Distorted-Quality — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$764

Unrealized P&L

+$28

Hit rate

96.1%

Resolved

Trades

176

lifetime

Volume

$59.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$335

Open exposure

$1.76K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-24 06:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Politics

59% 100% +$199

Other

32% 93% +$338

Sports

4% 100% +$120

Tech

3% 100% +$105

Crypto

2% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No		+1,731	$1,691	99¢	$1.7K	+$27	10-24 06:11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes		+39	$38	100¢	$39	+$1	10-24 03:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$2.3K	1,131	1,131	+0	Yes	+$0	05-13 22:53
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$2.2K	1,118	1,118	+0	No	+$1	07-17 16:22
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	2	$2.1K	1,028	1,028	+0	Yes	+$2	05-25 02:02
Iran leadership change by October 31?	4	$1.7K	1,731	0	+1,731	open	—	10-24 06:11
will iran strike israel on march 10	3	$1.7K	834	834	+0	Yes	+$0	03-16 02:48
iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	9	$1.6K	1,629	0	+1,629	No	+$2	08-23 06:05
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	1	$1.6K	1,729	0	+1,729	Yes	+$104	08-27 04:08
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	2	$1.6K	1,627	0	+1,627	Yes	+$7	08-15 00:29
lol dkc nsea 2026 08 05 game2	1	$1.6K	1,621	0	+1,621	Dplus KIA Challengers	+$2	08-05 08:41
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	4	$1.6K	1,619	0	+1,619	No	+$6	08-04 04:07
will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	1	$1.6K	1,613	0	+1,613	No	+$5	08-01 03:15
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	1	$1.6K	1,608	0	+1,608	Yes	+$2	07-28 01:34
over 40m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129611 286 153	1	$1.6K	1,607	0	+1,607	No	+$16	07-25 13:24
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	2	$1.6K	1,591	0	+1,591	Yes	+$11	07-20 01:50
over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	3	$1.3K	1,514	0	+1,514	Yes	+$223	07-17 16:43
israel closes its airspace by june 10	1	$1.3K	1,266	0	+1,266	No	+$1	06-11 07:32
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$1.2K	1,214	0	+1,214	No	+$1	06-01 17:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$1.2K	1,161	0	+1,161	No	+$3	05-23 01:33
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1.2K	1,158	0	+1,158	No	+$6	05-20 12:42
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	1	$1.1K	1,152	0	+1,152	No	+$6	05-19 02:36
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	1	$1.1K	1,100	0	+1,100	No	+$3	04-24 12:05
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	25	$1.1K	1,096	0	+1,096	No	+$2	04-24 05:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$1.1K	1,094	0	+1,094	No	+$4	04-22 02:46
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$1.1K	1,076	0	+1,076	Yes	+$2	04-09 03:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	1	$952	957	0	+957	No	+$6	05-28 02:37
iran successfully targets shipping on july 8 20260625225210249	1	$948	948	0	+948	No	+$1	07-11 03:05
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals ismael saibari gte1	1	$947	947	0	+947	No	+$1	07-09 12:21
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	1	$854	864	0	+864	No	+$10	05-13 22:53
will trump say jesus this week march 8	3	$827	831	0	+831	Yes	+$4	03-11 12:55
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	2	$825	827	0	+827	No	+$2	01-30 13:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 06:11:56	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	1,436	98¢	$1,403	0xc23df0…
10-24 06:11:47	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	118	98¢	$115	0xd3ce83…
10-24 06:11:35	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	167	98¢	$163	0x37c2a4…
10-24 03:31:27	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2aeb86…
10-24 03:30:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0xb7ee7a…
08-27 04:08:31	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,729	94¢	$1,625	0xc51490…
08-23 06:05:10	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x09a0f4…
08-23 04:41:43	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0xa94173…
08-23 04:36:24	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x64616c…
08-23 03:45:31	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	650	100¢	$650	0xfa908a…
08-23 01:03:10	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x33b712…
08-23 01:02:49	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0x625e8e…
08-23 00:57:58	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa6959e…
08-23 00:54:37	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x76f425…
08-23 00:40:01	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	686	100¢	$685	0xcbfcf3…
08-15 00:29:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	660	100¢	$657	0xcc9590…
08-15 00:27:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	967	100¢	$963	0x22ab58…
08-05 08:41:11	lol dkc nsea 2026 08 05 game2	Dplus KIA Challengers	BUY	1,621	100¢	$1,619	0xb53a25…
08-04 04:07:14	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	358	100¢	$357	0x229f11…
08-04 04:05:33	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	810	100¢	$807	0xe49845…
08-04 04:05:33	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	405	100¢	$403	0x7b4231…
08-04 04:05:29	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0xdb29b5…
08-01 03:15:27	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	BUY	1,613	100¢	$1,608	0x6bee7e…
07-28 01:34:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	Yes	BUY	1,608	100¢	$1,607	0xf5538c…
07-25 13:24:39	over 40m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129611 286 153	No	BUY	1,607	99¢	$1,591	0xe5ecd9…
07-20 01:50:00	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	483	99¢	$480	0x085c91…
07-20 01:49:27	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,108	99¢	$1,101	0x0f82f7…
07-17 16:43:58	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	BUY	62	92¢	$57	0x1b2fcb…
07-17 16:23:21	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	BUY	1,111	85¢	$944	0xc6ba35…
07-17 16:23:07	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	BUY	341	85¢	$290	0x59151a…
