Realized P&L (30d)
-$3
Unrealized P&L
-$12
Hit rate
64.5%
Resolved (30d)
31
Trades (30d)
68
414 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$330
$1.70K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$126
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-17
last 11-09 16:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 88 days
Categories
Other
56% 59% +$37
Sports
25% 65% +$55
Politics
11% 50% -$18
Tech
7% 67% +$2
Crypto
1% 50% +$1
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? Yes +16 $10 76¢ $12 +$2 10-24 13:34
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +13 $10 92¢ $12 +$2 10-26 20:08
US bank failure by December 31, 2026? Yes +12 $5 71¢ $8 +$3 10-12 14:52
Will Drake headline Coachella 2027? No +9 $5 76¢ $7 +$2 10-24 16:09
Will US births in 2026 be between 3.53 million and 3.56 million? Yes +18 $5 38¢ $7 +$2 11-01 09:52
1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027? Yes +6 $3 94¢ $6 +$3 10-23 18:06
Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027? Yes +8 $5 66¢ $5 +$0 10-24 16:09
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30? Yes +8 $5 64¢ $5 +$0 11-02 19:32
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +10 $5 49¢ $5 $0 09-08 15:53
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes +10 $5 46¢ $5 $0 10-04 18:46
Will Tame Impala headline Coachella 2027? Yes +7 $5 62¢ $5 $0 10-24 16:09
Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? Yes +40 $5 11¢ $5 $0 10-03 17:00
Will Sexyy Red be featured on GTA VI: The Album? No +7 $5 66¢ $4 -$1 10-24 16:23
Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? Yes +13 $5 33¢ $4 -$1 10-23 17:41
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31? Yes +20 $5 20¢ $4 -$1 10-30 21:41
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? Yes +69 $5 5¢ $4 -$1 09-03 16:06
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? Yes +43 $3 7¢ $3 +$0 11-09 16:52
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? Yes +9 $5 31¢ $3 -$2 09-08 21:22
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by November 30? No +17 $3 15¢ $3 $0 11-02 19:29
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes +25 $5 10¢ $2 -$3 10-21 13:47
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? Yes +16 $5 14¢ $2 -$3 11-02 14:26
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? Yes +43 $3 5¢ $2 -$1 08-09 21:36
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk by November 30? No +8 $3 27¢ $2 -$1 11-02 19:30
Will Spider-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday? No +6 $3 35¢ $2 -$1 09-02 10:50
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? No +5 $3 38¢ $2 -$1 09-03 16:08
Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026? No +14 $5 14¢ $2 -$3 10-23 17:37
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +43 $3 3¢ $1 -$2 08-13 21:25
Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31? Yes +17 $5 7¢ $1 -$4 10-24 13:37
Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15? Yes +14 $1 8¢ $1 +$0 11-02 15:46
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +214 $3 0¢ $1 -$2 10-23 17:20