Old-Fashioned-Clove — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.43K

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

88.7%

Resolved

1,306

Trades

4,517

lifetime

Volume

$372.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$83

Open exposure

$2.17K

16 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 09:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 215 days

Categories

Other

79% 91% -$321

Politics

17% 81% -$3,135

Crypto

3% 64% -$1,024

Tech

0% 100% +$70

Sports

0% 60% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 210 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+838	$788	94¢	$792	+$4	10-24 12:07
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+207	$202	98¢	$203	+$1	10-24 03:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	No	+195	$190	99¢	$193	+$3	10-20 03:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+200	$182	94¢	$187	+$5	10-27 02:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+200	$170	83¢	$166	-$4	10-08 01:30
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+150	$112	88¢	$133	+$20	10-23 01:47
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+150	$111	81¢	$121	+$10	10-19 15:31
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+100	$92	92¢	$92	+$0	10-15 08:38
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+108	$94	64¢	$70	-$24	09-17 06:34
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+112	$74	46¢	$52	-$22	09-30 03:35
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+50	$47	96¢	$48	+$1	09-28 13:35
will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	+45	$39	80¢	$36	-$2	09-26 15:16
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	+35	$33	97¢	$34	+$2	08-06 08:03
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+150	$30	16¢	$23	-$7	10-19 02:40
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	+20	$15	82¢	$16	+$1	10-08 06:25
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+150	$3	1¢	$2	-$1	10-19 15:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 560 579	10	$7.7K	4,481	4,481	+0	No	-$818	01-04 16:02
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	2	$5.2K	2,677	2,677	+0	No	+$131	01-27 05:38
will the us next strike iran on january 14 2026 et 369	34	$4.7K	2,418	2,359	+59	No	+$45	01-15 07:16
elon musk of tweets january 12 january 14 40 64	11	$4.6K	2,309	2,344	-35	No	+$97	01-14 06:40
will silver si hit high 140 by end of january 438 122 492	5	$4.3K	3,011	1,369	+1,642	No	+$51	01-30 01:53
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	3	$4.1K	2,067	2,067	+0	No	+$32	02-25 01:32
elon musk of tweets january 10 january 12 65 89	4	$4.0K	2,041	2,041	+0	No	+$44	01-11 10:45
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 580plus	3	$4.0K	4,246	0	+4,246	No	+$219	01-01 01:54
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 0 39	34	$3.8K	7,530	7,530	+0	No	-$1,057	03-16 07:16
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?	4	$3.4K	3,562	0	+3,562	No	+$126	01-10 05:40
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	4	$3.3K	1,686	1,686	+0	No	+$29	02-01 05:21
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 40 64	10	$3.0K	3,096	0	+3,096	No	+$77	02-01 16:44
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 320 339	5	$2.9K	1,494	1,494	+0	No	+$85	01-22 08:39
donald trump of truth social posts february 10 february 17 200plus	19	$2.9K	1,456	1,456	+0	No	+$15	02-17 15:41
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$2.8K	2,751	2,460	+291	Yes	-$1,976	02-28 06:42
will powell say good afternoon during january press conference 696 565	10	$2.7K	2,745	0	+2,745	Yes	+$39	01-28 15:35
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	8	$2.7K	1,394	1,394	+0	No	+$86	03-16 02:57
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 40 64	6	$2.7K	2,926	0	+2,926	No	+$252	01-27 05:54
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 40 64	2	$2.6K	2,727	0	+2,727	No	+$122	02-03 01:18
elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 240plus	13	$2.6K	2,692	0	+2,692	No	+$96	01-17 02:24
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 580plus	15	$2.5K	2,632	0	+2,632	No	+$123	01-15 09:51
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	8	$2.5K	2,543	0	+2,543	No	+$38	01-24 02:45
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 27?	162	$2.5K	1,278	1,277	+1	No	+$72	08-27 01:21
elon musk of tweets january 12 january 14 165 189	2	$2.3K	2,365	0	+2,365	No	+$24	01-14 06:41
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 27?	36	$2.3K	1,852	880	+972	Yes	-$123	08-27 12:12
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 31?	4	$2.2K	1,113	1,113	+0	Yes	+$10	09-01 02:02
elon musk of tweets march 21 march 23 190 214	3	$2.2K	1,087	1,087	+0	No	+$14	03-22 16:39
elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 240plus	3	$2.2K	2,186	0	+2,186	No	+$29	01-10 09:28
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale?	6	$2.2K	1,119	1,119	+0	No	+$69	01-10 05:39
Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	4	$2.1K	1,086	1,086	+0	No	+$34	10-05 03:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 09:52:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x196807…
10-27 08:43:53	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf005b9…
10-27 08:43:24	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xaad97a…
10-27 08:43:21	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x931486…
10-27 08:43:18	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x987983…
10-27 08:43:14	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x8691fa…
10-27 08:42:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x715bcc…
10-27 08:41:08	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0xc05262…
10-27 08:39:41	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on October 27?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x361561…
10-27 08:39:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0xd66b11…
10-27 08:38:53	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	68	99¢	$67	0x07bd8a…
10-27 08:38:27	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 27?	No	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0x4b9af7…
10-27 07:41:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xf8ad40…
10-27 06:28:42	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x9513ad…
10-27 06:28:42	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	27	71¢	$19	0x5c32d4…
10-27 06:28:08	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x6cad0c…
10-27 05:55:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x0094ed…
10-27 05:38:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x33d9fb…
10-27 05:38:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x0193e6…
10-27 05:35:38	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x0c46ca…
10-27 05:34:33	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 27?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x410509…
10-27 05:34:06	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	52	98¢	$51	0x33cfd7…
10-27 04:49:29	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x55e18c…
10-27 03:41:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xcac1ef…
10-27 03:30:39	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 27?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xa4c11c…
10-27 03:30:33	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 27?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x792742…
