Quixotic-Significance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

60.5%

Resolved

380

Trades

1,202

lifetime

Volume

$17.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$291

20 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-23 22:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 118 days

Categories

Other

52% 49% +$86

Politics

42% 65% -$102

Crypto

3% 49% -$78

Pop-Culture

2% 50% -$1

Tech

0% 62% -$5

Sports

0% 75% +$97

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions (20) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	+50	$42	98¢	$49	+$7	10-18 18:11
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	+30	$23	92¢	$28	+$5	10-18 18:08
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696	No	+26	$13	97¢	$25	+$12	08-19 02:47
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	-20	-$19	94¢	$-19	$0	10-20 11:04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	+32	$15	57¢	$18	+$3	10-19 08:57
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+38	$15	48¢	$18	+$3	10-19 08:57
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-20	-$12	86¢	$-17	-$5	05-05 01:15
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+50	$28	34¢	$17	-$11	07-16 10:33
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	-20	-$11	82¢	$-16	-$5	10-04 21:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+27	$15	62¢	$16	+$1	10-19 08:57
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	+16	$13	76¢	$12	-$1	10-19 10:39
will ohio enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	Yes	+50	$22	24¢	$12	-$10	09-30 10:10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-12	-$10	94¢	$-11	-$1	05-19 04:55
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	-10	-$8	97¢	$-10	-$1	05-19 12:02
Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	-10	-$8	86¢	$-9	-$1	05-18 13:44
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+20	$6	38¢	$8	+$1	08-10 20:15
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	+16	$8	18¢	$3	-$5	05-18 17:31
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	-10	-$3	18¢	$-2	+$1	09-29 11:16
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-24	-$12	4¢	$-1	+$11	05-16 16:11
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	+1	-$4	96¢	$1	+$4	08-12 12:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	23	$844	636	636	+0	Yes	-$18	02-01 13:16
maduro mugshot released by monday	49	$774	357	1,242	-885	No	+$4	01-04 18:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	8	$563	300	300	+0	Yes	+$9	09-29 15:16
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	18	$558	1,102	1,102	+0	Yes	+$2	09-29 17:47
cilia flores released from custody by january 31 2026	29	$359	303	870	-567	No	-$7	01-04 13:32
spx up or down on february 2 2026	7	$349	200	200	+0	Up	+$9	02-02 16:28
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	44	$317	426	226	+200	No	+$9	09-30 15:29
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	25	$316	293	282	+11	No	+$10	01-17 02:18
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	4	$278	301	514	-213	No	+$55	02-02 19:07
will silver si hit low 75 by end of february 739 471 473 237 171 573 124 784	22	$267	445	445	+0	Yes	-$8	01-31 16:06
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 90 114	4	$260	186	186	+0	No	-$4	02-02 10:48
us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918	3	$260	200	200	+0	open	—	09-28 17:35
will golden ejae and mark sonnenblick win song of the year at the 68th annual grammy awards	11	$249	159	159	+0	No	+$1	02-01 15:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	6	$223	131	117	+14	Yes	-$10	06-08 20:29
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	7	$216	150	250	-100	No	+$32	02-04 14:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	7	$215	220	120	+100	Yes	-$58	07-21 17:26
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	9	$209	109	109	+0	No	+$6	01-31 00:06
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 360 379	16	$199	255	255	+0	No	$0	02-02 11:16
will silver si hit high 130 by end of february 915 491 526 914 543 364	13	$195	450	300	+150	No	-$11	01-31 15:17
will epstein data set 13 be released by february 28	3	$186	209	209	+0	No	-$27	02-02 14:05
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	9	$183	118	82	+36	No	+$4	01-31 17:03
odds of gov shutdown over 90 on friday night	8	$180	262	262	+0	Yes	-$1	01-30 23:36
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	4	$154	90	110	-20	open	—	10-04 21:32
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 24 20260718000915874	2	$151	100	100	+0	No	+$3	07-20 16:12
will deb tirar ms fotos bad bunny win album of the year at the 68th annual grammy awards	2	$147	100	100	+0	Yes	+$14	02-02 01:40
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$131	113	113	+0	Yes	-$9	06-08 17:23
elon musk 48h tweets january 5 january 7 140plus	13	$127	81	120	-39	Yes	+$16	01-07 14:09
trump renames ai by september 30	6	$116	200	121	+79	Yes	-$36	09-29 15:55
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$116	100	100	+0	No	$0	09-28 20:27
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	2	$114	100	100	+0	No	+$0	02-01 15:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 22:33:23	Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	39	26¢	$10	0x412598…
10-20 11:04:29	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0xc4c714…
10-20 08:16:41	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0x789403…
10-20 08:16:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x9437f4…
10-19 14:43:54	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x908bf0…
10-19 10:39:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	79¢	$13	0x1c64d0…
10-19 08:57:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x0588ea…
10-19 08:57:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0xb9afde…
10-19 08:57:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	38	40¢	$15	0xef3be1…
10-18 20:55:23	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	80	40¢	$32	0x2e2082…
10-18 20:55:06	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0x57df4b…
10-18 18:11:29	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0x4b0d88…
10-18 18:08:54	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0xd3a06b…
10-18 18:01:14	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0xd67d77…
10-18 18:00:57	France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xe7f9b1…
10-17 19:03:17	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	80	49¢	$39	0x7bf045…
10-04 21:32:40	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	110	75¢	$82	0xce910a…
10-04 01:29:34	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	80¢	$21	0x1a6b50…
10-04 01:26:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	52¢	$21	0x2955af…
10-03 19:55:16	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	54	80¢	$43	0x93ff62…
10-03 13:09:27	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x12c8d0…
