Quixotic-Significance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

64.2%

Resolved

Trades

944

lifetime

Volume

$11.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$76

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 20:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

57% — —

Politics

34% 67% $-7

Crypto

5% — —

Pop-Culture

4% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+44	$30	68¢	$30	$-1	06-08 16:25
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	+13	$8	78¢	$10	+$2	06-08 12:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	-10	$-8	84¢	$-8	$-0	06-07 21:44
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	+10	$7	80¢	$8	+$1	06-09 19:29
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	+8	$7	82¢	$7	$-0	06-09 20:25
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	+13	$5	40¢	$5	+$0	06-09 17:41
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	+24	$5	20¢	$5	$-0	06-09 17:41
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	+5	$3	66¢	$3	+$1	06-09 17:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	23	$844	636	636	+0	open	—	02-01 13:16
maduro mugshot released by monday	49	$774	357	1,242	-885	open	—	01-04 18:32
cilia flores released from custody by january 31 2026	29	$359	303	870	-567	open	—	01-04 13:32
spx up or down on february 2 2026	7	$349	200	200	+0	open	—	02-02 16:28
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	25	$316	293	282	+11	open	—	01-17 02:18
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	4	$278	301	514	-213	open	—	02-02 19:07
will silver si hit low 75 by end of february 739 471 473 237 171 573 124 784	22	$267	445	445	+0	open	—	01-31 16:06
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 90 114	4	$260	186	186	+0	open	—	02-02 10:48
will golden ejae and mark sonnenblick win song of the year at the 68th annual grammy awards	11	$249	159	159	+0	open	—	02-01 15:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	6	$223	131	117	+14	open	—	06-08 20:29
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	7	$216	150	250	-100	open	—	02-04 14:30
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	9	$209	109	109	+0	open	—	01-31 00:06
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 360 379	16	$199	255	255	+0	open	—	02-02 11:16
will silver si hit high 130 by end of february 915 491 526 914 543 364	13	$195	450	300	+150	open	—	01-31 15:17
will epstein data set 13 be released by february 28	3	$186	209	209	+0	open	—	02-02 14:05
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	9	$183	118	82	+36	open	—	01-31 17:03
odds of gov shutdown over 90 on friday night	8	$180	262	262	+0	open	—	01-30 23:36
will deb tirar ms fotos bad bunny win album of the year at the 68th annual grammy awards	2	$147	100	100	+0	open	—	02-02 01:40
elon musk 48h tweets january 5 january 7 140plus	13	$127	81	120	-39	open	—	01-07 14:09
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	2	$114	100	100	+0	open	—	02-01 15:40
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$114	79	79	+0	open	—	02-03 09:36
will silver si hit low 65 by end of february 598 917 186 187 154 235 433 943	6	$111	172	172	+0	open	—	01-31 15:22
will silver si hit high 140 by end of february 384 774 953 735 356	9	$106	300	400	-100	open	—	01-31 16:56
will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	3	$105	91	91	+0	open	—	02-12 11:44
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	5	$103	52	52	+0	open	—	02-07 22:56
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	2	$103	52	52	+0	open	—	02-02 10:06
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	5	$101	51	51	+0	open	—	02-01 23:49
us strikes iran by january 29 2026 183 883 657 383 499	7	$98	50	50	+0	open	—	01-29 23:56
will tim walz drop out by march 31	6	$89	85	170	-85	open	—	01-05 11:36
will mike tomlin be fired by february 28	3	$89	0	180	-180	open	—	01-12 05:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 20:25:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x1606c4…
06-09 19:29:46	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x29e155…
06-09 19:29:39	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x38e41f…
06-09 17:42:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xa2c012…
06-09 17:41:57	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xd3a0c9…
06-09 17:41:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x82a2be…
06-08 20:59:24	wti up or down on june 8 2026	Up	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x468f82…
06-08 20:29:51	wti up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x7386ae…
06-08 20:29:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x8a1fd6…
06-08 17:11:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	57	95¢	$54	0x71da86…
06-08 16:25:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	69¢	$30	0xe4dbb7…
06-08 12:19:04	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	BUY	1	66¢	$1	0xfec57f…
06-08 07:39:21	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x195523…
06-08 07:30:25	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xe8da4a…
06-08 04:32:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x1877ad…
06-07 21:44:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xe8cfa4…
06-05 17:34:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	57	90¢	$51	0xd0d7e8…
06-05 15:33:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0xf93948…
06-03 13:49:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	35	89¢	$31	0x10f865…
06-03 13:48:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0x8330b0…
06-01 00:51:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x082bce…
05-31 23:59:48	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x7f4726…
05-31 22:12:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0x472fc5…
05-28 02:09:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	32	74¢	$24	0x04edcc…
05-23 14:02:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	24	87¢	$21	0x8410a3…
05-22 09:55:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xe490a2…
05-21 14:35:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$5	0xb5c3d8…
05-20 11:08:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x4d8868…
05-19 23:56:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xbab686…
05-16 16:10:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x8efa71…
05-15 22:28:42	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x0fe255…
05-15 18:41:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x097b7c…
05-15 17:34:11	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0xd95f1f…
05-15 03:22:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x40d358…
05-14 22:17:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x666c80…
05-05 13:55:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x35d979…
