Stunning-Miscommunication — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.4%

Resolved

619

Trades

1,657

lifetime

Volume

$13.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 05-13 00:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Crypto

61% 61% -$136

Other

22% 40% -$20

Politics

16% 29% +$204

Sports

1% 14% -$38

Tech

0% 67% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-13).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	42	$800	892	892	+0	No	+$149	05-06 01:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 09:20 UTC	6	$312	176	176	+0	Up	-$11	03-10 09:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 04:20 UTC	4	$276	142	142	+0	Up	+$2	03-10 04:25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	12	$255	352	438	-86	No	-$1	05-08 04:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 09:15 UTC	7	$196	103	103	+0	Up	+$3	03-10 09:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 08:55 UTC	2	$194	115	114	+1	Down	+$32	03-10 09:00
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	4	$175	87	271	-184	No	+$75	05-06 01:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 08:50 UTC	2	$160	82	82	+0	Down	+$3	03-10 08:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 08:45 UTC	2	$156	79	79	+0	Down	+$1	03-10 08:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 04:35 UTC	2	$152	77	77	+0	Up	-$1	03-10 04:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 04:30 UTC	2	$152	77	77	+0	Up	+$1	03-10 04:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 13:00 UTC	10	$146	112	81	+31	Down	+$0	03-08 13:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 04:25 UTC	2	$145	77	76	+0	Up	+$6	03-10 04:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 03:55 UTC	2	$143	74	74	+0	Down	+$3	03-10 04:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 04:10 UTC	4	$141	161	161	+0	Up	-$3	03-10 04:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 03:25 UTC	4	$136	97	97	+0	Down	+$5	03-10 03:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 04:15 UTC	2	$135	68	68	+0	Down	+$0	03-10 04:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 22:25 UTC	2	$133	70	70	+0	Up	+$5	03-09 22:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 03:10 UTC	2	$129	66	66	+0	Up	+$2	03-10 03:16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	17	$127	162	162	+0	No	+$23	04-25 19:31
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	20	$126	28,936	28,936	+0	No	+$15	04-30 17:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 00:20 UTC	5	$124	65	63	+2	Up	-$1	03-10 00:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 00:30 UTC	2	$123	63	63	+0	Up	+$3	03-10 00:35
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	4	$121	44	125	-81	No	+$63	05-06 01:18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	11	$115	132	132	+0	No	+$23	04-21 22:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 22:15 UTC	2	$115	65	65	+0	Down	+$14	03-09 22:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:15 UTC	4	$105	60	60	+0	Down	+$2	03-19 22:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 22:10 UTC	2	$101	51	51	+0	Up	+$1	03-09 22:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 09:05 UTC	5	$100	130	61	+68	Down	-$35	03-10 09:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 22:05 UTC	2	$99	51	51	+0	Down	+$1	03-09 22:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 00:55:15	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	39	80¢	$32	0x792e81…
05-12 20:27:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x2e4c94…
05-12 11:27:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xd1474c…
05-12 11:17:42	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	79	5¢	$4	0xbf984a…
05-08 05:02:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x38278c…
05-08 04:24:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x9fddbf…
05-08 04:23:20	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	217	13¢	$28	0xbeb70f…
05-08 04:23:18	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	85	26¢	$22	0xe7cf89…
05-08 04:15:14	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	63	14¢	$9	0xa7523e…
05-08 04:14:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	27¢	$9	0x6a281b…
05-07 05:31:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	85	28¢	$24	0xfca912…
05-07 05:28:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	121	21¢	$25	0x46ab84…
05-07 05:20:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	27¢	$9	0x2577b4…
05-07 05:16:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	56	7¢	$4	0x0d7eae…
05-07 05:15:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	49	5¢	$2	0xc199b5…
05-07 05:15:56	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	46	4¢	$2	0x8f506f…
05-07 05:14:51	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	37	4¢	$2	0xaa6b5c…
05-06 14:40:26	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	46	4¢	$2	0x5fcfe1…
05-06 14:39:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	37	4¢	$1	0xd25b97…
05-06 14:38:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0xa45eda…
05-06 14:38:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	49	7¢	$3	0xf1acc7…
05-06 14:37:03	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	153	11¢	$17	0xc0654b…
05-06 14:36:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x78527e…
05-06 14:36:30	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	110	23¢	$25	0x4be441…
05-06 01:18:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	44	62¢	$27	0xa0e8fe…
05-06 01:18:56	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	166	29¢	$47	0x3d0434…
05-06 01:18:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	271	46¢	$125	0x53f4a4…
05-06 01:15:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	66¢	$47	0x48a17a…
05-06 01:14:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	279	67¢	$187	0xbcc291…
05-06 01:14:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	68¢	$20	0xf251e4…
