Conscious-Ambiguity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$3.69K

Hit rate

63.5%

Resolved

152

Trades

3,252

lifetime

Volume

$713.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$219

Open exposure

$5.14K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-05 07:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Politics

67% 51% -$18,349

Other

30% 50% -$6,251

Tech

2% 17% -$324

Crypto

1% 50% +$139

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-05).

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	-4,938	-$2,063	94¢	$-4666	-$2,603	05-11 20:45
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-2,689	-$834	18¢	$-471	+$363	05-02 04:16
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	+0	$598	80¢	$0	-$598	06-22 19:04
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$853	6¢	$0	-$853	06-01 22:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	10	$31.1K	19,500	19,500	+0	No	+$1,230	05-16 06:09
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	101	$25.9K	21,009	14,009	+7,000	Yes	-$4,754	06-04 11:06
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	20	$24.4K	15,026	10,000	+5,026	No	+$436	01-29 01:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	106	$23.2K	34,200	23,000	+11,200	No	+$2,284	05-13 07:23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	49	$20.5K	26,167	19,876	+6,290	Yes	-$3,277	06-06 11:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	58	$18.1K	10,853	10,853	+0	No	+$817	05-22 09:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	161	$16.1K	9,000	9,000	+0	No	+$1,170	05-12 05:25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	13	$14.6K	9,260	9,260	+0	No	+$3,632	06-24 23:11
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	59	$13.0K	17,071	10,596	+6,475	No	+$5,914	03-28 10:37
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	86	$12.4K	19,023	11,523	+7,500	No	-$2,800	04-26 04:55
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	59	$11.9K	13,552	13,552	+0	open	—	06-01 22:45
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	34	$11.6K	6,237	6,300	-63	No	+$941	01-16 16:20
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$11.6K	6,321	6,321	+0	No	+$847	06-24 01:28
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	40	$11.4K	13,000	0	+13,000	No	+$1,550	06-09 11:41
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	38	$10.8K	17,486	10,109	+7,377	Yes	-$2,034	05-01 04:01
us forces in venezuela again by january 31 2026	57	$10.7K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$600	01-17 08:04
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	9	$10.6K	13,098	13,098	+0	Yes	-$10,178	02-28 07:19
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	148	$10.4K	16,841	16,973	-132	Yes	-$1,908	03-30 07:52
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	149	$10.3K	0	14,796	-14,796	No	-$4,456	06-01 11:39
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	6	$9.6K	5,029	5,029	+0	No	+$375	07-27 08:03
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	7	$9.5K	21,000	16,017	+4,983	Yes	-$3,937	04-07 23:20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	36	$9.4K	9,610	9,610	+0	open	—	06-27 08:03
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 9 994	9	$9.3K	4,744	4,744	+0	No	+$171	01-09 05:15
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	60	$8.6K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$450	02-13 20:53
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	14	$8.5K	9,433	4,533	+4,900	No	+$172	06-11 08:25
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	73	$8.1K	8,632	8,632	+0	open	—	06-22 19:04
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	6	$8.0K	6,058	3,029	+3,029	No	+$948	07-11 03:39
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	4	$7.9K	8,233	0	+8,233	No	+$362	07-12 00:45
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	3	$7.7K	4,150	4,150	+0	No	+$531	05-19 04:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$7.6K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	+$276	04-04 00:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 07:01:11	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	1,384	9¢	$125	0xa500bc…
08-05 07:01:11	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	1,111	9¢	$100	0x70b0ae…
08-05 07:00:48	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	556	9¢	$50	0x835ffd…
08-05 06:55:54	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0xf3a128…
08-05 06:16:14	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x8b60f1…
08-05 06:13:53	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	4,219	11¢	$465	0x370aa3…
08-05 06:13:38	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	2,874	9¢	$259	0x10069b…
08-05 03:35:56	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	955	15¢	$143	0xd7b78b…
08-05 03:35:41	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	3,637	15¢	$548	0xd04b32…
08-05 03:34:30	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	1,480	10¢	$144	0xbab0a5…
08-05 03:34:29	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	499	9¢	$45	0x2192f6…
08-05 03:34:02	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	419	12¢	$50	0xd3acb4…
08-05 03:34:02	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	3,800	13¢	$490	0x7e67a2…
07-30 04:27:48	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	502	24¢	$121	0x4907e5…
07-27 08:03:10	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	5,029	100¢	$5,009	0xacfeff…
07-27 04:38:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	816	22¢	$180	0x4c838c…
07-27 04:37:22	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	500	22¢	$110	0x105e02…
07-27 03:38:37	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	382	22¢	$84	0x795718…
07-26 01:04:49	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	176	10¢	$18	0x8f8e6e…
07-26 01:04:33	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	Yes	SELL	255	11¢	$28	0x6b8533…
07-26 00:57:51	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	Yes	SELL	764	15¢	$114	0x73d324…
07-26 00:57:31	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	176	11¢	$19	0xd0bafb…
07-26 00:57:24	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	1,054	11¢	$116	0xef623b…
07-25 09:26:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	468	12¢	$56	0xc7e766…
07-25 09:25:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	843	83¢	$700	0x9b7f3a…
07-25 09:24:22	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	3,502	82¢	$2,872	0x6d05d6…
07-25 09:24:03	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	4,400	41¢	$1,804	0xa2eb10…