10-02 16:45:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on October 2?	Yes	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0xc7f679…
10-02 16:23:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on October 2?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x10ee5c…
10-02 12:36:30	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on October 2?	Yes	BUY	40	61¢	$24	0x55c265…
10-01 18:12:51	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	60	72¢	$43	0x97de80…
10-01 17:43:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0x36fc0b…
10-01 17:27:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xdc447f…
10-01 16:24:21	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	36¢	$14	0xb92b4f…
09-30 17:31:42	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	8¢	$12	0x6be863…
09-30 16:57:00	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xfc6958…
09-30 16:40:29	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on September 30?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x81b9c6…
09-30 16:07:06	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x4ad23f…
09-30 15:29:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	38	46¢	$17	0x5eb9e7…
09-30 15:29:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	5	46¢	$3	0x4257c1…
09-30 15:07:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	10	46¢	$4	0x9ab7c1…
09-30 15:05:53	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	15	46¢	$7	0xec2a6e…
09-30 15:04:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0x76a073…
09-30 14:26:41	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0x1139a9…
09-30 14:23:27	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0xfd5ad6…
09-30 14:20:15	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0xfd3966…
09-30 14:07:35	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	13	43¢	$6	0x4b380c…
09-30 14:07:33	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x7c9ebd…
09-30 14:07:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xc138b7…
09-30 13:04:21	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	SELL	6	43¢	$3	0x0d7449…
09-30 13:03:06	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xbb61f7…
09-30 10:10:27	will ohio enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0xf83027…
09-30 10:02:53	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	SELL	42	56¢	$23	0x66558b…
09-30 10:02:53	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x66558b…
09-30 08:58:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	SELL	53	56¢	$30	0x1bf1d2…
09-30 08:53:59	wti up or down on september 30 2026	Up	SELL	40	62¢	$25	0x739236…
09-30 08:43:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x4e0d4d…
09-30 08:40:51	wti up or down on september 30 2026	Up	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x3b05c1…
09-30 08:34:45	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x4e96ca…
09-30 08:34:27	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x165d41…
09-30 08:34:20	wti up or down on september 30 2026	Up	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x40434e…
09-30 08:34:11	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x75480b…
09-30 08:34:11	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0x2c3439…
09-30 08:34:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xe1edd7…
09-30 08:34:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	36	54¢	$19	0xe03cc8…
09-30 08:34:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xcaabd2…
09-30 08:34:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x9758c8…
09-30 08:34:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x4b1aad…
09-30 08:34:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x44598c…
09-30 08:34:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x14f04a…
09-30 08:15:24	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	BUY	1	42¢	$0	0x2c137a…
09-30 08:05:15	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0x85d3ae…
09-30 08:03:02	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x2039d2…
09-30 08:02:56	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xe7b8f6…
09-30 08:02:56	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xd102d0…
09-30 08:02:56	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xae4f6b…
09-30 08:02:54	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x802141…
09-30 08:02:38	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xf1aff9…
09-30 08:02:38	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x80dce4…
09-30 08:02:38	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 30?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x7f2e5c…
09-30 08:02:38	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x429884…
09-30 08:02:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0xf30166…
09-30 08:02:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0xce407d…
09-30 08:02:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x93cb2a…
09-30 08:02:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x44d231…
09-30 08:02:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x03cd39…
09-30 08:02:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x02f589…
09-29 20:29:54	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x05f5e7…
09-29 18:54:53	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xbabd8e…
09-29 17:47:15	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	26¢	$0	0x8c97e3…
09-29 17:46:48	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	208	26¢	$55	0xccb138…
09-29 17:46:14	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	181	26¢	$48	0xfeed0d…
09-29 17:04:51	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	190	26¢	$50	0x9a6460…
09-29 16:57:47	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	112	27¢	$30	0x194ce7…
09-29 16:40:14	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x20f898…
09-29 16:40:00	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	26¢	$13	0x845ae8…
09-29 16:33:09	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	26¢	$5	0x6463b5…
09-29 16:32:42	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	26¢	$9	0xa691ae…
09-29 15:55:30	trump renames ai by september 30	No	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0x8c8009…
09-29 15:47:11	trump renames ai by september 30	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x4c3928…
09-29 15:46:56	trump renames ai by september 30	No	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0x6683bb…
09-29 15:46:48	trump renames ai by september 30	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x1a24cc…
09-29 15:45:27	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	198	38¢	$75	0x82964a…
09-29 15:42:41	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0xc18011…
09-29 15:24:41	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	400	24¢	$96	0x260777…
09-29 15:19:29	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x044fc7…