Bouncy-Oats — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

95.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$72

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 10-09 15:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Politics

47% 100% +$0

Other

40% 88% -$25

Crypto

6% 100% +$0

Sports

5% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+70	$65	89¢	$63	-$2	09-13 19:36
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+70	$5	11¢	$7	+$2	09-13 11:28
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+60	$1	3¢	$2	+$0	08-13 14:54
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+70	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	07-10 11:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	4	$140	140	140	+0	No	+$0	07-21 23:17
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$127	75	75	+0	open	—	06-15 20:57
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	8	$120	120	120	+0	No	+$0	06-22 17:37
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	3	$118	120	60	+60	open	—	08-25 12:23
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$112	70	70	+0	open	—	07-04 21:01
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$75	150	0	+150	No	+$0	06-28 02:46
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$70	140	0	+140	open	—	09-13 19:36
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$68	68	0	+68	No	+$0	04-26 10:46
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	3	$65	100	100	+0	open	—	05-25 22:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-19 19:23
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	1	$46	46	0	+46	No	+$0	05-13 10:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	05-05 10:21
will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	2	$38	100	100	+0	No	-$26	06-14 21:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	04-29 20:50
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$29	60	60	+0	open	—	05-22 19:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	04-29 20:51
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	04-29 20:51
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?	4	$19	40	0	+40	No	+$1	05-24 18:14
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	05-22 19:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in August?	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	08-24 20:38
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	06-15 20:30
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 27?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	04-26 10:43
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	06-21 21:50
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 14?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	05-13 12:24
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 14?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	05-13 11:37
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$12	12	0	+12	Yes	+$0	04-29 20:52
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	04-29 20:53
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	04-26 10:44
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	08-01 20:45
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	07-13 19:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 15:55:25	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0xde2e92…
09-13 19:36:04	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	70	92¢	$65	0xa91721…
09-13 11:28:00	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	70	8¢	$5	0xb88a3d…
09-13 08:37:40	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x7e359f…
08-25 12:23:21	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	60	97¢	$58	0x0db05e…
08-24 20:38:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in August?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xc135ce…
08-17 02:59:07	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$58	0x7a26bb…
08-13 14:54:24	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x09631f…
08-12 19:59:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x93d754…
08-02 17:34:59	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0x06923f…
08-01 20:45:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x2e5eff…
07-25 19:56:21	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0c89a9…
07-21 23:17:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	70	2¢	$2	0x71562c…
07-20 15:34:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	70	98¢	$68	0xa11b1d…
07-17 07:35:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0xa7b5ad…
07-13 20:32:13	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0x97a771…
07-13 19:55:46	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x170c56…
07-10 11:26:59	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0x90ff4b…
07-09 17:32:43	ufc gsteve eli10 2026 07 11	Gable Steveson	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x57ee1d…
07-09 17:30:23	spy up or down on july 9 2026	Up	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xf4f9c2…
07-04 21:01:02	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	70	80¢	$56	0x05546d…
07-04 20:56:08	cs2 paina bsta 2026 07 04	BESTIA Academy	BUY	2	76¢	$1	0xbe749e…
07-02 15:13:20	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	70	80¢	$56	0xa056cf…
07-02 09:14:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 3?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd7df94…
06-28 02:46:29	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0x27b38e…
06-28 02:36:22	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xdf5623…
06-27 19:13:08	mlb nyy bos 2026 06 27	Boston Red Sox	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x8490d4…
06-22 17:37:46	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	60	25¢	$15	0x2b0527…
06-21 22:50:55	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	3	75¢	$3	0x6268a6…
06-21 22:45:52	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xf9b5f1…
06-21 22:08:22	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	11	75¢	$8	0x1ff8c0…
06-21 21:50:25	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd2613b…
06-21 21:47:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0xb39a12…
06-21 21:45:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	33	75¢	$24	0xce5d33…
06-18 13:42:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0x5b4716…
06-16 20:55:49	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0xbbda8e…
06-16 20:51:47	atp kicker coria 2026 06 15	Nicolas Kicker	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xf5dffc…
06-15 20:57:13	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	75	84¢	$63	0xbd9eaa…
06-15 20:30:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x4fc0d7…
06-14 21:41:13	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	75	85¢	$64	0xc24322…
06-14 21:26:42	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x660cc3…
06-04 08:52:21	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x929e26…
05-25 22:04:43	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xd2c6b5…
05-25 22:04:27	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0xdbbaa3…
05-24 18:14:07	FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x9ce966…
05-24 18:13:46	FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x770189…
05-24 00:05:37	FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?	No	BUY	18	51¢	$9	0xc02a11…
05-23 02:38:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xab6d72…
05-23 01:48:33	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	97	33¢	$32	0xf06537…
05-22 21:20:25	FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6b9190…
05-22 19:56:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9fd113…
05-22 19:52:41	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	60	24¢	$14	0xd25d86…
05-19 21:18:34	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0xbee6e3…
05-19 19:23:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x3f8e91…
05-13 12:24:46	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 14?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xbcda56…
05-13 11:37:23	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 14?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xee7c86…
05-13 10:45:49	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x721bae…
05-13 10:04:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x2c99bb…
05-05 10:21:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x951dce…
05-05 10:20:52	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x62f0a2…
04-29 20:53:34	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x604a5a…
04-29 20:53:08	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x111b2a…
04-29 20:52:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x22f9e1…
04-29 20:51:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xfdb0b6…
04-29 20:51:20	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x27c044…
04-29 20:50:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xcd3ef4…
04-29 20:49:12	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9b2ec8…
04-26 10:47:24	Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff	Sorana Cirstea	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x7d8b59…
04-26 10:46:14	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0xdf92d3…
04-26 10:45:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x16fbac…
04-26 10:44:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc3bcb4…
04-26 10:44:26	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on April 27?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x344ea8…
04-26 10:43:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 27?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x179aae…