Old-Fashioned-Clove — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$25

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

72.2%

Resolved

Trades

717

lifetime

Volume

$182.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$254

Open exposure

$136

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 15:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

62% 86% +$25

Politics

31% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	+100	$98	98¢	$98	+$0	07-13 16:09
Will Aleksandr Logunov win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	+20	$19	100¢	$20	+$0	07-13 16:10
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	+19	$18	97¢	$18	+$0	07-13 14:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 560 579	10	$7.7K	4,481	4,481	+0	open	—	01-04 16:02
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	2	$5.2K	2,677	2,677	+0	open	—	01-27 05:38
will the us next strike iran on january 14 2026 et 369	34	$4.7K	2,418	2,359	+59	open	—	01-15 07:16
elon musk of tweets january 12 january 14 40 64	11	$4.6K	2,309	2,344	-35	open	—	01-14 06:40
will silver si hit high 140 by end of january 438 122 492	5	$4.3K	3,011	1,369	+1,642	open	—	01-30 01:53
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	3	$4.1K	2,067	2,067	+0	open	—	02-25 01:32
elon musk of tweets january 10 january 12 65 89	4	$4.0K	2,041	2,041	+0	open	—	01-11 10:45
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 580plus	3	$4.0K	4,246	0	+4,246	open	—	01-01 01:54
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 0 39	34	$3.8K	7,530	7,530	+0	open	—	03-16 07:16
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?	4	$3.4K	3,562	0	+3,562	open	—	01-10 05:40
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	4	$3.3K	1,686	1,686	+0	open	—	02-01 05:21
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 40 64	10	$3.0K	3,096	0	+3,096	open	—	02-01 16:44
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 320 339	5	$2.9K	1,494	1,494	+0	open	—	01-22 08:39
donald trump of truth social posts february 10 february 17 200plus	19	$2.9K	1,456	1,456	+0	open	—	02-17 15:41
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$2.8K	2,751	2,460	+291	open	—	02-28 06:42
will powell say good afternoon during january press conference 696 565	10	$2.7K	2,745	0	+2,745	open	—	01-28 15:35
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	8	$2.7K	1,394	1,394	+0	open	—	03-16 02:57
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 40 64	6	$2.7K	2,926	0	+2,926	open	—	01-27 05:54
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 40 64	2	$2.6K	2,727	0	+2,727	open	—	02-03 01:18
elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 240plus	13	$2.6K	2,692	0	+2,692	open	—	01-17 02:24
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 580plus	15	$2.5K	2,632	0	+2,632	open	—	01-15 09:51
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	8	$2.5K	2,543	0	+2,543	open	—	01-24 02:45
elon musk of tweets january 12 january 14 165 189	2	$2.3K	2,365	0	+2,365	open	—	01-14 06:41
elon musk of tweets march 21 march 23 190 214	3	$2.2K	1,087	1,087	+0	open	—	03-22 16:39
elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 240plus	3	$2.2K	2,186	0	+2,186	open	—	01-10 09:28
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale?	6	$2.2K	1,119	1,119	+0	open	—	01-10 05:39
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 40 64	5	$2.1K	2,177	0	+2,177	open	—	02-22 08:38
elon musk of tweets march 12 march 14 140 164	2	$2.1K	1,065	1,065	+0	open	—	03-14 15:16
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	1	$2.1K	2,122	0	+2,122	open	—	02-22 01:02
elon musk of tweets february 19 february 21 165 189	1	$2.1K	2,114	0	+2,114	open	—	02-21 08:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 15:01:42	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	60	38¢	$23	0xf2de2e…
07-17 08:09:36	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	106	99¢	$105	0x61efec…
07-17 08:09:34	will mojtaba khamenei sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950074	No	SELL	105	99¢	$103	0x0c8119…
07-13 16:10:11	Will Aleksandr Logunov win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0x9bc343…
07-13 16:09:47	Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xa44b6e…
07-13 14:44:47	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x9ca468…
07-07 02:12:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	77	26¢	$20	0x0a43d7…
07-06 01:19:40	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xcf213d…
07-04 15:06:32	over 35m committed to the laso finance public sale 555 417	No	BUY	73	68¢	$50	0x80d3ba…
07-01 08:10:20	Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x63cbc4…
07-01 06:38:35	over 10m committed to the laso finance public sale 755 669	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xdc188e…
07-01 01:23:56	over 10m committed to the laso finance public sale 755 669	No	SELL	69	6¢	$4	0x8c112b…
06-30 01:33:55	over 1m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xa4dfea…
06-30 01:33:53	over 10m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x1ee3ae…
06-25 14:15:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	190	16¢	$30	0xbc26a5…
06-25 03:21:20	will the announcers say history during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646393	No	BUY	49	71¢	$35	0x14e25c…
06-24 07:37:44	will cap launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xbee924…
06-24 07:36:05	Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xfb215d…
06-24 07:26:50	will cap launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x0ecbbc…
06-17 02:45:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	Yes	SELL	259	3¢	$9	0xb3b515…
06-17 01:38:55	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xcb9f7b…
06-16 07:49:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x545be3…
06-16 07:48:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	Yes	BUY	519	2¢	$10	0xd1f1d0…
06-16 07:47:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	105	98¢	$103	0xa5a433…
06-15 08:26:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xa5e6de…
06-01 12:41:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	77¢	$80	0x71d496…
06-01 12:41:58	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0xbd1072…
06-01 12:08:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	80¢	$84	0xf4a72b…
06-01 06:19:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x4366c0…
05-28 03:00:20	Ethereum flipped in 2026?	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x87cf11…
