Rubbery-Butcher — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

$98

1 position

First seen

2026-02-16

last 06-06 12:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

90% — —

Other

6% — —

Crypto

4% 40% $-25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+145	$100	68¢	$98	$-2	06-06 12:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$1.1K	654	654	+0	open	—	02-28 21:43
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	3	$383	242	242	+0	open	—	04-16 00:13
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$198	111	111	+0	open	—	04-13 00:01
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1	$176	232	0	+232	open	—	03-01 00:16
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	3	$151	78	78	+0	open	—	02-20 05:28
iran strike on israel by february 28	2	$151	80	80	+0	open	—	02-28 10:17
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$150	296	0	+296	open	—	06-04 04:05
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	3	$143	98	186	-88	open	—	02-23 17:42
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	2	$133	283	283	+0	open	—	02-25 05:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$100	145	0	+145	open	—	06-06 12:59
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	2	$94	236	0	+236	open	—	02-26 13:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$78	107	107	+0	open	—	04-22 06:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	5	$78	55	55	+0	Up	+$16	05-09 12:16
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	1	$70	114	0	+114	open	—	05-28 14:28
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	2	$58	38	38	+0	open	—	04-16 13:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	1	$50	79	0	+79	open	—	03-01 00:16
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$39	24	24	+0	open	—	02-23 17:41
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	2	$34	38	38	+0	open	—	04-16 15:27
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	2	$33	27	27	+0	open	—	02-23 17:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	3	$30	48	0	+48	Up	$-30	05-09 12:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	2	$24	14	14	+0	Down	+$4	05-09 12:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$20	36	0	+36	open	—	03-01 00:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	1	$10	1,000	0	+1,000	Up	$-10	05-09 12:24
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	04-13 00:19
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	1	$10	36	0	+36	open	—	03-01 00:15
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	1	$10	38	0	+38	open	—	04-13 00:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	04-17 02:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	1	$5	21	0	+21	Down	$-5	05-10 03:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 12:59:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x28ff9e…
06-04 04:05:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0xf60343…
05-28 14:28:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	114	61¢	$70	0x756e9b…
05-28 14:24:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x9527b6…
05-10 03:56:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xf48506…
05-09 12:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xc4b542…
05-09 12:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x56a966…
05-09 12:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x416eb3…
05-09 12:16:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xbef699…
05-09 12:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x00c949…
05-09 12:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x691d1a…
05-09 12:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x714a16…
05-09 12:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	15	52¢	$8	0xc27302…
05-09 12:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xa36c8a…
05-09 12:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xb78509…
05-09 12:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x5f7edc…
04-22 06:51:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	45¢	$48	0x27efec…
04-17 02:53:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x01a85c…
04-16 15:27:48	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	63¢	$24	0x7a7c33…
04-16 13:34:42	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	78¢	$30	0x06b879…
04-16 03:59:02	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xa8ac33…
04-16 00:13:08	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	242	86¢	$208	0x8afcb8…
04-15 13:33:26	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	74¢	$28	0xbc4ba5…
04-15 02:12:04	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	178	81¢	$144	0x7f302c…
04-13 00:19:27	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xd2c243…
04-13 00:19:17	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x716e71…
04-13 00:17:09	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0x2e9158…
04-13 00:01:43	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0x032911…
04-12 16:12:19	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	84	81¢	$68	0x5adaef…
04-12 03:23:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0x3213a3…
04-12 03:22:17	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x73ace6…
03-01 00:16:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	232	76¢	$176	0xfabfaa…
03-01 00:16:15	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	79	64¢	$50	0x87bb4d…
03-01 00:15:33	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x521d43…
03-01 00:15:15	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xbfd7b3…
02-28 21:43:27	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	260	99¢	$256	0xfab89c…
02-28 21:14:13	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	260	93¢	$242	0x97fcb8…
02-28 19:42:37	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	249	97¢	$242	0x430a47…
02-28 16:45:01	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	249	78¢	$194	0x41bcc5…
02-28 15:25:47	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	145	69¢	$100	0xdf023f…
02-28 12:08:11	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	145	52¢	$75	0x814845…
02-28 10:17:07	iran strike on israel by february 28	Yes	SELL	80	94¢	$75	0xa98eae…
02-28 10:16:11	iran strike on israel by february 28	Yes	BUY	80	95¢	$76	0x1e70aa…
02-26 13:21:44	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	71¢	$54	0xaa21f1…
02-25 05:34:38	US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	283	19¢	$54	0x51e648…
02-23 17:44:26	US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	283	28¢	$79	0xffacd5…
02-23 17:42:06	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	88	30¢	$26	0x71101a…
02-23 17:41:34	US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	No	SELL	27	48¢	$13	0xb2f52e…
02-23 17:41:08	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	SELL	24	79¢	$19	0xb24dbe…
02-20 11:02:28	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	160	25¢	$40	0xd1b817…
02-20 05:28:30	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	SELL	78	97¢	$76	0xceef63…
02-20 03:08:10	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	BUY	68	97¢	$67	0x58732d…
02-20 03:04:04	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	68¢	$67	0x2fb753…
02-19 00:58:02	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x35c185…
02-16 17:02:21	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x841bc9…
02-16 17:01:53	US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x62712d…
02-16 17:01:37	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x017478…