Instructive-Emotion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

55.9%

Resolved

165

Trades

324

lifetime

Volume

$404

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-09

last 08-08 19:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 51% -$5

Politics

6% 29% +$6

Sports

2% 100% +$10

Other

2% 0% -$7

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+61	$5	2¢	$1	-$4	05-25 20:04
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes		-30	-$1	0¢	$-0	+$1	05-07 22:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	6	$13	28	11	+17	Down	+$5	05-01 14:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	6	$12	12	12	+0	Up	+$2	05-07 22:58
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	2	$11	52	0	+52	Yes	-$11	04-09 20:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	5	$9	9	5	+4	Up	+$1	05-01 13:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	6	$8	8	8	+0	Up	+$0	05-01 15:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	8	$8	16	15	+1	Up	$0	05-07 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	5	$8	7	7	+0	Down	+$2	05-01 16:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	5	$7	7	7	+0	Up	+$1	05-01 15:19
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$7	0	359	-359	No	+$7	06-29 08:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	5	$7	7	7	+0	Up	+$1	05-01 16:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	6	$6	40	1	+38	Down	-$4	05-01 15:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	4	$6	16	3	+13	Up	+$0	05-01 17:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	5	$6	141	3	+138	Up	-$2	05-01 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	5	$6	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	05-01 13:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	6	$6	13	8	+5	Up	+$1	05-07 23:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	6	$6	12	1	+11	Up	-$1	05-01 14:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	3	$5	7	2	+5	Up	+$2	05-01 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	4	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	05-01 16:08
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	1	$5	77	0	+77	Yes	-$5	04-12 18:59
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	1	$5	61	0	+61	open	—	05-25 20:04
will wti reach 95 in july 2026	1	$5	24	0	+24	No	-$5	07-21 22:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	+$4	05-01 11:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	5	$5	11	0	+11	Down	+$1	05-01 14:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	4	$5	8	2	+6	Up	-$1	05-01 14:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	2	$5	6	6	+0	Down	+$3	05-01 17:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	2	$4	8	8	+0	Down	+$0	05-01 17:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	3	$4	67	17	+50	Down	+$0	05-01 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	4	$4	11	0	+11	Up	+$2	05-01 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	4	$4	8	0	+8	Down	$0	05-07 23:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	3	$4	7	0	+7	Up	+$0	05-07 22:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 19:23:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xf6d16d…
08-08 19:23:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd3abc4…
07-31 14:45:08	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xcee1bd…
07-31 11:00:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x0e8358…
07-31 10:55:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 10:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xf3ba70…
07-31 10:45:12	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xe9a278…
07-31 10:30:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2823b0…
07-31 10:30:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe7adda…
07-31 10:30:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x83f5e3…
07-31 08:15:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x7ce948…
07-31 08:15:08	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x39c046…
07-31 07:55:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 07:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x42cdeb…
07-31 07:45:08	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9b94aa…
07-31 07:45:05	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8dcaf6…
07-31 05:45:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xd4d15f…
07-31 05:45:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf3a28a…
07-31 05:15:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xa4c8b5…
07-31 03:45:08	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb31201…
07-31 03:30:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-31 03:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa1b83a…
07-31 03:05:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xd9f3fd…
07-31 03:05:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x3ce6be…
07-31 03:00:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x0fe9ca…
07-31 02:40:08	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 02:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xae9e85…
07-30 22:45:08	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x85d76b…
07-30 13:30:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xc7e2c5…
07-30 13:00:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe9943e…
07-30 12:25:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 12:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x35feae…
07-30 12:05:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 12:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x240098…
07-30 12:00:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x6e258b…
07-30 11:55:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 11:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf86b36…
07-29 21:30:08	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xeda8ed…
07-29 21:30:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa5163f…
07-29 21:25:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 21:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x1428e6…
07-29 21:20:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 21:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x41f92f…
07-29 21:20:05	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 21:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9c070a…
07-29 21:15:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 21:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xdbba39…
07-29 21:10:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xf5b802…
07-29 21:10:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x47ccfb…
07-29 21:05:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xb42aa2…
07-29 21:05:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x16a2ec…
07-29 17:05:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 17:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8518ab…
07-29 16:50:08	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 16:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5ed9dc…
07-29 16:45:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x3b8d94…
07-29 16:45:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa4ecdd…
07-29 16:45:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa66a13…
07-29 16:45:08	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x7afea8…
07-29 16:20:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 16:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6ed421…
07-29 16:15:05	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x911bed…
07-29 15:55:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 15:55 UTC	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x0f24f5…
07-29 11:15:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-29 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6259b2…
07-23 08:00:52	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	Yes	BUY	42	5¢	$2	0xec1ebf…
07-21 22:34:27	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x7ecc83…
06-29 08:26:07	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	359	2¢	$7	0x822827…
05-25 20:04:19	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0x413694…
05-15 11:28:43	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x06dc1f…
05-07 23:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4b7416…
05-07 23:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x085eb3…
05-07 23:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb7930b…
05-07 23:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x2f59ac…
05-07 23:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe05608…
05-07 23:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xe56547…
05-07 23:06:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x81d73e…
05-07 23:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0xb4df83…
05-07 23:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x85f65a…
05-07 23:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x07b23d…
05-07 23:01:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x59027f…
05-07 23:01:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x93bff1…
05-07 23:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x296bc8…
05-07 22:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	68¢	$4	0xca8c6a…
05-07 22:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0x9c6368…
05-07 22:57:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x859184…
05-07 22:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x569fd0…
05-07 22:56:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x9a5d29…
05-07 22:55:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x9cd981…
05-07 22:54:41	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x432e10…
05-07 22:54:15	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	35	8¢	$3	0x045871…
05-07 22:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x0ebc7b…
05-07 22:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x62e1f4…
05-07 22:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x704d31…
05-07 22:37:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xb903a8…
05-07 22:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x76b340…
05-07 22:22:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xb8a4bd…
05-07 22:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x95c618…
05-07 22:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x8d0dfe…
05-07 22:20:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0xba5380…
05-07 22:20:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x803bfb…
05-07 22:20:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x7cc6b2…
05-07 22:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x41014a…
05-07 22:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa22953…
05-07 22:15:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x08e204…
05-07 22:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x08a4bc…
05-07 22:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa7c818…
05-07 22:10:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7ae68e…
05-07 22:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x8d683d…
05-07 13:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x423fde…
05-07 13:37:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0x718c3d…
05-07 13:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x82399d…
05-06 06:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3f331e…
05-05 17:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x0725e8…
05-05 17:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6aacca…