Sad-Catalysis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.06K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.5%

Resolved

Trades

2,212

lifetime

Volume

$552.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$250

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-11 17:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

53% 67% $-1,021

Politics

38% 100% +$6,079

Crypto

6% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 163 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	30	$30.0K	20,985	14,553	+6,432	open	—	05-29 21:26
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	7	$27.5K	27,600	0	+27,600	open	—	04-30 20:50
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	18	$25.3K	25,620	0	+25,620	open	—	01-06 23:05
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	23	$24.4K	16,641	9,707	+6,933	open	—	05-19 00:36
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	33	$17.4K	19,139	3,166	+15,973	open	—	04-23 22:54
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	39	$16.3K	17,074	289	+16,785	open	—	05-15 07:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	27	$15.8K	3,970	15,303	-11,332	open	—	05-26 02:35
will silver si hit high 140 by end of january 438 122 492	25	$14.7K	15,000	0	+15,000	open	—	01-27 22:19
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	28	$14.7K	22,500	0	+22,500	open	—	04-07 10:04
will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255	117	$11.7K	54,841	0	+54,841	open	—	01-24 13:58
us x venezuela military engagement by january 15 2026 392	2	$11.7K	11,732	0	+11,732	open	—	01-03 07:56
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	13	$11.6K	11,921	0	+11,921	open	—	06-29 13:01
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	59	$11.6K	37,252	0	+37,252	open	—	01-13 06:59
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 14 2026 20260612000748609	3	$10.4K	10,415	0	+10,415	open	—	06-15 01:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	28	$10.2K	4,600	10,528	-5,928	open	—	05-28 03:54
will silver si hit high 130 by end of january 314 277 552 989	19	$9.3K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	01-27 20:09
will iran strike the united kingdom by march 31	20	$8.7K	4,389	4,389	+0	open	—	04-04 04:43
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	70	$8.7K	28,644	0	+28,644	open	—	01-06 20:24
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$8.4K	10,073	0	+10,073	open	—	01-03 07:55
us forces in venezuela by march 31 2026	9	$8.0K	9,999	0	+9,999	open	—	01-03 08:20
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	6	$7.8K	8,000	0	+8,000	open	—	03-01 18:24
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	37	$7.7K	9,000	0	+9,000	open	—	03-01 13:31
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	4	$7.0K	7,500	0	+7,500	open	—	03-21 21:18
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	43	$7.0K	7,448	0	+7,448	open	—	03-25 10:48
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	8	$6.7K	6,842	0	+6,842	open	—	06-16 05:02
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	33	$6.5K	5,644	2,684	+2,960	open	—	05-22 21:11
will iran strike cyprus in march	13	$6.1K	3,113	3,113	+0	open	—	04-04 06:00
si hit 70 low jan 2026 929 537 842	5	$5.9K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	01-28 10:01
si hit 150 high jan 2026	4	$5.5K	5,536	0	+5,536	open	—	01-27 20:03
qatarenergy resumes lng production by march 14	29	$5.1K	5,800	500	+5,300	open	—	03-07 15:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 17:34:09	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	62¢	$8	0x7eadb3…
08-11 13:02:21	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x762900…
08-09 07:21:04	will carlos alcaraz play in the uptspt open 20260805193315485	No	BUY	429	45¢	$193	0x670c41…
08-08 00:35:34	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by september 30 20260806194218452	Yes	BUY	1,500	56¢	$840	0xda63f3…
08-08 00:35:25	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	2,506	50¢	$1,253	0x4f4267…
08-08 00:31:30	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3f6a96…
08-08 00:31:28	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0xa92dfe…
08-07 20:18:19	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	137	50¢	$69	0xd5f8f3…
08-07 20:17:10	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0xe8e461…
08-07 20:17:10	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x63ecd2…
08-07 20:17:09	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	192	50¢	$96	0x6bac3d…
08-07 20:17:07	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	33	50¢	$17	0x762a22…
08-07 18:21:27	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x9d1555…
08-07 18:20:16	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	194	26¢	$50	0x49b321…
08-07 18:14:43	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0x39d3ff…
08-07 17:59:36	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	1,567	15¢	$235	0x6efa60…
08-07 17:40:09	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x66bf25…
08-07 17:31:28	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	159	16¢	$26	0xce6c44…
08-07 17:25:34	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	469	16¢	$76	0x5d9b73…
08-07 17:25:13	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	37	16¢	$6	0x15bb01…
08-07 17:25:12	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	97	16¢	$16	0x2889e1…
08-07 17:21:45	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	2,293	26¢	$596	0x76d888…
08-07 17:20:22	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	16¢	$161	0x9db3b5…
08-07 17:18:09	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x674a3d…
08-07 17:17:42	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	289	26¢	$75	0x624265…
08-07 17:17:42	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	370	26¢	$96	0x493176…
08-07 17:17:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	852	27¢	$230	0xc6d1b0…
08-07 17:08:46	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$56	0xca9c45…
08-07 17:04:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x8221cd…
08-07 17:03:13	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	328	16¢	$54	0xe64635…
08-07 16:56:30	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	58	16¢	$10	0xb751a0…
