Powerless-Randomization — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

99.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$71

Open exposure

$338

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-22

last 10-08 03:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$6

Crypto

2% 75% +$2

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	+213	$200	96¢	$204	+$4	10-08 03:06
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	+116	$100	71¢	$82	-$18	09-21 09:19
US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	+53	$50	97¢	$52	+$2	06-26 10:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$592	299	299	+0	No	+$6	06-25 05:09
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	4	$470	358	358	+0	open	—	07-28 09:32
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	2	$200	213	0	+213	open	—	10-08 03:06
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	2	$100	116	0	+116	open	—	09-21 09:19
US x China Military clash before 2027?	1	$50	53	0	+53	open	—	06-26 10:49
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$24	12	12	+0	No	+$0	06-15 02:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	2	$21	12	12	+0	Down	+$1	05-23 08:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	+$0	05-23 06:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	Up	+$1	05-23 06:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	2	$2	3	0	+3	Down	-$2	05-22 11:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Up	+$2	05-22 11:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 03:06:10	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x81f030…
09-21 09:19:24	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x6ba263…
08-05 13:01:06	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0xe8dfef…
07-28 09:32:20	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	358	71¢	$255	0x2fff84…
06-26 10:49:59	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x6cf3b1…
06-26 10:47:34	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x09a8db…
06-25 05:09:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	299	100¢	$299	0x7e759d…
06-15 02:15:27	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	60¢	$12	0x40710c…
06-15 02:14:43	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xdf72e7…
06-14 15:53:12	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x1ecf2e…
06-13 17:16:15	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	333	60¢	$200	0x8d46f9…
06-11 00:52:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	299	98¢	$293	0xfcb859…
05-23 08:26:20	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x47e376…
05-23 08:09:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0xeec9c9…
05-23 08:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xd0a370…
05-23 06:16:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xbdf83a…
05-23 06:08:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x11ab11…
05-22 12:06:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0xb92f2f…
05-22 11:56:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xf20b91…
05-22 11:54:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x710130…
05-22 11:52:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xa300fc…