Tragic-Mink — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

47.0%

Resolved

Trades

244

lifetime

Volume

$10.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-18

last 06-22 11:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

59% — —

Politics

36% 60% $-5

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes		+76	$5	6¢	$4	$-1	06-22 11:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	8	$523	385	385	+0	open	—	03-20 04:48
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	9	$485	255	255	+0	No	$-3	05-07 08:42
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	5	$400	208	208	+0	open	—	04-05 05:42
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	5	$343	176	176	+0	open	—	04-26 15:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	4	$331	176	176	+0	open	—	05-12 16:01
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	4	$331	167	167	+0	open	—	04-30 21:40
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	5	$309	167	167	+0	open	—	04-20 01:47
will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	7	$286	406	406	+0	open	—	03-19 09:39
will trn lu quang be the next prime minister of vietnam	2	$281	145	145	+0	open	—	03-18 11:25
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 440 459	3	$235	123	123	+0	open	—	03-20 15:07
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	4	$220	300	300	+0	open	—	04-06 22:10
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 460 479	4	$216	112	112	+0	open	—	03-23 06:03
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	2	$212	117	117	+0	open	—	04-01 01:06
will min woo lee win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$212	312	312	+0	open	—	04-06 11:02
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	2	$204	106	106	+0	open	—	04-12 01:13
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	7	$203	278	278	+0	open	—	04-21 11:23
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	2	$202	103	103	+0	open	—	04-12 11:19
will michigan state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	4	$196	158	158	+0	open	—	03-27 15:58
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	2	$194	100	100	+0	open	—	04-02 12:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	4	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-08 08:57
will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$193	300	300	+0	open	—	04-12 15:43
military action against iran ends on march 28 2026	3	$192	98	98	+0	open	—	03-25 23:09
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	3	$191	103	103	+0	open	—	04-20 06:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$191	102	102	+0	open	—	04-25 04:22
Will Iran strike Italy by April 30, 2026?	2	$191	96	96	+0	open	—	04-23 00:49
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$190	98	98	+0	open	—	04-24 12:21
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	2	$187	96	96	+0	open	—	04-27 08:07
Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?	2	$187	95	95	+0	open	—	04-26 08:56
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	2	$186	94	94	+0	open	—	04-27 01:57
will robert macintyre win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$183	94	94	+0	open	—	04-08 03:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 11:34:16	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	76	6¢	$5	0xb9a06d…
05-19 05:23:58	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0xb891e3…
05-19 05:23:58	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xb36d27…
05-18 22:25:10	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	16	4¢	$1	0x230e59…
05-18 22:25:10	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x027d66…
05-13 06:41:01	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	62	3¢	$2	0x4a226c…
05-12 16:01:59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	83	95¢	$79	0x905587…
05-12 09:21:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	83	95¢	$79	0xcf4769…
05-12 03:05:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	81	97¢	$79	0x51126b…
05-12 01:29:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xfbcbe8…
05-12 01:29:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0xc41c45…
05-11 10:02:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	93	94¢	$87	0x06483d…
05-11 07:11:17	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	93	94¢	$87	0xaef551…
05-09 20:43:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	90	97¢	$87	0x241758…
05-09 18:02:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$87	0xee3377…
05-09 09:24:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	4¢	$3	0x2f330c…
05-09 08:03:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0xfd01c0…
05-09 08:03:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	3¢	$3	0x1e9a90…
05-08 12:34:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	82	96¢	$79	0xc5079a…
05-08 10:17:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	82	96¢	$79	0x435bb6…
05-08 08:57:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xbc294f…
05-08 06:52:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x541d3a…
05-08 01:35:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	89	97¢	$87	0x01d1f0…
05-07 22:54:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	89	97¢	$86	0xc37fea…
05-07 08:42:59	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	85	93¢	$79	0x88cdd3…
05-07 04:21:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xb1ee25…
05-07 04:21:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	84	95¢	$80	0xaf700f…
05-06 22:46:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	86	94¢	$81	0x881194…
05-06 21:08:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	86	95¢	$82	0xa88c96…
05-06 15:13:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	22	5¢	$1	0x2024c4…
05-06 12:45:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	22	6¢	$1	0x2054ed…
05-06 06:03:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	53	97¢	$51	0x4daab2…
