Alive-Steeple — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$375

Unrealized P&L

-$102

Hit rate

71.3%

Resolved

133

Trades

680

lifetime

Volume

$31.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

$524

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 10-29 13:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Politics

86% 44% -$247

Other

13% 35% -$15

Sports

0% 0% -$114

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	+144	$130	90¢	$130	$0	10-06 14:16
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	+196	$98	66¢	$129	+$32	10-29 11:07
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+105	$90	99¢	$104	+$14	09-17 18:05
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	+46	$34	98¢	$45	+$11	10-27 21:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+79	$30	33¢	$26	-$4	08-29 22:22
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+37	$20	60¢	$22	+$2	10-29 09:19
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	+43	$25	36¢	$16	-$9	10-27 18:10
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	+129	$40	12¢	$15	-$25	08-09 22:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+111	$79	12¢	$13	-$66	08-13 01:00
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	+114	$35	10¢	$11	-$24	08-24 17:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+60	$15	14¢	$8	-$7	09-07 11:43
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+80	-$4	3¢	$2	+$6	10-26 22:28
Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	+85	$35	2¢	$2	-$33	10-29 13:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	35	$1.6K	1,979	1,979	+0	open	—	08-18 17:36
netanyahu out by march 31 854	7	$1.2K	641	641	+0	No	+$22	03-21 17:22
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	5	$1.1K	660	660	+0	Yes	+$167	03-03 09:08
will iran strike a gulf state on march 6	3	$986	632	632	+0	Yes	+$21	03-03 22:54
will iran strike israel on march 4	4	$934	505	505	+0	Yes	+$75	03-07 16:36
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	38	$827	3,435	2,639	+796	No	+$57	05-09 20:37
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	9	$792	674	511	+163	Yes	+$8	03-08 18:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	6	$657	411	411	+0	No	+$7	03-16 00:34
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	6	$644	442	442	+0	No	+$4	03-03 20:47
will iran strike israel on march 3	2	$640	397	397	+0	Yes	+$149	03-04 08:06
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	4	$633	384	384	+0	Yes	+$24	03-02 14:10
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	12	$571	492	492	+0	Yes	+$191	04-15 13:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	19	$553	664	664	+0	No	+$43	05-20 08:02
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	7	$526	1,507	1,294	+212	No	-$36	03-10 14:04
will uae strike iran by march 31	2	$515	708	0	+708	No	-$515	03-08 12:16
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	20	$515	1,356	1,356	+0	open	—	10-27 18:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	12	$471	852	741	+111	open	—	08-13 01:00
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	20	$469	1,112	645	+467	No	-$61	06-14 23:20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	4	$460	264	264	+0	No	-$20	05-06 09:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	17	$441	446	389	+56	No	+$28	05-24 17:05
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$440	364	364	+0	No	+$40	03-04 21:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$439	727	486	+241	Yes	+$171	05-03 14:04
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	13	$428	406	406	+0	Yes	+$88	04-25 18:10
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	4	$427	456	456	+0	Yes	+$67	03-01 18:33
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$411	221	221	+0	No	+$21	06-22 17:53
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$405	648	648	+0	Yes	+$5	06-10 11:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$398	231	231	+0	No	-$2	04-29 19:05
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	6	$338	296	296	+0	open	—	10-28 23:42
will iran strike a gulf state on march 4	2	$338	208	208	+0	Yes	+$20	03-03 14:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$324	170	170	+0	Yes	+$7	02-28 21:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:35:55	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x80c0f6…
10-29 11:07:02	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	40	61¢	$24	0x318f84…
10-29 09:44:01	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 2.75-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	48	31¢	$15	0xf10623…
10-29 09:40:49	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x13cc9b…
10-29 09:32:13	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0xa533b9…
10-29 09:28:53	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	72	42¢	$30	0xc829e3…
10-29 09:19:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xca07a9…
10-29 06:25:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	57	24¢	$14	0x945b0e…
10-28 23:44:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	BUY	126	79¢	$100	0x8b71aa…
10-28 23:42:46	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0x06698c…
10-28 23:42:34	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0x8b0246…
10-28 23:42:11	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	190	99¢	$189	0x67c13c…
10-28 10:21:29	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	45	70¢	$32	0x168cb4…
10-28 09:03:49	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	57	26¢	$15	0xe35430…
10-28 08:15:43	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	61	25¢	$15	0xe79f88…
10-28 00:46:51	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xafcf19…
10-28 00:25:09	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	29	41¢	$12	0x423e5b…
10-27 22:02:42	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xabf187…
10-27 21:41:17	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	54	46¢	$25	0x2c808e…
10-27 21:39:57	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	SELL	35	41¢	$14	0x1ae29d…
10-27 20:54:21	Will Together win 14-16 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	63	35¢	$22	0x18994f…
10-27 20:46:29	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	60	79¢	$48	0xd0b719…
10-27 20:33:48	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x52f86d…
10-27 20:30:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	96	73¢	$70	0xe2133e…
10-27 20:29:05	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	39	52¢	$20	0x9d8003…
