Optimistic-Analogue — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$47

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.1%

Resolved

537

Trades

1,410

lifetime

Volume

$7.60K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 10-16 20:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 112 days

Categories

Other

98% 33% +$55

Politics

1% 0% -$1

Sports

1% 57% +$6

Crypto

0% 0% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 9?	5	$251	246	246	+0	Yes	+$193	05-09 13:32
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 12?	21	$124	628	430	+198	No	-$28	05-12 08:07
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4?	7	$118	127	127	+0	Yes	-$65	06-04 14:29
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 25?	2	$100	68	68	+0	Yes	+$36	07-25 20:56
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 10?	3	$95	68	68	+0	Yes	+$40	05-10 19:21
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 22?	2	$90	62	62	+0	Yes	+$33	07-22 19:54
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 16?	7	$87	119	119	+0	Yes	+$76	07-16 21:44
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15?	5	$82	62	62	+0	Yes	+$19	06-15 16:40
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 15?	2	$75	50	50	+0	Yes	+$25	05-15 17:47
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 20?	3	$71	46	46	+0	Yes	+$21	07-20 18:23
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 14?	2	$54	150	75	+75	No	-$28	05-13 18:17
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 11?	3	$52	137	0	+137	No	-$52	05-10 02:10
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 15?	2	$52	40	40	+0	Yes	+$28	07-15 17:12
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17?	3	$51	36	36	+0	Yes	+$21	06-17 19:07
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 13?	13	$50	159	0	+159	No	-$50	05-12 05:01
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 20?	2	$49	44	44	+0	Yes	+$40	07-20 18:23
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on May 5?	5	$48	64	0	+64	Yes	+$16	05-04 01:20
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	1	$45	67	0	+67	No	-$45	06-21 06:42
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1?	2	$44	78	39	+39	Yes	+$57	06-01 13:47
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 20?	4	$44	30	30	+0	Yes	+$16	07-20 19:47
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4?	2	$44	24	24	+0	No	+$4	06-04 12:39
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 27?	7	$43	129	126	+3	No	-$20	04-27 06:37
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10?	2	$43	32	32	+0	Yes	+$20	06-10 20:49
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 16?	10	$43	95	95	+0	Yes	-$1	05-15 21:33
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 15?	2	$41	264	132	+132	No	-$2	07-15 10:27
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on September 14?	2	$41	35	35	+0	Yes	+$29	09-14 15:53
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 25?	2	$40	32	32	+0	Yes	+$23	07-25 20:56
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 3?	3	$40	58	0	+58	Yes	+$18	05-02 01:20
highest temperature in madrid on april 21 2026 27c	7	$40	113	67	+46	No	+$5	04-21 15:30
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7?	5	$39	124	93	+31	Yes	+$42	05-07 11:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 20:31:38	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	24	76¢	$18	0xfeb546…
09-19 15:44:53	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$3	0xa0211f…
09-19 15:44:53	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	29	19¢	$6	0x9ac787…
09-19 15:44:44	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x568867…
09-18 12:03:33	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on September 19?	Yes	BUY	71	8¢	$6	0x531bcc…
09-18 12:03:31	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 19?	Yes	BUY	18	47¢	$9	0xd74d3d…
09-16 19:31:49	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	28	34¢	$10	0xbe3ecc…
09-16 19:31:49	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	28	34¢	$10	0x3bc422…
09-16 19:15:30	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x66cf22…
09-15 22:29:42	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	0	21¢	$0	0xfc6ef3…
09-15 20:51:19	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0x0c370b…
09-15 20:12:49	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x5839d6…
09-15 20:12:49	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	11	21¢	$2	0x511e96…
09-15 20:12:49	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0x41a417…
09-15 20:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0xb36842…
09-15 20:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x030cb5…
09-15 00:05:40	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x8c0c5b…
09-15 00:01:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x5aaea0…
09-14 22:25:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	16	8¢	$1	0x5a84ef…
09-14 22:08:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x7f9682…
09-14 20:54:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0xa38a2b…
09-14 20:54:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0xa0f0b3…
09-14 20:54:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x64655f…
09-14 20:54:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x220ebe…
09-14 15:53:39	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xb575f9…
09-13 10:21:57	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xceb9bd…
09-13 10:21:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x6d4cbd…
09-13 10:20:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x1369da…
09-13 10:20:54	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x785338…
09-13 10:20:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0xb0c633…
09-13 10:20:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x11ef82…
09-13 10:19:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0xe57234…
