Quizzical-Spit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,184

lifetime

Volume

$121.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$103

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 07-30 01:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

70% 0% $-29

Other

28% 50% $-11

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	68	$8.5K	11,227	11,477	-250	open	—	03-30 07:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	47	$6.0K	6,441	6,441	+0	open	—	04-01 12:47
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	147	$5.4K	14,010	14,009	+1	open	—	03-11 14:31
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	41	$5.1K	5,200	5,200	+0	open	—	04-06 11:39
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	30	$4.3K	4,419	4,618	-199	open	—	03-20 20:02
iran leadership change by march 31	44	$4.0K	4,728	4,728	+0	open	—	03-30 07:23
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	27	$4.0K	4,636	4,636	+0	open	—	03-17 12:51
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	25	$3.4K	3,782	3,366	+416	open	—	04-03 11:11
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	14	$3.4K	8,237	8,237	+0	open	—	03-09 23:11
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	34	$3.1K	3,506	3,506	+0	open	—	04-02 14:09
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	20	$3.1K	4,547	4,547	+0	open	—	04-21 06:50
Iran leadership change by March 13?	21	$3.0K	5,748	5,747	+1	open	—	03-10 13:43
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	16	$2.8K	2,748	2,748	+0	open	—	03-11 15:28
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	15	$2.4K	2,257	2,257	+0	open	—	04-14 21:29
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	15	$2.4K	1,880	1,879	+1	open	—	03-12 00:46
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	14	$2.4K	1,571	1,571	+0	open	—	04-20 18:16
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	19	$2.4K	2,373	2,373	+0	open	—	03-20 06:36
Fed rate hike in 2026?	11	$1.9K	1,789	1,788	+1	open	—	07-12 02:54
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	78	$1.8K	7,327	7,326	+1	open	—	03-10 08:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	16	$1.8K	1,134	1,134	+0	open	—	04-12 13:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	10	$1.7K	1,652	1,652	+0	open	—	04-25 11:46
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	78	$1.6K	1,428	1,427	+1	open	—	03-12 00:13
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	10	$1.6K	1,467	1,467	+0	open	—	03-11 22:31
Iran leadership change by December 31?	6	$1.5K	1,047	1,047	+0	open	—	07-30 01:22
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	6	$1.5K	949	949	+0	open	—	06-07 14:42
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	6	$1.5K	1,487	1,487	+0	open	—	04-16 10:43
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	9	$1.4K	1,191	1,191	+0	open	—	03-24 08:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$1.3K	958	958	+0	open	—	05-03 15:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	18	$1.3K	1,715	1,715	+0	open	—	04-20 13:31
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	6	$1.2K	1,432	1,432	+0	open	—	04-11 18:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-30 01:22:20	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	320	77¢	$246	0x8c651d…
07-30 01:21:02	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	320	78¢	$250	0xfa2e4a…
07-30 00:47:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	242	73¢	$177	0xb578dc…
07-30 00:46:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	242	74¢	$179	0xf63d45…
07-23 22:01:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	348	45¢	$157	0x1ca3dd…
07-23 21:59:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	348	47¢	$164	0x17a062…
07-23 21:45:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	336	48¢	$161	0xbf451d…
07-23 21:44:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	336	49¢	$165	0x436ac3…
07-22 14:31:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	702	28¢	$197	0x2c861e…
07-22 14:30:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	702	28¢	$197	0xe25710…
07-12 02:54:07	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	323	38¢	$122	0x04e6a1…
07-12 02:53:01	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	64	41¢	$26	0xa6cdee…
07-12 02:52:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	388	44¢	$171	0xea92d8…
07-10 03:20:52	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	346	71¢	$246	0xcefe0f…
07-10 03:19:40	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	BUY	41	72¢	$29	0x314cd3…
07-10 03:19:38	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x9a6d16…
07-10 03:19:37	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	BUY	256	72¢	$185	0xf15f35…
07-08 13:26:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	197	56¢	$110	0xd80188…
07-08 13:26:49	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	67	56¢	$38	0xe55566…
07-08 13:25:43	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	264	57¢	$150	0x64d7ad…
07-08 03:15:28	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	362	61¢	$219	0x90db23…
07-08 03:13:11	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	362	69¢	$250	0x281572…
07-07 19:27:38	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	352	70¢	$246	0x95dd98…
07-07 19:26:11	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	352	71¢	$250	0xb2fc2c…
07-02 00:27:04	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	431	56¢	$241	0x33d446…
07-02 00:26:43	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	431	58¢	$250	0x7be083…
07-01 15:08:11	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	352	68¢	$241	0x0810bc…
07-01 15:07:38	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	352	71¢	$250	0xfeb8e5…
06-30 19:53:26	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	611	37¢	$226	0x271ef5…
06-30 19:53:01	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	611	41¢	$251	0xccf770…
06-29 02:10:35	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	409	59¢	$241	0xaa6d3e…
06-29 02:10:11	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	409	61¢	$249	0x7cdd82…
