Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$86

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

75.6%

Resolved

302

Trades

460

lifetime

Volume

$6.15K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$207

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-12 11:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Other

39% 62% +$16

Sports

24% 60% +$173

Crypto

20% 91% -$73

Politics

14% 86% -$38

Tech

2% 79% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes		+209	$160	72¢	$149	-$11	10-08 11:56
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes		+103	$60	56¢	$58	-$2	10-12 11:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will maru reach 600m in q1	1	$198	200	0	+200	Yes	+$2	02-11 11:06
lol los fur 2026 02 21 game3	8	$196	260	100	+160	FURIA Esports	+$2	02-22 18:33
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by january 10	4	$180	100	100	+0	No	+$2	01-10 02:26
bitcoin above 82k on january 31	10	$166	90	90	+0	No	+$1	01-31 13:59
will anyone be charged over daycare fraud in minnesota	2	$164	100	100	+0	No	+$2	01-09 14:36
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$160	209	0	+209	open	—	10-08 11:56
bitcoin up or down on january 9	10	$119	220	0	+220	Up	-$119	01-08 20:29
will zachxbt release his investigation on february 26	1	$96	100	0	+100	Yes	+$4	02-25 14:11
lol kc vit 2026 02 22 game1	2	$95	200	0	+200	Team Vitality	+$5	02-22 18:56
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026?	1	$94	100	0	+100	Yes	+$6	02-13 18:57
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$89	100	0	+100	Yes	-$89	02-28 04:38
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$89	100	0	+100	No	+$11	03-12 16:15
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$86	50	50	+0	open	—	10-12 11:11
bitcoin up or down on january 25	10	$81	50	50	+0	Down	+$1	01-25 14:23
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	1	$81	100	0	+100	Yes	+$19	02-28 04:38
bitcoin above 80k on february 2	2	$75	40	40	+0	No	+$0	02-02 13:58
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$60	103	0	+103	open	—	10-12 11:12
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	2	$58	60	0	+60	Yes	+$2	05-11 21:12
ethereum up or down on january 28	3	$53	30	30	+0	Up	+$0	01-28 13:30
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	2	$53	65	0	+65	No	+$12	03-04 15:09
military action against iran ends on march 17 2026	2	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	03-17 16:05
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	03-20 10:55
bitcoin above 66k on march 9	1	$48	50	0	+50	Yes	+$2	03-09 13:24
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$44	50	0	+50	Yes	+$6	03-12 15:47
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	2	$41	30	30	+0	No	+$0	02-02 14:00
lol navi sk 2026 03 30	1	$39	40	0	+40	Natus Vincere	+$1	03-30 17:56
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	1	$38	40	0	+40	No	+$2	03-08 06:29
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	1	$37	40	0	+40	No	+$3	04-14 21:58
lol jdg wb 2026 01 29 game1	3	$35	60	30	+30	Weibo Gaming	-$18	01-29 11:33
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	2	$34	43	0	+43	Yes	+$9	03-04 15:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 11:12:18	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	73	59¢	$43	0xb165e3…
10-12 11:11:59	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x0ead84…
10-08 11:56:18	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	201	77¢	$155	0x124d55…
09-15 12:13:25	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x4b37ae…
09-14 15:31:07	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x852c89…
09-13 19:26:00	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xd499be…
09-13 12:59:18	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0x50c493…
09-09 19:47:12	Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x0d81e3…
09-09 19:46:57	Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xe810a8…
09-09 11:48:28	Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x2ff6aa…
09-09 02:39:58	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xd1de2d…
09-08 12:12:22	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	19	89¢	$17	0xa3fae3…
09-08 12:12:10	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x519e13…
09-07 06:38:10	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xe2f1bc…
09-07 04:46:12	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xaa1c83…
09-06 23:05:46	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x7de134…
09-06 19:47:33	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xcf8f89…
09-06 14:58:04	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xf284c6…
09-06 14:56:46	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x0924b4…
09-06 14:56:37	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x301d57…
09-06 14:55:54	Will Z.ai be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x5b5b48…
09-06 14:55:36	Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x11e5f2…
09-06 14:30:06	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x9fb8c9…
09-06 14:28:25	Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x32061f…
09-06 14:28:15	Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x1d78ae…
09-06 14:28:06	Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x18049a…
09-06 14:27:10	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x0de5cf…
09-06 14:27:01	Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x59e5c4…
09-06 14:26:51	Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x39ec7a…
08-27 08:25:25	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xac7530…
08-26 20:23:57	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x1fd467…
08-26 20:23:52	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0xb69dcc…