09-13 10:19:39	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x94d6c2…
09-13 10:19:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0xc60f02…
09-13 10:19:21	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x65fbe8…
09-13 10:19:12	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xfc2745…
09-13 10:18:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x092313…
09-13 10:18:49	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	35	16¢	$6	0x74737e…
09-13 10:18:49	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0x457ea6…
08-16 06:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	66	18¢	$12	0x33a920…
08-16 06:01:36	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x6ca990…
08-16 05:51:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xb83c3b…
08-16 05:51:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	69	7¢	$5	0x87dca1…
08-13 07:46:16	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	77	39¢	$30	0x35b739…
08-13 06:31:43	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x460c65…
08-13 06:31:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0x4359ed…
08-13 06:19:10	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	37	6¢	$2	0x0a2cdb…
08-13 06:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	13	6¢	$1	0xb8b0ee…
08-13 05:31:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0x56a642…
08-12 06:11:27	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	23	53¢	$12	0x434b20…
08-12 06:09:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0x3101ae…
08-12 05:51:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	18	9¢	$2	0x752272…
08-12 05:51:13	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	228	5¢	$11	0x80c754…
08-11 06:12:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	79	32¢	$25	0xd2a1f3…
08-11 06:10:36	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x63388a…
08-11 05:52:15	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xc371e7…
08-10 07:45:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	21	67¢	$14	0x7e768d…
08-10 07:24:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0x797187…
08-10 07:04:37	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	67	16¢	$11	0x684f66…
08-09 06:13:31	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	16	65¢	$10	0xb03b30…
08-09 05:53:28	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xe79603…
08-09 05:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	17	20¢	$3	0x764345…
08-09 05:35:55	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	14	20¢	$3	0x952ee9…
08-08 13:27:16	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 8?	Yes	SELL	23	26¢	$6	0x06f133…
08-08 06:04:09	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	27	58¢	$16	0xa58c5c…
08-08 05:51:10	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	79	15¢	$12	0xe8e487…
08-07 05:37:51	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	33	20¢	$7	0xd1460b…
08-07 05:37:46	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	47	56¢	$26	0x732840…
08-06 05:48:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x883b5f…
08-06 05:48:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0x6c9e4a…
08-06 05:48:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x542a76…
08-06 05:41:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	147	6¢	$9	0x37ca71…
07-31 16:55:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 31?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x282051…
07-31 16:55:09	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 31?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xde8e0b…
07-31 16:55:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 31?	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x9b2254…
07-30 17:36:57	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 30?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x6a74cb…
07-30 01:45:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0xae4213…
07-30 01:45:29	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x92d11d…
07-30 01:45:29	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	19	12¢	$2	0x83e178…
07-30 01:45:29	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x09d74a…
07-30 01:00:47	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	22	3¢	$1	0x8a10d5…
07-30 01:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	42	3¢	$1	0x6a9b36…
07-30 00:20:27	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	25	14¢	$3	0xbc7945…
07-30 00:20:26	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x1cbceb…
07-29 06:09:38	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x2df7a6…
07-29 05:49:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	80	28¢	$22	0x04a185…
07-29 05:49:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	440	2¢	$9	0xe3fd27…
07-29 02:52:15	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x49a29c…
07-29 02:36:45	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x2575df…
07-29 01:45:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xbddad8…
07-29 01:45:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	18	23¢	$4	0x2c1b6b…
07-29 00:47:49	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3e1b6e…
07-29 00:20:28	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xcefc6d…
07-29 00:20:26	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	55	4¢	$2	0x7049dd…
07-28 10:02:37	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 28?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x89917c…
07-28 10:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 28?	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0xba96c2…
07-28 06:11:55	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	71	30¢	$21	0xef5010…
07-28 06:00:55	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xbb29fe…
07-28 05:51:22	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	69	10¢	$7	0xb571db…
07-28 05:50:54	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0xd4d2f7…