Complex-Propane — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$108.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$11.5K

Hit rate

73.1%

Resolved

183

Trades

7,621

lifetime

Volume

$4.89M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$642

Open exposure

$117.9K

8 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 10-14 12:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 67 days

Categories

Politics

63% 79% +$38,373

Other

26% 71% -$160,705

Crypto

6% 100% +$7,996

Sports

3% 67% +$5,848

Tech

2% 100% +$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 129 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+136,943	$48,909	34¢	$47.2K	-$1,664	10-09 18:39
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+452,654	$45,240	8¢	$38.5K	-$6,765	10-10 23:30
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	+47,833	$17,777	34¢	$16.5K	-$1,274	10-14 12:14
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	+183,680	$15,872	8¢	$13.8K	-$2,096	10-14 01:56
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+4,356	$1,263	40¢	$1.7K	+$479	09-10 04:57
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+2,427	$316	8¢	$206	-$109	09-09 13:24
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	+$0	05-24 05:02
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	+0	$50	8¢	$0	-$50	07-31 19:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	334	$544.5K	386,072	296,490	+89,582	Yes	+$4,409	06-15 05:00
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	34	$274.2K	282,786	17,386	+265,400	No	+$3,035	06-02 22:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	199	$264.4K	162,889	162,889	+0	open	—	09-25 18:55
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	163	$254.8K	274,340	0	+274,340	Yes	+$19,554	06-15 04:43
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	391	$190.0K	17,111	257,125	-240,014	Yes	-$56,596	07-29 17:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	147	$177.5K	128,245	96,597	+31,648	No	-$4,770	05-31 17:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	180	$170.0K	121,380	96,062	+25,318	No	+$5,629	05-27 02:02
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026?	28	$168.9K	180,113	10	+180,103	No	-$550	07-10 10:43
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	325	$148.7K	106,215	106,215	+0	Yes	+$11,078	06-12 22:49
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	199	$142.9K	23,500	201,065	-177,565	No	-$40,850	07-29 17:37
iran closes its airspace by june 8	203	$130.9K	126,750	64,424	+62,326	Yes	-$9,213	06-07 23:00
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	113	$120.8K	90,000	40,000	+50,000	No	+$1,661	06-07 12:47
will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	27	$119.8K	60,000	60,000	+0	Yes	+$30	06-09 17:33
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026?	46	$102.2K	103,370	752	+102,618	No	+$72	07-10 10:38
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	1	$99.9K	100,000	0	+100,000	No	+$100	06-25 03:06
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	290	$96.8K	191,673	35,251	+156,422	No	+$6,008	07-18 07:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	99	$66.5K	75,000	30,000	+45,000	Yes	+$24,681	06-14 15:37
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	30	$62.1K	36,072	36,072	+0	No	+$4,990	06-12 13:10
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	104	$55.3K	59,360	10,108	+49,251	Yes	+$8,575	08-11 09:18
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	19	$51.3K	40,000	15,000	+25,000	No	+$2,740	06-15 23:42
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	64	$51.1K	28,000	28,000	+0	No	+$4,311	07-01 04:55
israel closes its airspace by june 9	17	$49.2K	25,259	25,259	+0	No	-$9	06-09 21:42
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	206	$48.9K	136,943	0	+136,943	open	—	10-09 18:39
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	528	$47.5K	402,185	0	+402,185	No	-$47,459	06-07 19:29
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	66	$45.3K	22,802	80,000	-57,198	Team Spirit	-$32,468	08-23 06:39
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	531	$45.2K	452,654	0	+452,654	open	—	10-10 23:30
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	32	$44.6K	93,000	5,000	+87,999	No	+$14	06-28 15:18
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	38	$41.4K	28,346	18,346	+10,000	No	+$850	05-29 18:57
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	59	$40.3K	21,893	25,784	-3,890	No	+$1,180	05-30 09:26
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	57	$38.7K	31,360	11,360	+20,000	No	+$3,429	09-27 08:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 12:14:53	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	7,833	38¢	$2,977	0x270827…
10-14 01:56:25	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	12,579	9¢	$1,132	0x76be1a…
10-10 23:30:46	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	13,314	9¢	$1,198	0xc94ca1…
10-10 23:20:55	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x1ec06f…
10-10 23:16:33	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	500	9¢	$45	0xd3bd58…
10-10 23:15:00	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	3,000	9¢	$270	0xe81179…
10-10 23:11:03	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	396	9¢	$36	0x5cde07…
10-10 23:00:24	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	198	9¢	$18	0x7bfa25…
10-10 22:55:00	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	603	9¢	$54	0x9f2816…
10-10 22:23:39	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x37a89c…
10-10 21:00:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0xe81ae0…
10-10 20:46:54	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	28	9¢	$2	0x29f79e…
10-10 20:08:40	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x2a8c8d…
10-10 19:17:34	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x6223d3…
10-10 18:52:18	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x563e0a…
10-10 18:47:36	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1,500	9¢	$135	0xa96b58…
10-10 18:21:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0xeb8e40…
10-10 18:21:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x346a8e…
10-10 18:21:54	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	45	9¢	$4	0xde7243…
10-10 18:21:43	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xccc73f…
10-10 18:21:43	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0x190cdb…
10-10 18:21:42	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5,000	9¢	$450	0xf6db3b…