06-24 15:27:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	276	72¢	$199	0x9fbb13…
06-24 15:26:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	276	73¢	$201	0xc3c576…
06-22 13:33:53	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	333	58¢	$192	0xc63fba…
06-22 13:33:29	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	58¢	$193	0x6c37a1…
06-17 10:56:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	327	54¢	$177	0x7aed4e…
06-17 10:56:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	327	55¢	$180	0x7a0ade…
06-15 21:54:07	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	274	64¢	$175	0x43ef0a…
06-15 21:53:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	274	65¢	$178	0xa56f41…
06-13 09:34:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	304	54¢	$164	0xbbf97a…
06-13 09:33:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	304	60¢	$182	0xcbdd5e…
06-13 03:17:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	471	52¢	$245	0x2b0f8e…
06-13 03:16:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	471	53¢	$250	0x206461…
06-12 16:27:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	423	48¢	$204	0x824f39…
06-12 16:27:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	48	48¢	$23	0x216f3e…
06-12 16:25:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	471	53¢	$250	0x52e979…
06-12 15:15:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x1b16aa…
06-12 15:15:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	103	55¢	$57	0x633f13…
06-12 15:15:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	348	56¢	$195	0x3e9dc8…
06-10 21:07:40	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	406	62¢	$252	0xd9bbf4…
06-10 21:07:06	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	406	64¢	$260	0x7e851a…
06-10 12:32:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	490	52¢	$255	0x391e36…
06-10 12:31:07	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	490	53¢	$260	0xba3802…
06-10 11:10:13	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	744	34¢	$253	0x140ded…
06-10 11:09:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	744	35¢	$260	0x97a505…
06-10 10:59:00	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	329	78¢	$257	0x489f0c…
06-10 10:58:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	329	79¢	$260	0xc43f9f…
06-10 06:59:09	wti up or down on june 10 2026	Down	SELL	250	60¢	$150	0xc99e0e…
06-10 06:58:40	wti up or down on june 10 2026	Down	BUY	250	61¢	$152	0x941f82…
06-09 20:10:33	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	SELL	472	54¢	$255	0x2f44c3…
06-09 20:09:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	472	55¢	$260	0xbb2351…
06-08 11:13:39	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	SELL	1,047	17¢	$178	0x8f5e51…
06-08 11:12:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	1,047	21¢	$220	0xbc5789…
06-08 11:12:27	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	SELL	481	53¢	$255	0x22139b…
06-08 11:12:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	481	54¢	$260	0xd2cf3c…
06-07 14:42:54	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	276	79¢	$218	0x81db31…
06-07 14:42:28	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	276	80¢	$219	0x452488…
06-05 01:44:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	SELL	280	70¢	$196	0x7cef59…
06-05 01:44:16	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	130	70¢	$91	0xa478c8…
06-05 01:44:16	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	150	70¢	$105	0x73f0c4…
06-04 12:17:54	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	No	SELL	315	77¢	$244	0x8849f0…
06-04 12:17:06	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	No	BUY	315	78¢	$246	0x0f2eca…
06-04 04:09:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	360	60¢	$216	0x0e4bee…
06-04 04:08:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	360	61¢	$220	0xeda92d…
06-03 22:13:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	297	73¢	$217	0xa3a51b…
06-03 22:12:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	297	74¢	$220	0x13de39…
06-03 19:53:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	337	76¢	$256	0xae382a…
06-03 19:52:15	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	337	77¢	$259	0xc0f720…
06-03 18:12:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	336	77¢	$260	0x539faa…
06-03 18:11:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	336	77¢	$260	0xb569d9…
06-02 23:09:33	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	361	71¢	$256	0xa56e18…
06-02 23:09:07	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	361	72¢	$260	0xadfbb8…
05-30 08:02:46	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	366	70¢	$257	0xad1f07…
05-30 08:02:24	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	366	71¢	$260	0x4d916d…
05-20 14:20:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x9171e8…
05-20 14:19:55	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x2d3432…
05-20 11:30:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	148	65¢	$97	0xff5623…
05-20 11:30:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	149	66¢	$98	0x76eff9…
05-08 18:01:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	388	63¢	$243	0xa494c0…
05-08 18:01:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	388	67¢	$260	0x7ab262…
05-07 06:50:28	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	SELL	18	45¢	$8	0xe34354…
05-07 06:50:05	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0x03ee1c…
05-05 05:43:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0x7a02d0…
05-05 05:43:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	318	66¢	$210	0x781aac…
05-05 05:43:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	319	69¢	$220	0xcab95a…
05-05 03:00:04	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?	Yes	SELL	79	45¢	$36	0x4aa3f1…
05-05 02:58:44	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x82ffba…
05-05 02:58:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0xb5c462…
05-05 02:58:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x68fb3e…