05-28 01:45:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xadb1a3…
05-18 01:10:03	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0xa555ed…
05-13 02:37:02	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	80¢	$39	0x5bdf9a…
05-12 18:04:42	Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0x823e23…
05-12 17:53:59	Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x30c320…
05-12 17:53:40	Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	SELL	29	93¢	$27	0xfcbefc…
05-12 05:37:58	Will Tim Cook attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0x83b46e…
05-11 13:57:08	Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xe47973…
05-11 13:57:00	Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xe57f95…
05-11 13:56:33	Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x4cee87…
05-11 13:56:07	Will any CEO of a publicly-listed US company attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xceba63…
05-11 13:55:55	Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0e3410…
05-11 13:55:46	Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x08004c…
05-11 13:55:25	Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xfed842…
05-11 13:54:10	Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x63ea79…
05-11 13:48:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0x2571a1…
05-11 05:37:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	105	96¢	$100	0x972db5…
05-11 01:10:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x9600f5…
05-09 07:46:20	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xf85982…
05-08 08:28:45	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	120	98¢	$117	0x96bc8d…
05-07 13:56:25	Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	80¢	$86	0xdd2130…
04-30 03:44:16	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xac6752…
04-30 00:59:58	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x110213…
04-29 05:39:52	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	120	79¢	$95	0x2d051d…
04-29 05:37:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$100	0xa84591…
04-28 08:02:22	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	67	97¢	$65	0xea1c1c…
04-28 07:31:38	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xad9cf7…
04-28 07:07:34	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xa92cb0…
04-28 05:40:16	Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x80be97…
04-28 01:55:16	Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xa5ebba…
04-27 03:24:12	Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	Yes	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x6bb19d…
04-27 03:23:54	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xc22300…
04-26 02:50:58	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	37	98¢	$36	0x19f37b…
04-24 13:33:14	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 140 159	No	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x332a15…
04-24 03:36:14	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	96¢	$70	0x0eec40…
04-24 03:35:54	cz binance of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 60 79	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x4f1c84…
04-24 03:32:38	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x78d838…
04-24 02:59:44	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	SELL	122	4¢	$5	0xaa1f1f…
04-24 02:56:30	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	Yes	BUY	31	93¢	$29	0xdd01ab…
04-24 02:13:22	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x68cd18…
04-24 02:07:28	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x30e48d…
04-24 01:34:20	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x5f455f…
04-24 01:33:14	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	BUY	68	80¢	$54	0x344b25…
04-24 01:32:56	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	BUY	51	80¢	$41	0x661844…
04-24 00:57:16	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x0882cd…
04-24 00:11:06	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	SELL	39	97¢	$38	0x20aa8f…
04-23 23:38:02	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x73cd74…
04-23 23:20:34	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x5216b5…
04-23 22:28:12	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xb0b272…
04-23 13:32:42	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x85d073…
04-23 13:32:20	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4dad98…
04-22 06:29:14	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	78	99¢	$78	0xd2fd82…
04-22 05:55:30	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	No	BUY	65	59¢	$39	0xbe05c9…
04-22 02:01:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0xd07cf5…
04-21 07:55:52	ted cruz of tweets april 14 april 21 2026 120 139	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$11	0x95c361…
04-21 07:33:24	ted cruz of tweets april 14 april 21 2026 120 139	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0x37d5bf…
04-21 07:02:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x9e629d…
04-20 08:37:26	Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x591705…
04-20 01:15:42	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	SELL	97	69¢	$67	0x3d96a1…
04-20 01:06:18	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 140 164	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x280161…
04-19 19:41:00	cz binance of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 60 79	No	BUY	70	94¢	$65	0x63d380…
04-19 01:53:58	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 160 179	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xaaf8e7…
04-19 01:29:08	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 140 164	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xa8af35…
04-18 21:11:16	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 140 159	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x1608da…
04-18 19:44:08	ted cruz of tweets april 17 april 24 2026 140 159	No	BUY	95	95¢	$90	0xfc370b…
04-18 12:19:06	khamenei of tweets april 14 april 21 2026 0 4	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xe3be05…
04-18 12:18:42	khamenei of tweets april 14 april 21 2026 0 4	Yes	BUY	92	3¢	$3	0xb1bfaf…
04-18 11:04:30	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x14a51f…
04-18 11:03:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0xce7ac9…
04-18 10:56:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	No	BUY	62	90¢	$56	0x185875…