Alive-Steeple — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$31

Unrealized P&L

-$158

Hit rate

50.1%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

697 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$420

$31.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

$456

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 11-06 13:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Politics

86% 47% +$16

Other

14% 30% -$101

Sports

0% 0% -$114

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	+144	$130	95¢	$137	+$7	10-06 14:16
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?	No	+117	$90	78¢	$90	+$0	11-06 13:45
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	+119	$60	32¢	$39	-$21	11-05 08:43
Will Yair Lapid be the next Speaker of the Knesset?	No	+75	$50	44¢	$33	-$17	11-03 04:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+79	$30	36¢	$29	-$1	08-29 22:22
Will Together be in the next Israeli government?	No	+167	$50	17¢	$28	-$22	11-06 08:58
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	+43	$25	57¢	$25	+$0	10-27 18:10
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+79	$30	29¢	$23	-$7	11-05 18:12
Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	+32	$25	59¢	$19	-$6	10-29 09:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+111	$79	11¢	$12	-$67	08-13 01:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+60	$15	16¢	$9	-$6	09-07 11:43
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	+114	$35	8¢	$9	-$26	08-24 17:39
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+80	-$4	6¢	$4	+$8	10-26 22:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	35	$1.6K	1,979	1,979	+0	open	—	08-18 17:36
netanyahu out by march 31 854	7	$1.2K	641	641	+0	No	+$22	03-21 17:22
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	5	$1.1K	660	660	+0	Yes	+$167	03-03 09:08
will iran strike a gulf state on march 6	3	$986	632	632	+0	Yes	+$21	03-03 22:54
will iran strike israel on march 4	4	$934	505	505	+0	Yes	+$75	03-07 16:36
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	38	$827	3,435	2,639	+796	No	+$57	05-09 20:37
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	9	$792	674	511	+163	Yes	+$8	03-08 18:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	6	$657	411	411	+0	No	+$7	03-16 00:34
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	6	$644	442	442	+0	No	+$4	03-03 20:47
will iran strike israel on march 3	2	$640	397	397	+0	Yes	+$149	03-04 08:06
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	4	$633	384	384	+0	Yes	+$24	03-02 14:10
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	12	$571	492	492	+0	Yes	+$191	04-15 13:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	19	$553	664	664	+0	No	+$43	05-20 08:02
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	7	$526	1,507	1,294	+212	No	-$36	03-10 14:04
will uae strike iran by march 31	2	$515	708	0	+708	No	-$515	03-08 12:16
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	20	$515	1,356	1,356	+0	open	—	10-27 18:08
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	12	$471	852	741	+111	open	—	08-13 01:00
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	20	$469	1,112	645	+467	No	-$61	06-14 23:20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	4	$460	264	264	+0	No	-$20	05-06 09:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	17	$441	446	389	+56	No	+$28	05-24 17:05
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$440	364	364	+0	No	+$40	03-04 21:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$439	727	486	+241	Yes	+$171	05-03 14:04
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	13	$428	406	406	+0	Yes	+$88	04-25 18:10
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	4	$427	456	456	+0	Yes	+$67	03-01 18:33
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$411	221	221	+0	No	+$21	06-22 17:53
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$405	648	648	+0	Yes	+$5	06-10 11:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$398	231	231	+0	No	-$2	04-29 19:05
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	6	$338	296	296	+0	Yes	+$158	10-28 23:42
will iran strike a gulf state on march 4	2	$338	208	208	+0	Yes	+$20	03-03 14:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$324	170	170	+0	Yes	+$7	02-28 21:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 13:45:31	Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	77	78¢	$60	0x754c48…
11-06 08:58:52	Will Together be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0xd0907e…
11-05 18:12:36	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0x34d755…
11-05 08:43:45	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xb5ffa1…
11-04 12:37:42	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	84	95¢	$80	0x067287…
11-03 12:54:45	Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xc5e086…
11-03 04:34:03	Will Yair Lapid be the next Speaker of the Knesset?	No	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0xb9a08e…
11-02 13:04:31	Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	95	52¢	$50	0xce3509…
11-02 13:00:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	73	40¢	$29	0x1654b4…
11-02 07:00:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	15	80¢	$12	0xfda57b…
11-01 18:31:12	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	25	75¢	$19	0xdf4fff…
11-01 08:19:48	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	SELL	129	13¢	$17	0x79ca21…
10-31 22:12:52	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	73	34¢	$25	0xa0aeb8…
10-31 22:12:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	37	57¢	$21	0xe5c4ed…
10-31 22:11:40	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	249	4¢	$9	0x2bdaea…
10-31 16:15:22	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	25	64¢	$16	0xeeb5d3…
10-30 10:44:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	47	66¢	$31	0x8a9e09…
10-29 13:35:55	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x80c0f6…
10-29 11:07:02	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	40	61¢	$24	0x318f84…
10-29 09:44:01	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 2.75-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	48	31¢	$15	0xf10623…
10-29 09:40:49	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x13cc9b…
10-29 09:32:13	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0xa533b9…
10-29 09:28:53	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	72	42¢	$30	0xc829e3…
10-29 09:19:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xca07a9…
