Crowded-Wraparound — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

22.5%

Resolved

760

Trades

4,099

lifetime

Volume

$256.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 11-03 22:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 126 days

Categories

Other

45% 14% -$4,851

Politics

36% 25% -$3,647

Crypto

9% 68% -$795

Sports

7% 20% -$2,952

Tech

2% 4% -$1,281

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No		+10	$5	98¢	$10	+$4	07-21 18:13
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes		+10	$5	2¢	$0	-$5	07-21 18:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	24	$26.0K	16,008	16,008	+0	No	-$423	07-13 04:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$16.6K	17,112	17,112	+0	No	-$1,863	07-14 12:39
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	10	$13.9K	8,601	8,601	+0	open	—	07-12 03:59
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	12	$11.4K	7,480	7,480	+0	Yes	-$331	07-11 21:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	52	$10.9K	10,733	10,733	+0	No	-$181	07-02 14:25
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$6.5K	6,545	6,545	+0	No	-$33	06-08 18:36
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	6	$5.5K	4,017	4,017	+0	No	+$38	07-13 19:46
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 corners total 9pt5	2	$4.9K	4,911	4,911	+0	Under	+$98	07-11 18:06
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	13	$4.8K	2,979	2,979	+0	No	-$30	07-12 01:12
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	19	$3.7K	2,410	2,410	+0	No	-$96	06-22 04:03
Will Rossella Fini win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election?	57	$3.7K	4,331	1,249	+3,083	No	-$2,347	06-05 02:33
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	2	$3.5K	2,177	2,177	+0	No	-$44	07-13 14:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	36	$3.4K	3,027	3,027	+0	Yes	-$37	05-31 19:11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	41	$3.2K	3,192	3,192	+0	No	$0	05-29 19:57
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	18	$3.0K	2,223	2,223	+0	No	-$44	06-11 13:50
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	11	$2.2K	2,451	2,451	-0	open	—	06-05 01:21
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	17	$2.1K	1,919	1,919	+0	Spurs	+$154	06-09 00:51
Will Ernesto Bello win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election?	20	$2.1K	1,215	1,215	+0	No	+$266	06-08 18:19
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$2.1K	1,684	1,684	+0	Yes	-$36	07-10 18:58
Spurs vs. Thunder	4	$2.1K	8,955	0	+8,955	Thunder	-$2,052	05-21 01:47
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$2.0K	1,414	1,414	+0	open	—	07-07 12:20
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	4	$2.0K	1,204	1,204	-0	No	-$3	06-04 11:51
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	6	$2.0K	2,470	2,470	+0	Yes	+$38	07-07 04:13
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	2	$2.0K	1,147	1,147	+0	No	-$103	07-06 04:50
will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	10	$2.0K	1,362	1,362	+0	Yes	+$7	07-08 00:24
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	3	$2.0K	1,204	1,204	+0	Yes	-$36	06-11 21:00
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	22	$1.9K	1,440	1,870	-430	Yes	-$924	05-28 21:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-10 22:15 UTC	7	$1.9K	1,049	1,046	+3	Up	+$58	03-10 22:30
Fed rate hike in 2026?	9	$1.9K	1,523	1,523	+0	Yes	-$30	07-14 10:50
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	12	$1.9K	1,056	1,056	+0	No	+$3	06-01 11:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 22:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	36	10¢	$4	0x75455b…
11-03 22:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1ec6eb…
11-03 22:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0xd84f99…
11-03 22:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0xd513c4…
11-03 22:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x8d035a…
11-03 22:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	24	10¢	$2	0x6ee96f…
11-03 22:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	167	10¢	$17	0x6e224f…
11-03 22:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x22cc4b…
11-03 22:28:21	Will Butler reach the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x57d80f…
11-03 22:27:25	Will Dayton reach the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x1380a9…
11-03 21:56:30	will butler reach the 2027 ncaa mens basketball final four	Yes	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x8b9077…
11-03 21:56:27	will dayton reach the 2027 ncaa mens basketball final four	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x0a39dd…
11-03 21:54:52	will butler reach the 2027 ncaa mens basketball final four	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xb24167…
08-08 03:06:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xf5affa…
08-08 02:57:28	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Down	SELL	37	53¢	$20	0x2082d9…
08-08 02:55:19	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	37	52¢	$19	0x2b7da3…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xdeeb6b…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0xc3373a…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xc11295…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	28	10¢	$3	0xbbe2d3…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xb1a7d6…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xa2c95d…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x930154…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x2a8ff8…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x247870…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x23a61f…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x1a072b…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	83	10¢	$8	0x0e20f8…
08-03 11:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x081e90…
08-03 11:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0xfb292e…
08-03 11:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	24	10¢	$2	0xedd583…
08-03 11:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xdb62ed…
08-03 11:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0xd9379b…
08-03 11:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x8a3bfb…
07-24 06:04:51	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	376	64¢	$240	0xc37533…
07-24 05:52:34	will warsh say iran during july press conference 20260720204109054	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x10fede…
07-24 05:52:10	sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	No	SELL	42	21¢	$9	0x8f65b7…
07-24 05:51:31	Will João Campos win the Pernambuco Governor election?	Yes	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0xff3474…