07-25 09:23:46	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xcf24bd…
07-25 09:23:46	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	221	40¢	$88	0xa603fa…
07-25 09:17:36	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	1,580	82¢	$1,300	0xad16dd…
07-25 09:16:13	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	865	81¢	$700	0xa3e8f7…
07-25 09:15:39	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x217a05…
07-25 09:15:33	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x310789…
07-25 09:15:27	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x671887…
07-25 09:15:21	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x7736d9…
07-25 09:15:16	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	37	40¢	$15	0xb2d70a…
07-25 09:15:09	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0x59ef08…
07-25 09:15:03	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	491	40¢	$196	0x7580ff…
07-25 09:13:43	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	1,750	80¢	$1,400	0x88cf73…
07-25 09:13:33	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	2,857	50¢	$1,425	0xab105b…
07-25 09:11:46	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	326	37¢	$121	0xe09d45…
07-25 09:09:24	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	1,707	82¢	$1,400	0x635514…
07-25 09:08:49	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	2,334	37¢	$872	0xc69fc6…
07-25 09:07:22	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	624	12¢	$75	0x029ca0…
07-25 09:07:01	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	Yes	SELL	340	20¢	$68	0xb71b24…
07-25 09:06:51	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	833	13¢	$105	0x22b02c…
07-25 09:06:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	1,110	13¢	$148	0xbe52a1…
07-25 09:05:12	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	Yes	SELL	200	22¢	$44	0x63e185…
07-25 09:04:58	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	Yes	SELL	1,000	23¢	$230	0xfa8582…
07-25 09:04:39	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	2,628	2¢	$53	0x7efa80…
07-21 23:40:46	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	625	96¢	$600	0x39602b…
07-21 23:39:36	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	36	72¢	$26	0xc95701…
07-21 23:39:30	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	798	72¢	$573	0x70e761…
07-21 23:38:07	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	94	91¢	$85	0xdedb79…
07-21 05:42:25	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	742	98¢	$723	0xf45c4e…
07-21 05:41:04	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x513337…
07-21 05:40:27	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x7d25a0…
07-21 05:37:48	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x0951e7…
07-21 04:57:49	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	6	97¢	$5	0x075d38…
07-21 03:34:01	Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xd41948…
07-21 03:27:43	Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$50	0x6682fa…
07-21 03:10:24	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x498b44…
07-21 03:07:34	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x1364af…
07-21 03:05:10	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xa2ad62…
07-21 03:01:34	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x6576a7…
07-21 02:56:45	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	1,000	98¢	$975	0x9fe960…
07-21 02:23:06	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x284800…
07-21 02:16:39	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	69	98¢	$67	0xa9cad2…
07-21 02:14:31	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	75	98¢	$73	0xef0ae1…
07-21 02:14:28	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x6b6058…
07-21 01:07:34	Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	No	SELL	66	98¢	$65	0xe61520…
07-21 01:05:43	Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	No	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0x8d8179…
07-21 01:01:33	Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	No	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0xcc573d…
07-20 23:34:16	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	1,578	26¢	$413	0x6f87ab…
07-19 08:03:21	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	856	54¢	$460	0x2b4cff…
07-19 04:08:09	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	432	92¢	$400	0x84b426…
07-19 04:07:55	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	57	92¢	$53	0x32a602…
07-19 04:07:43	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	57	92¢	$53	0xd78978…
07-19 04:07:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1,247	92¢	$1,151	0x14c3c9…
07-19 04:07:16	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	2,349	37¢	$869	0x645016…
07-19 04:06:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x8bc5db…
07-19 04:04:09	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	203	35¢	$71	0x98cada…
07-19 04:02:19	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	3,235	92¢	$2,977	0xcac18b…
07-19 04:01:48	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	4,432	36¢	$1,574	0x5c3559…
07-19 03:49:34	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	931	54¢	$505	0x194012…
07-19 03:44:07	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	SELL	236	86¢	$203	0xcb03b0…
07-19 03:43:15	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	SELL	8	87¢	$7	0x2db79a…
07-19 03:42:54	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x61dccb…
07-19 03:42:52	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	SELL	1,367	87¢	$1,190	0x3a3e08…
07-19 03:42:40	israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	Yes	SELL	109	31¢	$34	0x5177bb…
07-19 03:31:00	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	171	55¢	$95	0xfd9c50…
07-19 03:29:34	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	573	56¢	$321	0x655ba5…
07-19 03:24:49	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	98	55¢	$54	0x967371…
07-19 03:20:34	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	170	78¢	$132	0x7860a4…
07-19 03:19:31	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	BUY	93	88¢	$82	0xb45097…
07-19 03:19:31	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	BUY	729	88¢	$641	0x8de2a1…
07-19 03:18:09	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	1,600	78¢	$1,248	0x18810e…
07-19 03:14:16	israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	Yes	BUY	109	31¢	$34	0xaaff25…
07-19 03:13:03	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	BUY	1,616	88¢	$1,420	0x08000f…
07-19 03:11:22	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	3,598	29¢	$1,038	0x8ca9bb…