Shameless-Caper — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$828

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

2,708

Trades

5,580

lifetime

Volume

$29.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 07-18 13:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 60% -$818

Politics

4% 53% -$18

Other

4% 70% -$7

Tech

1% 75% +$15

Sports

0% — —

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-18).

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	26	$435	653	561	+92	Up	-$8	04-26 22:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	25	$396	815	461	+354	Down	+$12	04-26 21:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	29	$374	346	330	+16	Up	+$6	04-26 23:13
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	6	$364	211	211	+0	open	—	07-18 13:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$304	200	200	+0	Yes	-$16	06-03 14:43
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$298	207	207	+0	No	+$58	05-28 14:42
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	9	$164	551	551	+0	open	—	07-18 13:04
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$162	100	100	+0	Yes	-$2	06-18 15:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	23	$150	267	226	+41	Up	-$1	04-26 22:57
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?	3	$142	80	80	+0	open	—	05-31 11:25
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	5	$141	476	476	+0	open	—	06-24 05:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	19	$122	963	200	+763	Up	-$2	04-26 23:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	24	$122	2,508	27	+2,480	Up	-$66	04-27 00:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	19	$118	144	60	+84	Down	+$10	04-26 16:41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	6	$117	66	66	+0	Yes	+$7	07-18 13:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	11	$106	185	142	+43	Down	+$4	04-27 01:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	26	$105	136	129	+6	Down	+$24	04-26 23:29
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	8	$104	85	85	+0	open	—	07-18 13:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	17	$101	214	194	+19	Up	+$9	04-26 23:55
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	10	$98	111	0	+111	Yes	+$13	07-06 10:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	10	$96	172	0	+172	Down	-$9	04-26 16:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	12	$94	149	122	+27	Down	+$7	04-27 00:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	8	$90	134	0	+134	Up	-$16	04-26 17:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	25	$90	120	115	+5	Down	+$11	04-26 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	18	$88	249	31	+218	Up	-$47	04-27 00:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	16	$86	554	49	+505	Down	-$39	04-26 22:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	11	$85	167	0	+167	Up	+$2	04-26 16:27
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3?	1	$85	100	0	+100	Up	+$15	06-03 15:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	20	$83	150	0	+150	Up	-$8	04-26 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	12	$81	114	70	+44	Up	-$10	04-27 03:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 13:04:18	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	150	88¢	$132	0x3d7f19…
07-18 13:04:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	64	95¢	$61	0xc4b618…
07-18 13:04:10	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	81	54¢	$44	0x86b4ab…
07-18 13:04:06	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0x9529ae…
07-18 13:04:00	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xcad75b…
07-18 13:03:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x4e8204…
07-18 13:03:49	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	15	51¢	$8	0xfa851d…
07-18 13:03:43	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x58768e…
07-18 13:03:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x5240a6…
07-16 11:07:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x09bae2…
07-15 14:18:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x7038a4…
07-15 14:18:19	scotus grants trump birthright citizenship rehearing by december 31 20260710222928774	No	SELL	40	47¢	$19	0x3eaf0f…
07-14 10:31:25	scotus grants trump birthright citizenship rehearing by december 31 20260710222928774	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x4598bc…
07-14 05:35:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x04be8d…
07-13 09:38:32	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x00db52…
07-12 12:25:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0xf8bb40…
07-12 12:25:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x7b22c2…
07-12 12:25:25	atp dietric monteir 2026 07 12	Thiago Monteiro	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x1c4a70…
07-12 12:25:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe8422b…
07-12 12:24:46	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x1e7c21…
07-11 14:40:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x224dcc…
07-10 11:51:10	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x34265d…
07-10 03:36:02	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xefd412…
07-08 18:46:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x0bdc7a…
07-07 05:02:07	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0xbb1af9…
07-06 11:13:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x5cbd68…
07-06 11:06:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x8a54d6…
07-06 11:00:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x4945ec…
07-06 10:57:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 10:55 UTC	Up	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0x17c124…
07-06 10:56:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 10:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xd087f5…
07-06 10:54:43	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x13c437…
07-05 05:05:59	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	6	81¢	$4	0x462e0f…
07-04 06:05:05	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x172fed…
07-04 06:04:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xdef31a…
07-01 14:35:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xa60ae5…
07-01 14:32:22	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-01 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x795fa2…
06-30 04:02:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x3bf5e0…
06-29 16:57:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x4e9a80…
06-29 08:26:50	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x5171e3…
06-29 08:19:16	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	88¢	$14	0x01f049…
06-29 02:14:19	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0xdb4bbf…
06-29 02:07:35	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	88¢	$19	0x92c29c…
06-29 02:06:34	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	88¢	$31	0x48ea5c…
06-28 15:20:16	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0xbdbb9a…
06-28 15:17:25	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xa6d3b7…
06-28 15:00:19	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$0	0x87ded7…
06-28 14:33:56	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x52304d…
06-28 14:30:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x86a742…
06-25 11:24:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 11:20 UTC	Down	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x117785…
06-25 11:20:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 11:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x23b77b…
06-25 06:10:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 06:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x949905…
06-25 06:10:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 06:10 UTC	Down	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x5861fc…
06-25 06:06:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 06:05 UTC	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x320758…
06-25 06:04:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 06:00 UTC	Down	SELL	9	29¢	$3	0x26aaeb…
06-25 06:01:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x3f7b9f…
06-24 20:01:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x52d939…
06-24 20:00:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xdbb0ed…
06-24 19:57:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x1e37ee…
06-24 19:54:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:50 UTC	Up	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xac685f…
06-24 19:48:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x78da62…
06-24 19:45:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x8a7aea…
06-24 19:41:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:40 UTC	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xcf829b…
06-24 19:40:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x1d1730…
06-24 19:38:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x00037b…
06-24 19:37:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x669b29…
06-24 19:31:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x5e929b…
06-24 19:25:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xb9b06a…
06-24 19:24:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xe4ad6e…
06-24 19:21:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xf1a147…
06-24 19:16:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x91d254…
06-24 19:10:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xc96238…
06-24 19:07:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xb65ffc…
06-24 19:01:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xa89ee6…
06-24 18:59:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x05bf89…
06-24 18:52:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x26efb3…
06-24 18:48:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x9eba62…
06-24 18:47:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x060163…
06-24 18:40:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xd68897…
06-24 18:36:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xece9d6…
06-24 18:28:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:25 UTC	Down	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xf065c5…
06-24 18:27:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xf92579…
06-24 18:21:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xf7ef3f…
06-24 18:17:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xaeee03…
06-24 18:11:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xa17286…
06-24 18:06:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x5b3c44…
06-24 18:02:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x6f4058…
06-24 18:00:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x2f0e73…
06-24 17:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x1424e6…
06-24 17:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x79a008…
06-24 17:52:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:50 UTC	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xb4a26d…
06-24 17:46:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0xb98d3c…
06-24 17:42:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:40 UTC	Down	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x837ccf…
06-24 17:35:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x3f7b1f…
06-24 17:34:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x06c1a9…
06-24 17:31:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x53dbf3…
06-24 17:26:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x241743…
06-24 17:20:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x26ab8d…
06-24 17:16:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xb3cb5d…
06-24 17:11:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xd78a11…
06-24 17:06:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x5d37f3…