10-10 17:55:49	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	7	9¢	$1	0x59fc85…
10-10 17:32:07	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	335	9¢	$30	0x372755…
10-10 17:30:49	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	231	9¢	$21	0x354d34…
10-10 16:13:40	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x804b23…
10-10 16:04:34	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	2,362	9¢	$213	0x854622…
10-10 15:32:18	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1,351	9¢	$122	0x49d9b4…
10-10 14:57:43	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	29	9¢	$3	0x9a44ff…
10-10 14:44:54	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	709	9¢	$64	0x71582b…
10-10 14:44:21	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x0ee5e1…
10-10 14:44:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0x6d7f53…
10-10 14:43:10	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1,427	9¢	$128	0x97de70…
10-10 14:20:31	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	250	9¢	$22	0x4fff54…
10-10 14:17:16	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	64	9¢	$6	0x404aea…
10-10 13:42:55	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x15f143…
10-10 13:42:45	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x631d3c…
10-10 13:11:06	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	10,989	9¢	$989	0xbbba6f…
10-10 12:53:52	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x6fca53…
10-10 12:36:21	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0xac6bd0…
10-10 12:28:16	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0xe96b07…
10-10 12:19:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x76864e…
10-10 12:03:48	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	114	9¢	$10	0xc455f2…
10-10 11:57:10	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0x40457f…
10-10 11:52:10	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x1f104a…
10-10 11:42:13	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	549	9¢	$49	0x6fdbdd…
10-10 10:51:39	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xa19f57…
10-10 10:48:12	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xcd075d…
10-10 10:20:42	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x35967f…
10-10 09:26:27	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	66	9¢	$6	0xbd281e…
10-10 09:12:37	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	110	9¢	$10	0x62f5b5…
10-10 08:42:49	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	150	9¢	$14	0xd0b30b…
10-10 08:28:03	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0xfe7a91…
10-10 08:26:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x736904…
10-10 08:01:30	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x815b2c…
10-10 08:00:33	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xf49a51…
10-10 07:32:37	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	889	9¢	$80	0xc9b6cd…
10-10 07:14:07	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xfcf1ae…
10-10 07:06:22	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	32	9¢	$3	0x085b4c…
10-10 07:03:07	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	514	9¢	$46	0x804b68…
10-10 06:22:21	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	122	9¢	$11	0xbbdb02…
10-10 05:30:10	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	411	9¢	$37	0xdaa6d5…
10-10 05:24:39	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xfaf7b7…
10-10 03:50:04	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	547	9¢	$49	0xb18421…
10-10 03:33:15	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x608bb6…
10-10 03:24:36	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1,099	9¢	$99	0xb3e660…
10-10 03:14:45	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xe5ab97…
10-10 02:22:00	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x8e9c6e…
10-10 01:53:11	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x06d7d6…
10-09 23:37:14	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xd461ff…
10-09 23:13:47	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	7	9¢	$1	0x8f95eb…
10-09 22:57:53	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	319	9¢	$29	0x59e50f…
10-09 22:57:47	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x8dd57d…
10-09 22:57:47	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	41	9¢	$4	0x350acf…
10-09 22:53:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	215	9¢	$19	0xc3df92…
10-09 19:49:29	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	24	9¢	$2	0x0fe7f6…
10-09 19:07:43	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x367c36…
10-09 18:39:37	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0xef88b2…
10-09 18:39:34	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	83	38¢	$31	0xdfaaa6…
10-09 18:12:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x49b692…
10-09 18:07:10	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	12,000	37¢	$4,440	0x6ff2af…
10-09 17:59:38	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0xa328a4…
10-09 17:20:29	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x50b46c…
10-09 17:09:32	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	176	9¢	$16	0xc10a1b…
10-09 16:51:53	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0x03db60…
10-09 16:44:07	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0x31d968…
10-09 16:34:17	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0x928226…
10-09 15:53:10	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x8a2b4a…
10-09 15:37:21	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	110	9¢	$10	0x43c00b…
10-09 15:26:18	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	11,000	9¢	$990	0xc9695e…
10-09 15:05:46	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xdc44e9…
10-09 14:59:48	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	3,888	9¢	$350	0x3e8246…
10-09 14:04:43	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x9a6c02…
10-09 13:52:03	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0x1451c5…
10-09 13:37:30	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	268	9¢	$24	0x79ff42…
10-09 13:08:21	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	41	9¢	$4	0x6033f7…
10-09 12:45:07	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0x90309a…
10-09 12:40:28	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xe31ad7…
10-09 12:20:31	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x3bed31…
10-09 12:19:28	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0xb44101…