07-17 16:22:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1,118	100¢	$1,116	0x1db3d6…
07-17 16:21:52	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	239	100¢	$238	0x9e1c53…
07-17 06:37:18	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	239	93¢	$222	0x131e39…
07-14 00:13:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,118	100¢	$1,115	0x051356…
07-11 03:05:47	iran successfully targets shipping on july 8 20260625225210249	No	BUY	948	100¢	$948	0x73cbeb…
07-09 12:21:23	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals ismael saibari gte1	No	BUY	947	100¢	$947	0xb15c12…
07-05 13:53:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	343	100¢	$343	0x96aa08…
06-14 01:18:24	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	166	98¢	$162	0x3c45ee…
06-14 01:18:04	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	171	95¢	$162	0x76bf95…
06-14 01:17:51	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	331	98¢	$324	0x1065e4…
06-14 01:17:31	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	170	95¢	$162	0x4fbeec…
06-14 01:17:07	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	223	90¢	$202	0xc18e0e…
06-14 01:17:00	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	273	93¢	$253	0x80b518…
06-11 07:32:15	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	1,266	100¢	$1,265	0x81e1e6…
06-08 12:20:15	Bahrain vs. Syria: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd758e5…
06-08 10:41:36	Bahrain vs. Syria: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	518	100¢	$518	0x563989…
06-05 08:46:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	No	BUY	392	99¢	$388	0x69411b…
06-05 06:18:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xba7d34…
06-05 00:41:00	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	BUY	413	94¢	$389	0x157feb…
06-05 00:37:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x689430…
06-05 00:37:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	258	94¢	$243	0x42bc78…
06-01 17:02:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,214	100¢	$1,213	0xc256c6…
06-01 01:50:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	601	100¢	$600	0x17e070…
05-31 14:25:05	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x989b58…
05-31 12:18:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	610	98¢	$601	0x080b75…
05-31 12:18:35	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	244	100¢	$244	0x739616…
05-28 02:37:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	957	99¢	$952	0x69a56a…
05-25 04:13:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	404	97¢	$392	0x9c0235…
05-25 02:03:40	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	No	BUY	395	99¢	$392	0x106cb7…
05-25 02:02:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	244	100¢	$243	0xc93d9d…
05-25 02:02:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	SELL	1,028	100¢	$1,027	0xf415c1…
05-24 01:35:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	1,028	100¢	$1,025	0xd03fc2…
05-24 01:27:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0xdfbed7…
05-24 01:27:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0x637255…
05-24 01:27:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	90	84¢	$75	0xc89a01…
05-24 01:21:58	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x2d60f3…
05-23 01:33:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1,161	100¢	$1,158	0xc162c1…
05-20 12:42:13	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,158	100¢	$1,152	0x85d25c…
05-19 02:36:17	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1,152	100¢	$1,146	0x07c130…
05-13 22:53:59	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	283	97¢	$275	0xb3326f…
05-13 22:53:45	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	864	99¢	$854	0xf2e24f…
05-13 22:53:29	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1,131	100¢	$1,130	0x3c4ef2…
05-12 15:47:45	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,131	100¢	$1,130	0x6f99ef…
05-01 03:32:30	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	511	100¢	$509	0xf21b05…
04-30 03:55:18	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x38d753…
04-29 15:15:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	533	100¢	$533	0x965a27…
04-27 03:41:00	Will Trump dance today?	Yes	BUY	533	99¢	$529	0x9c56f4…
04-25 17:04:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	529	100¢	$528	0xa38888…
04-25 16:49:38	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	178	99¢	$176	0xf1b8b0…
04-25 15:49:48	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	181	98¢	$176	0xa52853…
04-25 15:33:04	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	236	93¢	$220	0x328b15…
04-24 12:05:02	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	1,100	100¢	$1,096	0x16ac9d…
04-24 05:08:36	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	69	100¢	$68	0x5eceb0…
04-24 03:46:18	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7ba224…
04-24 03:01:56	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x30b338…
04-24 02:59:10	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2f1868…
04-24 02:52:50	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x28b9fe…
04-24 02:40:26	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0xd5e9bc…
04-24 02:38:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0x92586a…
04-24 02:36:36	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbdfec2…
04-24 02:36:34	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9a5e50…
04-24 02:36:32	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbfd16c…
04-24 02:36:32	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7bbee1…
04-24 02:36:32	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x74e749…
04-24 02:36:32	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x178ccf…
04-24 02:36:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdf462e…
04-24 02:36:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd8b5f9…
04-24 02:36:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x03a87b…
04-24 02:25:24	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf7435a…
04-24 02:24:12	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x78feda…