05-04 00:10:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	65¢	$14	0xd55906…
05-04 00:02:26	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x7a2145…
05-03 15:59:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xb1ca1a…
05-03 09:02:58	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 3?	Yes	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0x499925…
05-03 09:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 4?	Yes	SELL	51	1¢	$1	0x0bb503…
05-03 09:00:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xf2d86e…
05-03 08:59:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xa192a5…
05-03 08:54:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x97e43d…
05-03 07:38:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x89777c…
05-03 04:32:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	22	32¢	$7	0x58be82…
05-03 04:31:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	12	55¢	$6	0xf89938…
05-03 03:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x4f4860…
05-03 03:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xe44781…
05-03 03:40:22	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 4?	Yes	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0xcc8311…
05-03 03:40:22	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 4?	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xc5197b…
05-03 03:16:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x35c900…
05-03 03:12:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	56¢	$5	0x86d9cf…
05-03 02:18:18	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	44	65¢	$29	0x32adea…
05-03 02:16:56	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	39	56¢	$22	0x95f9f2…
05-03 02:16:26	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	138	32¢	$44	0x8e5f33…
05-03 02:13:34	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	48	19¢	$9	0x7abb7c…
05-01 21:43:02	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xd2dc91…
05-01 21:42:36	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	12	46¢	$5	0x9c6b77…
05-01 21:42:18	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xaaaa03…
05-01 13:48:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?	Up	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x4b358f…
05-01 09:48:18	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0xd4c574…
05-01 09:48:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x128f16…
05-01 09:44:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0xf69622…
05-01 06:17:12	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0x9f5163…
05-01 06:12:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x597ff7…
05-01 06:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0x3458d8…
05-01 06:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0x7097d1…
05-01 01:11:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x901261…
04-30 17:45:42	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0x38e80b…
04-30 17:45:40	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	957	0¢	$1	0x394182…
04-30 17:45:38	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	4,970	0¢	$5	0xfde858…
04-30 17:44:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	58¢	$116	0x20f1b6…
04-30 17:33:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	SELL	29	45¢	$13	0xc10b05…
04-30 00:49:00	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	25	23¢	$6	0x00165a…
04-30 00:48:32	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	12	54¢	$6	0x4b88c6…
04-30 00:48:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	29	48¢	$14	0x1ecb75…
04-30 00:38:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	21	39¢	$8	0xd0b13d…
04-30 00:38:26	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x115a7b…
04-30 00:32:02	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	73	39¢	$29	0x4e002e…
04-30 00:31:02	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	61	81¢	$49	0x1e9e3b…
04-29 06:02:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0x4ee31a…
04-29 06:01:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x577ea8…
04-29 05:22:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xde404f…
04-29 05:17:40	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x7f2538…
04-29 05:17:04	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	9¢	$3	0xf9a49b…
04-29 05:13:44	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	27	26¢	$7	0xc1ea70…
04-28 13:45:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x8d4c81…
04-28 13:45:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	21	29¢	$6	0x4a0871…
04-28 13:45:00	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0x3ea9f0…
04-28 10:30:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xe5f4dc…
04-28 10:30:30	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0x441793…
04-28 10:03:48	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x6c0b74…
04-28 09:58:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xa9a481…
04-28 09:27:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x0f58a5…
04-27 20:33:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xb41ddf…
04-27 20:32:42	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd1e08d…
04-27 20:12:18	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x81b58f…
04-27 20:05:26	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	623	0¢	$2	0x8cefdf…
04-27 20:04:58	QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x4c64a0…
04-27 10:27:50	QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0xb3b3b5…
04-27 10:27:14	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	930	0¢	$2	0x3e0350…
04-27 05:30:14	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	573	0¢	$2	0x2d4648…
04-27 05:29:56	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	21	37¢	$8	0x52ffd5…
04-27 05:21:20	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x76a539…
04-27 05:08:46	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xde2a8d…