07-24 05:47:42	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	SELL	106	47¢	$50	0x305cdc…
07-24 05:21:34	will avengers secret wars be delayed 20260721153722642	Yes	SELL	13	40¢	$5	0x532b6f…
07-24 05:21:10	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	42	41¢	$17	0x766b7a…
07-24 05:21:00	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	43¢	$18	0x93ae4e…
07-24 05:20:54	Will Alex Palou win the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series?	Yes	SELL	21	28¢	$6	0x1f736f…
07-24 05:20:52	will warsh say iran during july press conference 20260720204109054	No	SELL	32	81¢	$26	0x828f5e…
07-24 05:20:10	Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?	No	SELL	21	38¢	$8	0x253019…
07-24 05:20:09	will the highest score achieved by a moonshot kimi model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 50 or higher 20260723191206822	No	SELL	21	56¢	$12	0x03c314…
07-24 05:20:04	Will João Campos win the Pernambuco Governor election?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x61242e…
07-24 05:19:55	Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?	No	BUY	21	44¢	$9	0x569b38…
07-24 05:19:33	sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	No	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0x4dc6c2…
07-24 05:19:12	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x1b5264…
07-24 05:19:10	will avengers secret wars be delayed 20260721153722642	Yes	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0x278e76…
07-24 05:18:19	will avengers secret wars be delayed 20260721153722642	Yes	BUY	21	80¢	$17	0xc6ea60…
07-24 05:18:18	Will "72 Hours" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x22558e…
07-24 05:18:15	Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 AL Central title?	Yes	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0xeb84df…
07-24 05:18:15	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	No	SELL	53	58¢	$31	0xbd1130…
07-24 05:18:13	will the total us effective tariff rate for q2 be at least 7 20260722202131838	No	SELL	20	47¢	$10	0x2db36d…
07-24 05:18:10	Will "72 Hours" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	SELL	19	52¢	$10	0x9138ca…
07-24 05:18:10	Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?	Yes	SELL	21	18¢	$4	0x5168a8…
07-24 05:18:00	Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?	Yes	BUY	21	66¢	$14	0x7590f1…
07-24 05:17:25	Will "72 Hours" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	21	64¢	$13	0xc1ce93…
07-24 05:16:33	Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 AL Central title?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xa38849…
07-24 05:16:22	will warsh say iran during july press conference 20260720204109054	No	BUY	32	82¢	$26	0xa23112…
07-24 05:15:01	sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	No	SELL	21	22¢	$5	0x41132c…
07-24 05:15:00	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	SELL	53	46¢	$24	0xf6ea41…
07-24 05:14:52	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	No	BUY	53	59¢	$31	0x59eaac…
07-24 05:14:30	sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	No	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0xcc6177…
07-24 05:13:21	will the total us effective tariff rate for q2 be at least 7 20260722202131838	No	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x446083…
07-24 05:13:10	will the total us effective tariff rate for q2 be at least 7 20260722202131838	No	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xa0396c…
07-24 05:12:51	will the highest score achieved by a moonshot kimi model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 50 or higher 20260723191206822	No	BUY	21	78¢	$16	0xe593c8…
07-24 05:11:43	will the next claude opus model be released by july 27 2026	No	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0xcac614…
07-24 05:11:24	Will Alex Palou win the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series?	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x78749a…
07-24 05:00:49	Will Alex Palou win the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series?	Yes	BUY	21	77¢	$16	0xe0df2b…
07-24 05:00:40	Will Alex Palou win the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series?	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xfce4a6…
07-24 05:00:28	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xcd69e4…
07-24 04:59:36	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x8341ec…
07-24 02:01:25	Will Scott Timko win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$0	0x052533…
07-24 02:01:00	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0x83b3d1…
07-24 02:00:55	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0x805179…
07-24 02:00:30	Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xf7cdfa…
07-24 02:00:16	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	SELL	15	77¢	$11	0xe69944…
07-24 01:59:57	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	21	81¢	$17	0xdc9e64…
07-24 01:52:15	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	BUY	15	78¢	$11	0x15a028…
07-24 01:51:42	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0x26bfb2…
07-24 01:50:58	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x920cd0…
07-24 01:50:13	Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	28¢	$7	0x9c0255…
07-24 01:50:09	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x6455ed…
07-24 01:50:07	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	SELL	105	25¢	$26	0x1229fa…
07-24 01:49:48	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be at least 3pt5t yuan 20260723150651778	Yes	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0xe157c7…
07-24 01:49:12	Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	33¢	$8	0x0e18b8…
07-24 01:48:57	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be at least 3pt5t yuan 20260723150651778	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x093b17…
07-24 01:48:54	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	BUY	105	32¢	$34	0x1ed870…
07-24 01:47:27	Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x89796e…
07-24 01:46:22	Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0xebde20…
07-24 01:46:22	Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0xd3a90c…
07-24 01:45:24	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	SELL	105	34¢	$36	0x987716…
07-24 01:45:24	Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x88f01c…
07-24 01:45:15	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	BUY	105	35¢	$37	0x0d551a…
07-24 01:44:54	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xfc50f9…
07-24 01:44:54	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be at least 3pt5t yuan 20260723150651778	Yes	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0xea16d1…
07-24 01:44:54	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	Yes	SELL	51	31¢	$16	0xda889f…