08-07 16:46:45	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$31	0x2a3bbe…
08-07 16:44:04	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	147	27¢	$40	0x600092…
08-07 16:37:25	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	1,001	11¢	$108	0xe2fb35…
08-07 16:36:27	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	Yes	BUY	900	89¢	$801	0x35d7c0…
08-07 16:35:54	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x31b3f7…
08-07 16:35:46	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	496	11¢	$54	0xc963d9…
08-07 16:34:40	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	BUY	654	53¢	$347	0x6e117c…
08-07 16:34:30	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x7f32d8…
08-07 16:34:03	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	BUY	52	55¢	$29	0x7e1e17…
08-07 16:34:01	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	4,472	17¢	$774	0xe70d65…
08-07 16:32:37	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	BUY	2,170	55¢	$1,194	0x46de85…
08-07 16:31:15	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	494	11¢	$53	0x41d5c5…
08-07 16:31:13	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,800	67¢	$1,876	0x03b5c5…
08-07 16:31:03	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	BUY	1,599	73¢	$1,167	0x896529…
08-07 16:18:28	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0x1f2002…
08-07 16:17:13	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xdfddd1…
08-07 16:05:43	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xbd3f1a…
08-07 15:37:00	will carlos alcaraz play in the uptspt open 20260805193315485	No	BUY	71	45¢	$32	0xa574de…
08-07 15:17:37	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3dbfec…
08-07 15:15:03	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x088c17…
08-07 15:14:30	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	57	50¢	$29	0x06ff41…
08-07 15:14:09	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	901	50¢	$451	0xb2a3a0…
08-07 13:36:49	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,877	70¢	$1,314	0xa1f3b4…
08-07 12:50:27	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	Yes	BUY	205	89¢	$183	0x032802…
08-07 10:51:13	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	70¢	$700	0xef96aa…
08-07 10:25:45	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0xff1828…
08-07 09:17:24	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0x88f4e8…
08-07 09:01:19	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x7fa6ab…
08-07 08:59:48	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x0f3b1d…
08-07 08:55:48	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x831436…
08-07 08:54:49	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x553b47…
08-07 08:53:36	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x98e9f6…
08-07 08:51:42	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xaf3309…
08-07 08:47:57	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x911795…
08-07 08:43:27	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x87c96f…
08-07 08:43:16	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x8ad702…
08-07 08:42:12	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	BUY	933	72¢	$674	0xea196e…
08-07 08:41:09	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	Yes	BUY	747	87¢	$649	0xd37ced…
08-07 08:40:33	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	Yes	BUY	585	27¢	$161	0xf9c1d8…
08-07 08:39:37	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	236	70¢	$165	0xde8213…
08-07 07:13:07	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0x785b94…
08-07 05:30:22	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	414	15¢	$62	0xa211ba…
08-07 05:27:34	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	356	22¢	$78	0x664fc0…
08-06 23:49:48	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	Yes	BUY	444	35¢	$155	0x0c984b…
08-06 23:32:30	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	43	22¢	$9	0x371e33…
08-06 22:45:18	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	Yes	BUY	492	36¢	$177	0x36f26b…
08-06 22:31:09	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x539656…
08-06 20:56:59	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	795	60¢	$477	0x94e054…
08-06 20:56:08	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	300	26¢	$78	0x068184…
08-06 20:54:47	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	2,712	22¢	$591	0x7451ec…
08-06 20:54:26	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	256	29¢	$74	0xb09821…
08-06 20:51:24	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x1b6cf5…
07-28 18:05:50	will trump say ukraine during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556634	Yes	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0xa42858…
07-28 16:07:23	will trump say ukraine during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556634	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x973838…
07-28 15:46:05	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	401	62¢	$249	0xdbc81b…
07-28 15:38:28	will trump say patriot during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556643	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x4f0031…
07-17 00:24:10	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	99	21¢	$21	0xd0977f…
07-17 00:24:02	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	21¢	$0	0x8c1c54…
07-17 00:24:01	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	21¢	$63	0xe9b136…
07-17 00:23:56	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	21¢	$0	0xdbccd0…
07-17 00:23:56	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	21¢	$63	0x951646…
07-17 00:23:47	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	21¢	$0	0xe8f19b…
07-17 00:21:55	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	189	23¢	$44	0x32d80c…
07-17 00:21:49	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	23¢	$0	0xc23e54…
07-17 00:21:47	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	23¢	$69	0x5be323…
07-16 09:21:16	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x4e1125…
07-12 16:14:43	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x660131…
07-12 16:14:43	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x199304…
07-12 14:14:29	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xdd9903…