Forceful-Manufacturing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7.51K

Unrealized P&L

+$8.57K

Hit rate

76.2%

Resolved

Trades

921

lifetime

Volume

$795.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$864

Open exposure

$50.4K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-30 19:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Politics

67% 61% -$6,382

Other

32% 60% +$14,148

Sports

1% 100% +$193

Crypto

0% 0% -$449

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+31,952	$24,234	100¢	$32.0K	+$7,719	10-14 23:14
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	+8,025	$6,315	95¢	$7.6K	+$1,321	08-10 23:31
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+6,593	$4,943	85¢	$5.6K	+$661	09-20 20:42
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+176,407	$6,332	3¢	$5.2K	-$1,128	10-30 19:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	53	$82.4K	63,510	31,558	+31,952	open	—	10-14 23:14
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	72	$62.0K	31,691	34,172	-2,481	No	+$2,495	03-19 01:13
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	32	$50.9K	31,840	31,840	+0	No	+$862	06-28 01:29
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	9	$36.2K	18,467	18,467	+0	No	+$555	02-28 17:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	19	$33.4K	38,374	0	+38,374	No	+$4,987	03-26 19:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	24	$26.7K	14,871	14,871	+0	No	+$3,005	03-31 19:02
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	10	$26.4K	13,652	13,652	+0	No	+$17	03-03 04:17
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	14	$21.3K	10,962	10,962	+0	No	+$122	03-02 02:51
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	21	$21.2K	15,860	15,860	+0	open	—	09-16 23:27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	6	$20.4K	14,401	7,769	+6,632	No	+$662	08-30 20:05
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	12	$19.4K	2,300	17,339	-15,039	No	+$68	06-28 00:04
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$17.4K	18,137	0	+18,137	No	+$723	01-09 14:44
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	13	$17.4K	7,319	12,594	-5,274	No	-$1,758	02-07 09:08
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$16.4K	13,949	13,949	+0	Yes	-$464	09-09 19:43
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	26	$15.6K	54,997	0	+54,997	No	-$15,616	10-04 22:04
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	13	$14.7K	7,972	7,972	+0	Yes	+$1,217	08-26 01:01
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	24	$13.9K	8,948	8,948	+0	Yes	-$163	04-05 14:05
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	3	$13.7K	7,292	7,292	+0	Yes	-$24	02-19 01:27
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	5	$10.3K	7,200	7,200	+0	open	—	07-31 19:06
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	3	$10.2K	5,162	5,162	+0	No	+$105	06-28 15:45
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	7	$10.1K	6,744	6,744	+0	No	-$2,007	08-30 22:48
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	8	$10.0K	5,788	5,788	+0	Yes	+$463	04-05 17:33
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	40	$9.6K	7,958	7,958	+0	Yes	-$20	01-28 10:29
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	7	$9.3K	6,650	6,650	+0	Yes	-$15	09-16 22:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	8	$9.0K	15,015	15,015	+0	No	-$3,926	09-11 13:15
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	19	$8.8K	7,311	6,205	+1,106	Yes	+$221	03-19 01:12
will henrique gouveia e melo win the 2026 portugal presidential election	5	$8.3K	4,302	4,302	+0	No	+$303	02-01 19:28
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$8.2K	4,348	4,348	+0	Yes	+$240	04-05 17:33
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	10	$8.2K	10,034	0	+10,034	Yes	+$1,840	08-22 19:48
will the department of homeland security receive full year funding by february 28 2026	17	$8.2K	4,279	4,279	+0	No	+$355	02-28 17:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 19:58:43	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	602	2¢	$15	0x863554…
10-30 18:16:15	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9,096	2¢	$209	0x7a3fb0…
10-30 03:40:57	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$44	0xb2232d…
10-30 00:39:10	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	267	2¢	$6	0xdf3795…
10-29 22:10:19	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,602	2¢	$97	0xb55a35…
10-29 21:22:55	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7,496	2¢	$147	0xf797d0…
10-29 17:17:29	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	157	32¢	$50	0x5729ed…
10-29 17:13:43	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7,496	3¢	$258	0x68c916…
10-29 17:12:40	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5,097	2¢	$120	0x313eb0…
10-26 18:56:59	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9,664	3¢	$309	0x687f1e…
10-21 01:29:12	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,390	2¢	$29	0xfaedbe…
10-14 23:14:43	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x8aee5f…
10-12 18:50:53	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12,575	3¢	$377	0x28ad22…
10-12 18:50:23	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	410	90¢	$369	0xf244bd…
10-11 14:19:37	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	500	90¢	$450	0x04f93b…
10-04 22:29:20	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	No	BUY	7,247	1¢	$65	0xf485c3…
10-04 22:04:10	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,584	4¢	$130	0xd88f60…
10-04 22:04:10	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0x2d990f…
10-04 22:04:10	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x2aee35…
10-04 22:03:37	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6,329	4¢	$254	0x5d9b79…
10-04 22:03:13	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5,656	4¢	$226	0x7d4067…
10-04 22:03:07	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,760	4¢	$188	0x37edbb…
10-04 22:02:31	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0xa9fc83…
10-04 21:30:49	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,272	9¢	$114	0x31fcd5…
10-04 21:30:46	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	536	9¢	$48	0x879176…
10-04 21:30:43	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8,812	9¢	$793	0xdb37b0…
10-04 21:30:19	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,070	92¢	$984	0xcc261f…
10-04 21:05:50	Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 47% and 50% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	217	10¢	$23	0x587d4f…