10-27 20:20:24	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	85	7¢	$6	0xcd8a43…
10-27 20:20:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	48	41¢	$19	0x89afe5…
10-27 20:19:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	82	27¢	$22	0xef329a…
10-27 20:19:02	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	SELL	150	34¢	$52	0x4d9550…
10-27 20:00:44	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0x6b2c94…
10-27 19:57:59	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	180	33¢	$60	0x196b86…
10-27 18:15:00	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xd08f40…
10-27 18:14:39	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	45	26¢	$12	0x15a293…
10-27 18:14:15	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0xa58bac…
10-27 18:11:56	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x52089c…
10-27 18:10:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	37	42¢	$15	0xd076c0…
10-27 18:09:50	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x72cad5…
10-27 18:08:36	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	330	26¢	$87	0x3230f5…
10-27 15:04:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	82	22¢	$18	0x93422f…
10-27 13:15:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x175c67…
10-27 13:09:11	Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xd26483…
10-27 13:08:06	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0xd07422…
10-27 12:43:32	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xf41682…
10-27 12:30:24	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	130	73¢	$96	0x962c68…
10-27 12:29:56	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x1f1da2…
10-26 22:28:59	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x18e571…
10-26 11:46:44	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xb5233b…
10-25 12:20:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xca4aaf…
10-23 14:43:29	Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x5bee34…
10-22 20:08:09	Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xf50ab0…
10-22 20:07:57	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x2473d9…
10-22 20:07:06	Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x2cbe62…
10-22 20:03:08	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	107	42¢	$45	0x93efaa…
10-22 20:00:45	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	68	23¢	$16	0xd562b1…
10-22 12:59:56	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	49	21¢	$10	0x9f4436…
10-21 13:32:00	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	55	19¢	$11	0x9288dd…
10-20 16:23:38	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	91	21¢	$19	0x290bfc…
10-19 22:53:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0xb54ec7…
10-18 22:31:41	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x7f4487…
10-18 20:44:23	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xba9419…
10-18 20:44:06	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xa7a430…
10-18 16:43:15	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	47	23¢	$11	0xff3898…
10-18 09:46:48	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xe2c376…
10-15 05:37:11	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	80	17¢	$14	0x574743…
10-13 18:59:15	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	311	15¢	$47	0x2eb5f5…
10-13 18:58:46	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x829100…
10-13 18:58:09	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	210	17¢	$36	0x019b9d…
10-06 14:16:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	BUY	144	90¢	$130	0x0ae4eb…
09-23 22:47:01	Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x52c58a…
09-17 18:05:54	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	72	28¢	$20	0x0533e9…
09-17 18:05:40	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	105	86¢	$90	0xe126ec…
09-08 19:16:03	Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	Yes	BUY	137	2¢	$3	0x67c086…
09-08 08:50:27	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	136	11¢	$15	0x43e1c9…
09-07 11:43:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x033917…
09-03 21:04:24	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	323	14¢	$46	0xa4d02e…
09-03 20:54:45	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	No	SELL	117	87¢	$102	0x8e72e6…
09-03 16:01:31	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	No	BUY	117	4¢	$5	0xce7660…
08-31 14:02:06	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x774069…
08-29 22:22:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0x54aaa3…
08-24 17:45:55	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x2b4e4f…
08-24 17:39:01	Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x8a5cd5…
08-21 12:17:49	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	84	18¢	$15	0xf8aba3…
08-21 12:16:16	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	Yes	SELL	66	53¢	$35	0x601c98…
08-20 12:10:40	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	26	27¢	$7	0x263b5d…
08-20 12:10:25	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	Yes	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0xfb33a4…
08-20 12:09:04	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	75	27¢	$20	0x2ddbdb…
08-19 22:21:01	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	21¢	$11	0xca8ee1…
08-18 17:36:46	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	74¢	$81	0x9344a4…
08-18 12:12:54	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x5f25b8…
08-18 12:12:09	foreign intervention in gaza by september 30	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x8a88e6…
08-18 12:11:18	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	51	97¢	$50	0x9a9299…
08-15 19:06:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	90	78¢	$70	0xfd8f8c…
08-13 23:51:51	foreign intervention in gaza by september 30	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x53d929…
08-13 01:01:58	foreign intervention in gaza by september 30	Yes	BUY	60	12¢	$7	0xf2f4e1…
08-13 01:00:49	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	107	20¢	$21	0x54afa6…
08-12 13:42:34	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	51	78¢	$40	0x5af742…
08-12 13:35:30	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x3688c2…
08-12 08:57:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	17	67¢	$11	0xa51af5…
08-12 08:57:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	34	67¢	$23	0x73ef24…
08-11 21:16:34	iran full airspace closure by september 30 20260727170320670	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xbca168…