10-29 06:25:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	57	24¢	$14	0x945b0e…
10-28 23:44:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	BUY	126	79¢	$100	0x8b71aa…
10-28 23:42:46	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0x06698c…
10-28 23:42:34	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0x8b0246…
10-28 23:42:11	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	190	99¢	$189	0x67c13c…
10-28 10:21:29	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	45	70¢	$32	0x168cb4…
10-28 09:03:49	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	57	26¢	$15	0xe35430…
10-28 08:15:43	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	61	25¢	$15	0xe79f88…
10-28 00:46:51	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xafcf19…
10-28 00:25:09	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	29	41¢	$12	0x423e5b…
10-27 22:02:42	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0xabf187…
10-27 21:41:17	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	54	46¢	$25	0x2c808e…
10-27 21:39:57	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	SELL	35	41¢	$14	0x1ae29d…
10-27 20:54:21	Will Together win 14-16 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	63	35¢	$22	0x18994f…
10-27 20:46:29	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	60	79¢	$48	0xd0b719…
10-27 20:33:48	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x52f86d…
10-27 20:30:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	96	73¢	$70	0xe2133e…
10-27 20:29:05	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	39	52¢	$20	0x9d8003…
10-27 20:20:24	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	85	7¢	$6	0xcd8a43…
10-27 20:20:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	48	41¢	$19	0x89afe5…
10-27 20:19:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	82	27¢	$22	0xef329a…
10-27 20:19:02	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	SELL	150	34¢	$52	0x4d9550…
10-27 20:00:44	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0x6b2c94…
10-27 19:57:59	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	180	33¢	$60	0x196b86…
10-27 18:15:00	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xd08f40…
10-27 18:14:39	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	45	26¢	$12	0x15a293…
10-27 18:14:15	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0xa58bac…
10-27 18:11:56	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x52089c…
10-27 18:10:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	37	42¢	$15	0xd076c0…
10-27 18:09:50	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x72cad5…
10-27 18:08:36	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	330	26¢	$87	0x3230f5…
10-27 15:04:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	82	22¢	$18	0x93422f…
10-27 13:15:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x175c67…
10-27 13:09:11	Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xd26483…
10-27 13:08:06	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0xd07422…
10-27 12:43:32	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xf41682…
10-27 12:30:24	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	130	73¢	$96	0x962c68…
10-27 12:29:56	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x1f1da2…
10-26 22:28:59	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x18e571…
10-26 11:46:44	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xb5233b…
10-25 12:20:33	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xca4aaf…
10-23 14:43:29	Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x5bee34…
10-22 20:08:09	Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xf50ab0…
10-22 20:07:57	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x2473d9…
10-22 20:07:06	Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x2cbe62…
10-22 20:03:08	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	107	42¢	$45	0x93efaa…
10-22 20:00:45	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	68	23¢	$16	0xd562b1…
10-22 12:59:56	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	49	21¢	$10	0x9f4436…
10-21 13:32:00	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	55	19¢	$11	0x9288dd…
10-20 16:23:38	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	91	21¢	$19	0x290bfc…
10-19 22:53:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0xb54ec7…
10-18 22:31:41	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x7f4487…
10-18 20:44:23	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xba9419…
10-18 20:44:06	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xa7a430…
10-18 16:43:15	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	47	23¢	$11	0xff3898…
10-18 09:46:48	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xe2c376…
10-15 05:37:11	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	80	17¢	$14	0x574743…
10-13 18:59:15	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	311	15¢	$47	0x2eb5f5…
10-13 18:58:46	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x829100…
10-13 18:58:09	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	210	17¢	$36	0x019b9d…
10-06 14:16:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	BUY	144	90¢	$130	0x0ae4eb…
09-23 22:47:01	Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x52c58a…
09-17 18:05:54	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	72	28¢	$20	0x0533e9…
09-17 18:05:40	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	105	86¢	$90	0xe126ec…
09-08 19:16:03	Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	Yes	BUY	137	2¢	$3	0x67c086…
09-08 08:50:27	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	136	11¢	$15	0x43e1c9…
09-07 11:43:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x033917…
09-03 21:04:24	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	323	14¢	$46	0xa4d02e…
09-03 20:54:45	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	No	SELL	117	87¢	$102	0x8e72e6…
09-03 16:01:31	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	No	BUY	117	4¢	$5	0xce7660…
08-31 14:02:06	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x774069…
08-29 22:22:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0x54aaa3…
08-24 17:45:55	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x2b4e4f…
08-24 17:39:01	Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x8a5cd5…
08-21 12:17:49	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	84	18¢	$15	0xf8aba3…
08-21 12:16:16	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	Yes	SELL	66	53¢	$35	0x601c98…