Unaware-Circadian — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$94

Unrealized P&L

-$38

Hit rate

43.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$157

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 10-05 15:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Other

55% 88% +$47

Sports

25% 14% -$151

Tech

8% 50% +$8

Politics

6% 25% +$19

Crypto

5% 47% -$17

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+77	$40	63¢	$49	+$9	09-28 16:02
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+36	$30	97¢	$35	+$5	09-29 16:31
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	No	+33	$25	93¢	$31	+$6	09-05 18:40
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+35	$25	79¢	$28	+$3	09-28 16:03
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+128	$75	11¢	$15	-$60	09-14 17:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$848	4,906	4,906	+0	open	—	05-14 06:47
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	4	$571	412	412	+0	Yes	-$59	05-18 21:04
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	2	$396	385	385	+0	cancelled	-$4	05-20 07:33
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$109	60	60	+0	Yes	+$9	05-26 16:23
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$100	249	0	+249	No	-$100	07-18 20:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	3	$87	47	47	+0	No	+$7	08-31 20:19
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 5.5	2	$86	46	46	+0	Over	+$6	05-24 20:20
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	3	$75	128	0	+128	open	—	09-14 17:03
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: FC Barcelona O/U 2.5	2	$74	44	44	+0	Over	+$14	08-31 21:47
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$69	40	40	+0	Yes	+$9	10-05 15:16
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	2	$65	60	60	+0	open	—	05-27 20:05
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$60	99	0	+99	Yes	+$39	09-05 18:36
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	2	$59	33	33	+0	open	—	05-27 20:05
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	2	$52	33	33	+0	open	—	05-27 20:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	4	$43	90	90	+0	Down	+$3	05-17 20:23
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-31?	1	$40	50	0	+50	Yes	+$10	08-31 19:46
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	2	$40	56	0	+56	open	—	10-05 15:16
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$40	77	0	+77	open	—	09-28 16:02
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$40	116	116	+0	Yes	$0	05-27 20:05
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24?	2	$36	26	26	+0	No	+$6	05-24 20:15
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score	2	$30	18	18	+0	Yes	+$6	05-23 21:56
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	1	$30	36	0	+36	open	—	09-29 16:31
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	2	$30	20	20	+0	Yes	$0	05-27 20:05
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$30	26	26	+0	Yes	$0	05-27 20:05
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	2	$29	48	48	+0	No	-$1	05-24 20:26
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$25	35	0	+35	open	—	09-28 16:03
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	1	$25	33	0	+33	open	—	09-05 18:40
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	2	$20	11	11	+0	Yes	+$0	05-27 20:05
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	1	$20	62	0	+62	Yes	-$20	07-22 14:16
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$20	11	11	+0	No	$0	05-27 20:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 15:16:44	Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	No	BUY	49	71¢	$35	0xcd887a…
10-05 15:16:29	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	40	96¢	$39	0x7bd2d7…
10-05 15:16:16	Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x434b79…
09-29 16:31:39	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0xf28ac5…
09-28 16:03:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x7ac21e…
09-28 16:02:47	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	77	52¢	$40	0x78a7d1…
09-14 17:03:01	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x5432e9…
09-05 18:40:42	Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	8¢	$4	0x0c8578…
09-05 18:40:03	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	No	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x576de1…
09-05 18:36:40	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xa3400a…
09-05 18:36:22	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0x1a8ef3…
09-02 20:21:58	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0xb473d3…
09-01 11:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xccedf2…
09-01 11:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x982dd0…
08-31 21:48:45	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xaaf5b3…
08-31 21:47:39	FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: FC Barcelona O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xda320c…
08-31 21:46:55	Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x3097c8…
08-31 20:19:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0xcf5233…
08-31 19:47:45	FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: FC Barcelona O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0xc3e7e6…
08-31 19:46:55	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-31?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x9cd44b…
08-04 18:13:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x2289cc…
08-03 14:56:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 14:55 UTC	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x34656d…
07-22 14:16:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x86713c…
07-20 21:46:16	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0xea26b9…
07-20 21:45:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0xd10999…
07-18 20:34:58	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	249	40¢	$100	0xd127b4…
05-27 20:05:28	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0xb67e45…
05-27 20:05:25	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	23¢	$7	0xb97931…
05-27 20:05:16	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	116	17¢	$20	0x64cc67…
05-27 20:05:13	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	26	57¢	$15	0xa65c23…
05-27 20:05:11	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xa7c9d9…
05-27 20:05:06	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	Anthropic	SELL	33	81¢	$27	0x144c87…
05-27 20:05:04	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	SELL	33	88¢	$29	0xbdc7db…
05-27 20:05:00	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	60	59¢	$35	0xb381eb…
05-27 20:04:45	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x6918d7…
05-27 20:04:38	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	333	1¢	$5	0x6cb4d3…
05-27 20:04:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	24	32¢	$8	0xa84075…
05-27 15:10:27	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	25¢	$8	0x9a2ff5…
05-26 16:23:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	98¢	$59	0xfdf627…
05-26 16:20:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x558648…
05-26 16:20:13	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	34¢	$8	0x1b8626…
05-25 07:44:41	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	Anthropic	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x522fb0…
05-24 20:26:47	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	No	SELL	48	29¢	$14	0x8cd21b…
05-24 20:20:43	Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	46	99¢	$46	0x9dd814…
05-24 20:15:44	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	SELL	26	80¢	$21	0xdce328…
05-24 20:10:52	Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0xb0e233…
05-24 20:03:36	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x09103e…
05-23 21:56:56	Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x0a4e79…
05-23 14:52:10	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x556f23…
05-23 14:50:01	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xe971d3…
05-23 10:29:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0x382ee5…
05-23 10:04:02	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	No	BUY	48	31¢	$15	0x4291f4…
05-23 09:43:46	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	116	17¢	$20	0xd46aaf…
05-23 09:05:19	Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0x5c86b1…
05-23 08:57:18	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x34cb72…
05-22 16:36:13	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$5	0x20946c…
05-22 16:35:10	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xff9c6b…
05-20 07:37:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xa9516a…
05-20 07:33:48	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	SELL	385	51¢	$196	0x9d804c…
05-20 07:27:36	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	BUY	385	52¢	$200	0xeed6f7…
05-18 21:04:56	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	SELL	75	4¢	$3	0xc41355…
05-18 20:55:08	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0xa6f3f0…
05-18 20:53:58	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	337	75¢	$253	0x979416…
05-18 20:36:57	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	337	89¢	$300	0x9eb027…
05-17 20:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	49	20¢	$10	0xc26e74…
05-17 20:22:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	49	20¢	$10	0x5d6d49…
05-17 20:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	40	32¢	$13	0xde3def…
05-17 20:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x51395a…
05-17 20:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0x287b43…
05-17 20:17:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x1f5bd9…
05-14 06:47:37	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,906	7¢	$348	0x046474…
05-13 16:39:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xe5ff0f…
05-08 12:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x4c3df5…
05-08 12:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0x469233…
05-08 12:16:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x70c089…
05-08 11:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe4ee4d…
05-08 11:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x04d609…
05-08 11:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf0019c…
05-08 11:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	0	73¢	$0	0xeaf257…
05-08 11:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x359225…
05-08 11:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x3d34e4…
05-08 11:12:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0a2529…
05-08 11:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xc8bbe0…
05-08 11:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xb18d00…
05-08 09:06:01	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x0bb59c…
05-07 16:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0xda59c8…
05-07 16:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xc9c8f4…
05-07 15:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x861fd1…
05-07 15:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xd6a053…
05-07 14:37:43	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,906	10¢	$500	0x03443b…