10-27 03:27:27	Will Marilyn Crawford win the 2026 Ajax mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xe921d4…
10-27 03:27:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 27?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x711686…
10-27 03:27:17	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 27?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x58da87…
10-27 03:26:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 27?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0xf7e5ad…
10-27 03:23:23	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x851a65…
10-27 03:23:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xb18ff2…
10-27 03:22:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 27?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xb3cd83…
10-27 02:55:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x6ab6e1…
10-27 02:13:15	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x93b540…
10-27 02:13:14	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x318fed…
10-27 01:58:42	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x22d4a5…
10-27 01:58:36	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x11b17c…
10-27 01:58:30	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xfb9451…
10-26 14:38:20	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x190291…
10-26 14:17:24	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x1fe32c…
10-26 13:41:54	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on October 26?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x475a9a…
10-26 13:11:29	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x925ae1…
10-26 12:56:12	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xfe6751…
10-26 09:17:03	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x850ea6…
10-26 09:00:08	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x220075…
10-26 09:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x60f5f7…
10-26 09:00:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xb90db7…
10-26 08:59:57	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x25c490…
10-26 08:59:54	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x5d42ed…
10-26 08:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xfa8dbf…
10-26 08:59:48	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x599b3b…
10-26 08:59:45	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x541ac1…
10-26 08:20:27	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5dbb1c…
10-26 08:20:09	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x7ff81c…
10-26 08:19:44	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 26?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0x345c36…
10-26 08:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x90fdab…
10-26 08:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x85a8ba…
10-26 07:51:23	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$14	0xb42f69…
10-26 07:22:29	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xc706d4…
10-26 07:20:54	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xb04a72…
10-26 07:20:29	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x5263fe…
10-26 07:19:38	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	81	98¢	$79	0x9e50da…
10-26 07:17:36	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C or below on October 26?	No	SELL	168	100¢	$168	0x14e6b5…
10-26 07:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x49255a…
10-26 07:00:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 26?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x415c83…
10-26 06:57:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	16	96¢	$16	0x66d783…
10-26 06:57:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x334feb…
10-26 06:57:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x0b90fc…
10-26 06:53:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0xcc6b9e…
10-26 06:50:42	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x43853d…
10-26 06:50:35	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xac8ae0…
10-26 06:50:23	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0xdccf3f…
10-26 05:58:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x360c24…
10-26 05:58:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2e81fd…
10-26 04:32:08	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	No	SELL	77	11¢	$8	0x437962…
10-26 03:59:09	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x16aa12…
10-26 03:46:45	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xdada13…
10-26 03:21:44	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 26?	No	BUY	26	69¢	$18	0x15a025…
10-26 03:21:29	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on October 26?	No	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x1b33dc…
10-26 03:17:26	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 26?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x4442f4…
10-26 02:55:32	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C or below on October 26?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xe58074…
10-26 02:55:32	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C or below on October 26?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x620701…
10-26 02:55:18	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C or below on October 26?	No	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0xfa3207…
10-26 02:31:27	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C or below on October 26?	No	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0xa0e9df…
10-26 02:31:12	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C or below on October 26?	No	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0xace297…
10-26 02:15:20	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x3f2344…
10-26 01:44:57	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	No	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0xeff7e5…
10-26 01:34:56	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x854d64…
10-25 15:50:35	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on October 25?	Yes	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x1a30bf…
10-25 13:06:53	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0xedd9b6…
10-25 11:16:33	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 25?	Yes	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0xb51aaf…
10-25 08:46:27	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on October 25?	No	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0xc64a8a…
10-25 08:46:23	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on October 25?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xe402d6…
10-25 08:46:05	Will Doug Morneau win the next Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	118	99¢	$117	0x5c1ebb…
10-25 08:45:24	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on October 25?	No	SELL	115	100¢	$115	0x360caf…
10-25 08:45:09	Will Doug Morneau win the next Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0xb4477c…
10-25 06:59:30	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on October 25?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xf96af4…
10-25 06:46:26	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x96e6e1…
10-25 06:40:50	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 25?	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xb7345e…