Stunning-Miscommunication — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

26.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,603

lifetime

Volume

$12.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 05-12 20:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

64% — —

Other

18% 20% +$2

Politics

17% 0% $-2

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 90 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	42	$800	892	892	+0	open	—	05-06 01:15
btc updown 5m 1773134400	6	$312	176	176	+0	open	—	03-10 09:24
btc updown 5m 1773116400	4	$276	142	142	+0	open	—	03-10 04:25
btc updown 5m 1773134100	7	$196	103	103	+0	open	—	03-10 09:20
btc updown 5m 1773132900	2	$194	115	114	+1	open	—	03-10 09:00
btc updown 5m 1773132600	2	$160	82	82	+0	open	—	03-10 08:55
btc updown 5m 1773132300	2	$156	79	79	+0	open	—	03-10 08:50
btc updown 5m 1773117300	2	$152	77	77	+0	open	—	03-10 04:38
btc updown 5m 1773117000	2	$152	77	77	+0	open	—	03-10 04:35
btc updown 5m 1772974800	10	$146	112	81	+31	open	—	03-08 13:06
btc updown 5m 1773116700	2	$145	77	76	+0	open	—	03-10 04:30
btc updown 5m 1773114900	2	$143	74	74	+0	open	—	03-10 04:00
btc updown 5m 1773115800	4	$141	161	161	+0	open	—	03-10 04:15
btc updown 5m 1773113100	4	$136	97	97	+0	open	—	03-10 03:30
btc updown 5m 1773116100	2	$135	68	68	+0	open	—	03-10 04:20
btc updown 5m 1773095100	2	$133	70	70	+0	open	—	03-09 22:30
btc updown 5m 1773112200	2	$129	66	66	+0	open	—	03-10 03:16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	17	$127	162	162	+0	open	—	04-25 19:31
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	20	$126	28,936	28,936	+0	open	—	04-30 17:45
btc updown 5m 1773102000	5	$124	65	63	+2	open	—	03-10 00:25
btc updown 5m 1773102600	2	$123	63	63	+0	open	—	03-10 00:35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	11	$115	132	132	+0	open	—	04-21 22:21
btc updown 5m 1773094500	2	$115	65	65	+0	open	—	03-09 22:20
btc updown 5m 1773958500	4	$105	60	60	+0	open	—	03-19 22:20
btc updown 5m 1773094200	2	$101	51	51	+0	open	—	03-09 22:15
btc updown 5m 1773133500	5	$100	130	61	+68	open	—	03-10 09:08
btc updown 5m 1773093900	2	$99	51	51	+0	open	—	03-09 22:11
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$97	50	50	+0	No	$-0	05-08 05:02
btc updown 5m 1774186800	4	$92	48	48	+0	open	—	03-22 13:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	10	$91	83	81	+2	open	—	04-24 00:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 20:27:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x2e4c94…
05-12 11:27:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xd1474c…
05-12 11:17:42	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	79	5¢	$4	0xbf984a…
05-08 05:02:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x38278c…
05-08 04:24:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x9fddbf…
05-06 01:15:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	66¢	$47	0x48a17a…
05-06 01:14:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	279	67¢	$187	0xbcc291…
05-06 01:14:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	68¢	$20	0xf251e4…
05-04 00:10:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	65¢	$14	0xd55906…
05-04 00:02:26	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x7a2145…
05-03 15:59:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xb1ca1a…
05-03 08:54:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x97e43d…
05-03 07:38:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x89777c…
05-03 03:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x4f4860…
05-03 03:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xe44781…
05-01 13:48:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?	Up	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x4b358f…
05-01 06:12:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x597ff7…
05-01 06:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0x3458d8…
05-01 06:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0x7097d1…
05-01 01:11:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x901261…
04-30 17:45:42	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0x38e80b…
04-30 17:45:40	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	957	0¢	$1	0x394182…
04-30 17:45:38	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	4,970	0¢	$5	0xfde858…
04-30 17:44:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	58¢	$116	0x20f1b6…
04-30 17:33:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	SELL	29	45¢	$13	0xc10b05…
04-30 00:48:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	29	48¢	$14	0x1ecb75…
04-29 05:17:40	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x7f2538…
04-29 05:17:04	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	9¢	$3	0xf9a49b…
04-28 13:45:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x8d4c81…
04-28 13:45:00	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0x3ea9f0…
04-28 10:30:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xe5f4dc…
04-28 10:30:30	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0x441793…
04-28 10:03:48	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x6c0b74…
04-28 09:58:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xa9a481…
04-28 09:27:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x0f58a5…