10-04 20:51:37	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,514	21¢	$961	0x2c0411…
10-04 20:51:01	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,100	93¢	$1,023	0x982f30…
10-04 20:50:37	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	73	24¢	$18	0x3d5a19…
10-04 20:04:32	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,450	69¢	$997	0xb2bc0c…
10-04 20:03:52	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,100	93¢	$1,023	0xd4deda…
10-04 19:55:58	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,616	67¢	$1,083	0x22122b…
10-04 19:55:22	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,200	93¢	$1,116	0x9985ca…
10-04 19:22:32	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,507	67¢	$1,009	0x1c838c…
10-04 19:22:13	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,100	93¢	$1,023	0x3d4ffb…
10-04 11:19:59	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,614	61¢	$1,594	0xaac283…
10-04 11:19:16	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,750	93¢	$1,628	0x3f1351…
10-04 10:51:34	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	840	61¢	$512	0x9a50f0…
10-04 10:51:07	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	560	93¢	$521	0x1a8fcd…
10-04 10:08:38	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,261	61¢	$769	0x0d9675…
10-04 10:08:14	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	840	93¢	$781	0x71ec6c…
10-04 09:56:56	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,269	61¢	$1,384	0xb171fe…
10-04 09:55:55	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,500	93¢	$1,395	0x149eeb…
10-04 09:29:59	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	14,082	4¢	$522	0x630e8d…
10-04 09:29:31	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	600	93¢	$558	0x4d1918…
10-03 10:11:32	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	90	5¢	$4	0xeb508c…
10-02 20:43:26	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	21	92¢	$19	0xa836c5…
10-02 12:42:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	42	74¢	$31	0x3da14f…
10-02 12:42:20	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xf584ed…
10-02 09:31:17	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	142	73¢	$103	0xe09735…
10-02 09:31:03	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	120	92¢	$110	0xaecc60…
10-01 17:44:32	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	No	BUY	1,050	71¢	$746	0xb30dad…
10-01 17:44:03	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	350	92¢	$322	0xbacec0…
10-01 17:43:29	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	400	92¢	$368	0x9103fc…
10-01 17:42:21	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	423	71¢	$300	0xdaeef0…
10-01 17:41:54	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	400	92¢	$368	0x48b174…
10-01 17:35:45	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x77f643…
10-01 17:33:53	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,520	71¢	$1,079	0x06b90d…
10-01 17:33:18	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,250	92¢	$1,150	0xf13eb0…
10-01 09:54:30	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	136	72¢	$98	0x682eb2…
10-01 09:53:51	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0xcb1964…
10-01 09:49:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	72¢	$43	0x549b5e…
10-01 09:48:44	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x193437…
10-01 09:47:53	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x6d6ae0…
10-01 09:47:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	110	92¢	$101	0x3a0272…
10-01 09:43:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,146	72¢	$1,544	0xbdf99e…
10-01 09:42:11	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,680	92¢	$1,546	0x51cc76…
10-01 09:38:36	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,259	5¢	$63	0xb32c09…
10-01 09:36:12	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5,500	70¢	$3,850	0x8373eb…
10-01 09:35:26	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	4,300	92¢	$3,956	0x5df665…
10-01 08:50:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,401	71¢	$2,415	0x3bc17e…
10-01 08:49:45	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	2,700	92¢	$2,484	0x495231…
09-30 09:45:26	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0xdc071e…
09-29 09:03:41	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,322	5¢	$225	0x95b43d…
09-29 09:03:03	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	245	92¢	$225	0xccb111…
09-28 20:33:02	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,235	5¢	$171	0x975e77…
09-28 20:32:30	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x668d86…
09-28 17:32:53	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	428	6¢	$24	0x3837aa…
09-28 15:41:26	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	385	92¢	$354	0xc6c908…
09-22 19:17:43	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	152	6¢	$9	0x68de19…
09-22 18:23:55	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,500	27¢	$405	0x409760…
09-22 18:23:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	436	92¢	$401	0x3566b2…
09-22 18:11:00	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,976	6¢	$235	0xfa4ebf…
09-22 18:08:54	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	280	91¢	$255	0x3a22ec…
09-20 23:35:05	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	49	6¢	$3	0xe9e359…
09-20 20:53:04	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	893	6¢	$53	0xf5ac8b…
09-20 20:52:35	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0xe0be3a…
09-20 20:42:50	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,593	75¢	$4,943	0x3a25ba…
09-20 20:41:40	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	866	6¢	$50	0x98a11e…
09-20 20:40:50	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5,500	92¢	$5,060	0xc192f0…
09-18 19:49:52	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	144	52¢	$75	0x5ee48f…
09-18 19:49:25	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	691	51¢	$352	0x447e2d…
09-18 16:24:09	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7,000	5¢	$357	0x9a4d1c…
09-16 23:38:19	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2,300	89¢	$2,047	0x5a28e7…
09-16 23:35:13	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	62	6¢	$4	0x7d4eff…
09-16 23:35:04	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	324	6¢	$19	0xca8b8d…
09-16 23:34:54	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,087	5¢	$53	0xcb8aea…
09-16 23:27:33	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	2,287	64¢	$1,464	0x1a1327…