08-26 20:20:12	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x9e50e0…
08-26 18:25:03	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x30e052…
08-26 18:20:51	Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x85ce17…
08-26 17:26:00	Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x90a6ea…
06-09 19:58:52	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x9e1b43…
06-05 08:54:51	Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	4	87¢	$4	0x993a32…
06-05 05:15:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x75221e…
06-05 03:21:51	Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xadf255…
06-04 20:25:43	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	88¢	$4	0xf7f813…
06-04 20:21:19	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x7d2380…
06-04 18:33:33	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x80e1d9…
06-04 17:07:01	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x87bdea…
06-04 14:32:06	Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x31eeac…
06-04 14:20:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x4f8ebc…
06-04 12:43:24	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	BUY	17	85¢	$14	0xf3d0c7…
06-04 12:43:15	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0xf98c0d…
06-01 03:31:47	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xffd84f…
05-31 09:29:28	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xe7819c…
05-31 07:04:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x137c31…
05-24 19:32:15	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xbc514b…
05-24 19:27:58	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xb50018…
05-24 19:23:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xa7a88c…
05-24 19:17:28	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xccfc1a…
05-24 19:16:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xfd5978…
05-24 19:15:48	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x349510…
05-24 19:13:56	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x59feb0…
05-24 19:11:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x32971e…
05-12 14:21:06	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x5a3239…
05-12 13:04:08	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x6b2033…
05-12 05:56:14	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x5b27ff…
05-12 00:00:06	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x629379…
05-11 22:34:44	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x616173…
05-11 21:47:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xf638b7…
05-11 21:12:29	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x0b9abe…
05-11 20:57:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x9a302a…
05-01 09:41:56	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xbdc74d…
04-27 00:04:26	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 27?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x811c0d…
04-26 22:57:58	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0xa4ee3a…
04-23 14:43:08	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xc93798…
04-23 14:40:34	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xb1de4e…
04-23 14:40:24	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x81ade3…
04-14 21:58:40	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x62eaa9…
04-14 18:44:48	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x4d0e6c…
04-07 15:41:59	atp norrie minaur 2026 04 08	Alex de Minaur	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xf5629b…
04-07 15:38:05	hr1 ist haj 2026 04 07 spread home 1pt5	HNK Hajduk Split	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x081f27…
04-03 15:58:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb7eb4f…
03-30 17:56:53	lol navi sk 2026 03 30	Natus Vincere	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xa5202e…
03-25 14:03:51	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xe8409c…
03-25 13:35:17	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xeee1f2…
03-25 13:30:45	bitcoin above 70k on march 25	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x756826…
03-22 05:11:59	bitcoin above 66k on march 22	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x68ed46…
03-20 10:55:49	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x0a99c3…
03-20 10:55:11	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x007e12…
03-20 10:54:37	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x51b877…
03-17 16:05:35	military action against iran ends on march 17 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x5d55b2…
03-17 08:41:51	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xc5add1…
03-17 08:00:59	military action against iran ends on march 17 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xfdafc7…
03-16 10:25:17	bitcoin up or down on march 16 2026	Up	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xe9a4f8…
03-15 09:59:45	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	No	BUY	23	96¢	$23	0xbd4e21…
03-12 16:15:55	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x3517f7…
03-12 15:47:35	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x4045b1…
03-12 14:38:09	bitcoin above 68k on march 12	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x2cd931…
03-09 14:15:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xc9838e…
03-09 13:24:29	bitcoin above 66k on march 9	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x603114…
03-08 06:29:11	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x36c301…
03-05 17:46:15	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xb1f977…
03-05 15:21:27	will another country strike iran by march 7 528	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xfb868a…
03-05 15:16:31	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2f8047…