04-27 20:33:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xb41ddf…
04-27 20:32:42	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd1e08d…
04-27 20:12:18	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x81b58f…
04-27 20:05:26	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	623	0¢	$2	0x8cefdf…
04-27 20:04:58	QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x4c64a0…
04-27 10:27:50	QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0xb3b3b5…
04-27 10:27:14	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	930	0¢	$2	0x3e0350…
04-27 05:30:14	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	573	0¢	$2	0x2d4648…
04-27 05:29:56	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	21	37¢	$8	0x52ffd5…
04-27 05:21:20	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x76a539…
04-27 05:08:46	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xde2a8d…
04-27 05:07:22	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0xf28b90…
04-27 05:06:12	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	22	37¢	$8	0xb93a11…
04-27 04:59:58	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	800	0¢	$2	0x1914b2…
04-27 04:49:34	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x0986f8…
04-27 04:47:56	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0x076b14…
04-27 04:47:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0xafe5be…
04-27 04:47:50	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x547568…
04-27 04:47:50	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x1fbb0e…
04-27 04:33:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xc129fc…
04-27 04:31:24	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	23,929	0¢	$48	0x667f5c…
04-27 02:52:06	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xa12dc3…
04-27 02:46:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xb9dacb…
04-27 00:29:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7df533…
04-27 00:28:48	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x08e917…
04-27 00:28:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x6b8db2…
04-27 00:23:28	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7fdde4…
04-26 13:17:06	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5,094	0¢	$5	0xd626ae…
04-26 10:40:46	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	3,310	0¢	$3	0xf99eb7…
04-26 10:09:26	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	3,040	0¢	$3	0x338a22…
04-26 10:01:08	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	5,975	0¢	$12	0x3aaa5e…
04-26 07:49:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xe1062d…
04-26 07:46:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0xe8ac14…
04-26 01:27:54	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	SELL	19	42¢	$8	0x39835a…
04-25 22:43:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0x997de7…
04-25 22:43:06	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb02e40…
04-25 22:42:50	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xf65034…
04-25 22:36:10	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x11f755…
04-25 19:31:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	82¢	$11	0x9c3a18…
04-25 12:40:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0x4cbe77…
04-25 08:52:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xf6c59e…
04-25 08:52:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x70a14c…
04-25 08:51:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	32¢	$13	0x10f5c8…
04-25 08:51:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	No	SELL	36	31¢	$11	0xf3a71d…
04-25 08:51:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	17	36¢	$6	0xb6cc83…
04-25 08:38:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x249396…
04-25 08:37:46	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	28	34¢	$9	0x0b8f97…
04-25 07:10:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xb348f4…
04-25 07:08:42	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,510	0¢	$2	0x63aba5…
04-25 07:05:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x8c3d18…
04-25 06:41:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xf9e641…
04-25 06:41:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe370cc…
04-25 06:41:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xadb387…
04-25 06:41:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xc3a661…
04-25 06:41:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x6e28e1…
04-25 04:02:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xad9eab…
04-25 04:02:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x6fc932…
04-25 04:02:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0x16ee7e…
04-25 04:02:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x3e4d32…
04-25 04:01:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x77494f…
04-25 04:01:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xa299c8…
04-25 04:00:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	No	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x1c3f12…
04-25 01:55:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$8	0xe72f26…
04-25 01:22:30	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	2,520	0¢	$3	0xdeba35…
04-25 01:08:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x67fcb5…