05-05 13:45:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	30	23¢	$7	0x27f379…
05-04 18:20:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x3f0a2a…
05-04 18:20:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x4960f2…
05-04 00:07:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x247993…
05-01 21:16:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0xa93888…
05-01 21:14:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x1ff66f…
05-01 21:14:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xfddd7c…
05-01 21:14:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xd546c3…
04-30 11:35:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x28600f…
04-30 11:35:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0xabfb9d…
04-29 21:03:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xae0c0d…
04-29 20:57:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x34c625…
04-29 01:13:20	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x80ddee…
04-29 01:11:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x8e72e9…
04-27 01:16:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$2	0x4340d3…
04-23 21:12:06	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	35	93¢	$32	0x026817…
04-23 04:42:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x41a3fc…
04-23 00:53:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xc20fce…
04-22 15:35:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x228aa4…
04-13 11:39:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x30a7b4…
04-12 22:27:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	Yes	SELL	30	38¢	$11	0x893ca6…
04-12 16:52:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xdf4898…
04-12 16:45:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xa93a84…
04-12 16:44:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0xd78427…
04-12 16:44:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0xa447d6…
04-12 16:38:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0x64c714…
04-12 16:35:15	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0xb039a7…
04-12 16:32:53	Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xdda999…
03-18 15:11:33	us strikes yemen by march 31 2026	No	SELL	17	86¢	$14	0xcb82fa…
02-15 03:47:05	bitcoin above 68k on february 15	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x5af974…
02-13 17:42:51	bitcoin above 70k on february 14	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x26bcff…
02-13 16:45:45	bitcoin above 70k on february 14	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x5b9e89…
02-13 12:19:07	bitcoin above 64k on february 15	No	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0x888181…
02-13 12:18:33	bitcoin above 64k on february 15	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x8c779d…
02-13 12:17:41	bitcoin above 72k on february 15	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x7dbfbf…
02-13 12:17:31	bitcoin above 70k on february 15	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x7ad896…
02-13 12:17:13	bitcoin above 66k on february 15	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x63d529…
02-12 23:40:27	us strikes iran by february 12 2026 525	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x346b39…
02-12 16:45:33	bitcoin above 66k on february 12	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xa90be8…
02-12 14:52:51	bitcoin above 70k on february 13	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x6ece9a…
02-12 14:52:51	bitcoin above 70k on february 13	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x50c51f…
02-12 14:52:31	bitcoin above 68k on february 13	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xa94524…
02-12 14:20:51	bitcoin above 70k on february 12	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x4037a3…
02-12 14:19:57	bitcoin above 66k on february 13	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x4c3838…
02-12 14:02:05	bitcoin above 68k on february 12	Yes	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0xf7b684…
02-12 14:00:59	bitcoin above 70k on february 13	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x0b4084…
02-12 13:48:01	bitcoin above 68k on february 12	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x712be1…
02-12 13:43:39	bitcoin above 72k on february 13	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xa86a2b…
02-12 13:24:27	bitcoin above 72k on february 13	Yes	SELL	36	3¢	$1	0x13b45c…
02-12 13:01:33	bitcoin above 66k on february 12	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xb52dc7…
02-12 13:01:33	bitcoin above 66k on february 12	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xb52dc7…
02-12 11:44:11	will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	No	SELL	79	57¢	$45	0x84b2f0…
02-12 11:43:49	will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	No	SELL	12	57¢	$7	0xe6412c…
02-12 11:42:05	will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	No	BUY	91	57¢	$53	0xab52c1…
02-12 01:37:01	bitcoin above 72k on february 13	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0x31d16d…
02-11 23:10:37	bitcoin above 64k on february 12	Yes	BUY	9	93¢	$9	0x2721f7…
02-11 22:48:41	bitcoin above 66k on february 12	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xd1395f…
02-11 22:29:47	will a new country join the abraham accords by march 31	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xcdbb7b…
02-11 17:19:55	us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xa61784…
02-11 17:16:27	bitcoin above 68k on february 13	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xe448e2…
02-11 17:11:17	bitcoin above 64k on february 14	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x2c7ad9…
02-11 17:06:53	bitcoin above 66k on february 14	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x1bc2d9…
02-11 16:55:41	bitcoin above 68k on february 14	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x3937fc…
02-11 16:47:47	bitcoin above 72k on february 13	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xa39c4a…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	236	$44.7K	9,379	06-08 18:20
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	226	$33.0M	56,987	06-10 03:59
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	224	$1.43M	27,166	06-10 03:38
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	223	$411.3K	54,812	06-09 22:06
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	213	$51.9K	18,650	06-10 03:07
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	207	$457.4K	41,170	05-31 20:57
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	198	$235.3K	21,310	03-29 22:50
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	196	$54.6K	16,698	04-16 14:35