05-06 06:03:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x25be26…
05-06 06:03:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1844b7…
05-06 04:59:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	84	97¢	$81	0x9b311f…
05-05 18:57:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0xeba3e8…
05-05 15:56:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	42	96¢	$40	0xfd788d…
05-05 11:56:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	85	97¢	$82	0x0950d2…
05-01 07:56:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	4¢	$8	0x91bf44…
05-01 05:35:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	6¢	$4	0xe73209…
05-01 05:35:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x993098…
05-01 05:35:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	6¢	$5	0x3105c4…
04-30 21:40:16	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	73	100¢	$73	0xc9d298…
04-30 19:05:18	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0xbd6606…
04-30 12:11:36	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0xa903c9…
04-30 10:42:52	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	94	98¢	$93	0xeecf91…
04-27 15:54:44	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	1¢	$1	0xf624ca…
04-27 15:54:44	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	1¢	$0	0xab4fff…
04-27 12:05:20	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	1¢	$2	0x3a8112…
04-27 08:07:34	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	SELL	96	97¢	$94	0xdb5610…
04-27 06:16:48	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	BUY	96	97¢	$93	0xd11ab6…
04-27 01:57:48	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0xbd0c6e…
04-27 00:03:00	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0xc1a83d…
04-26 15:01:34	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	86	99¢	$85	0x5782ca…
04-26 12:02:08	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	86	98¢	$85	0x94e89d…
04-26 08:56:54	Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	95	98¢	$93	0xb06504…
04-26 07:26:10	Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	95	98¢	$93	0xade720…
04-26 00:57:26	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	59	4¢	$3	0xa63891…
04-26 00:56:48	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	61	4¢	$3	0xe14b96…
04-26 00:56:48	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	130	4¢	$6	0x144e8d…
04-26 00:56:48	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0x11fb63…
04-25 23:49:22	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	269	5¢	$14	0x6baeb0…
04-25 04:22:58	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	102	94¢	$96	0x8b7821…
04-25 02:06:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	102	94¢	$95	0x9b0f6e…
04-24 12:21:24	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	98	97¢	$95	0xc19004…
04-24 10:32:32	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	98	97¢	$95	0x3bd79d…
04-24 03:17:52	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	89	98¢	$87	0xe73bb6…
04-24 00:22:44	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	89	98¢	$87	0xedc833…
04-23 20:49:10	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0xfd5895…
04-23 20:49:10	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x9ae6be…
04-23 17:07:42	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0x28dbbf…
04-23 12:38:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	SELL	71	96¢	$68	0xb300bb…
04-23 12:38:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0x82a484…
04-23 08:35:24	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	90	96¢	$87	0x407cca…
04-23 00:49:54	Will Iran strike Italy by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	96	99¢	$95	0xbc6c8c…
04-22 21:53:08	Will Iran strike Italy by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0xcfa774…
04-21 11:23:32	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	SELL	98	98¢	$96	0xca7cba…
04-21 10:16:46	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	BUY	98	98¢	$96	0xf33301…
04-21 02:36:04	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	142	5¢	$7	0x7ce811…
04-21 00:53:14	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	53	5¢	$3	0xe3b6f5…
04-21 00:53:14	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	5¢	$1	0xb6b0d0…
04-21 00:53:14	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	75	5¢	$4	0x75f3d2…
04-20 11:00:14	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x41d1c1…
04-20 11:00:12	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$39	0x1a4d02…
04-20 09:47:12	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$87	0x1df5cd…
04-20 06:50:54	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	93¢	$31	0xa01a7f…
04-20 06:50:54	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	70	93¢	$65	0x53a2f0…
04-20 04:44:08	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	103	93¢	$96	0x802efd…
04-20 01:47:30	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	SELL	67	96¢	$64	0xa37e6c…
04-18 22:42:42	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	67	92¢	$62	0xb72a47…
04-18 16:42:22	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0xafe878…
04-18 14:15:36	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	37	98¢	$36	0x911c75…
04-16 06:39:42	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	SELL	85	100¢	$85	0xd5a57d…
04-16 02:06:30	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	85	99¢	$84	0xc5cf72…
04-15 09:42:24	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xb3ff90…
04-15 09:42:24	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	57	99¢	$56	0x97b9ba…
04-15 07:13:34	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	85	99¢	$84	0xfe264d…
04-14 14:32:31	will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	No	SELL	150	1¢	$2	0xd48d20…
04-14 14:32:31	will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	No	SELL	38	1¢	$0	0xa8644b…
04-14 09:15:33	will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	No	BUY	129	1¢	$1	0xfd3753…