Informal-Pounding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.89K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$105

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-25 13:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

46% 100% +$5

Crypto

43% 100% +$2

Tech

11% 100% +$3

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No		+5	$5	96¢	$5	+$0	10-05 12:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	3	$646	463	183	+280	No	+$0	01-22 05:49
will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	1	$442	443	0	+443	No	+$1	02-04 08:05
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	1	$413	415	0	+415	Yes	+$2	06-01 13:20
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$412	412	0	+412	No	+$0	05-08 10:53
Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	1	$411	412	0	+412	No	+$1	04-05 14:37
will tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	1	$402	402	0	+402	No	+$0	03-11 16:34
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	2	$245	124	124	+0	No	+$0	08-14 03:00
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	07-01 09:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	1	$184	186	0	+186	No	+$2	10-05 11:59
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$166	166	0	+166	No	+$0	09-04 11:54
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	1	$101	101	0	+101	No	+$0	01-22 05:50
will bnb dip to 500 in january	1	$74	74	0	+74	No	+$0	01-20 07:45
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	10-25 13:11
elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 140 164	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	04-05 14:36
will bitcoin dip to 20k in march 2026	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	03-26 11:07
Will BNB dip to $300 in May?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	05-08 10:54
Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	04-16 13:33
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	06-21 07:16
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	07-20 08:50
Will Solana reach $200 in September?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	09-19 13:46
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	10-05 11:59
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-22 09:22
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-08 10:54
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	09-04 11:55
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	06-01 13:22
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-22 09:22
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	04-28 10:59
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	09-04 11:56
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	08-01 12:51
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	10-05 12:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 13:11:15	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xdac5bb…
10-05 12:01:08	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9efa1a…
10-05 11:59:44	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4911eb…
10-05 11:59:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	186	99¢	$184	0x9b77f0…
09-19 13:46:53	Will Solana reach $200 in September?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1244dd…
09-04 11:56:03	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7eab7f…
09-04 11:55:28	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6e552a…
09-04 11:54:48	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	166	100¢	$166	0x5cad02…
08-14 03:00:28	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	124	99¢	$123	0x27ae5a…
08-01 12:51:11	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x40a5c5…
08-01 12:50:12	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	124	99¢	$123	0x11795d…
07-20 08:50:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5dc7cb…
07-01 09:59:49	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xa08338…
06-21 07:16:56	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x8c7610…
06-01 13:22:06	Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xdc493d…
06-01 13:20:57	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	415	99¢	$413	0x7411fa…
05-22 09:22:59	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5c1d6b…
05-22 09:22:05	Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x11096d…
05-08 10:54:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x505eaa…
05-08 10:54:17	Will BNB dip to $300 in May?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xbcb162…
05-08 10:53:19	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	412	100¢	$412	0xbc5a21…
04-28 10:59:08	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa4f659…
04-16 13:33:02	Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa2d141…
04-05 14:37:15	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	412	100¢	$411	0x8089f5…
04-05 14:36:27	elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 140 164	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc55c0b…
03-26 11:07:49	will bitcoin dip to 20k in march 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xee4d3f…
03-11 16:34:59	will tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	402	100¢	$402	0x88568c…
02-04 08:07:20	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x2c65c4…
02-04 08:06:34	russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x7cd377…
02-04 08:05:36	will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	No	BUY	443	100¢	$442	0xa13984…
01-22 05:50:10	will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x173ac1…
01-22 05:49:28	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	No	SELL	93	100¢	$93	0x343cea…
01-20 07:45:02	will bnb dip to 500 in january	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0xcf279e…
01-20 07:44:10	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0xd5c8ad…
01-06 14:58:09	will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xd8e024…
01-06 14:57:13	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	No	BUY	463	100¢	$463	0xc3944b…
01-06 14:56:15	will tiktok be banned by march 31	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xc988ee…