Far-Off-Hose — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$230

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

54.4%

Resolved

615

Trades

1,672

lifetime

Volume

$6.59K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 06:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 181 days

Categories

Other

70% 53% -$206

Crypto

13% 51% -$24

Sports

6% 44% -$4

Tech

6% 65% +$14

Politics

5% 47% -$11

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 62 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	+17	$2	24¢	$4	+$2	10-29 14:07
next astra model 6pt1 released by october 31 2026	No	+3	$1	100¢	$3	+$2	10-14 17:29
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+3	$2	52¢	$2	$0	10-29 14:08
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+9	$2	3¢	$0	-$1	10-22 13:32
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+5	$2	2¢	$0	-$2	09-29 12:09
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	+6	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	09-25 17:40
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+3	$2	1¢	$0	-$2	10-28 12:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	12	$392	243	243	+0	Yes	+$4	04-03 08:30
will mrbeast hit 475 million subscribers by march 31 387 656 755 785	16	$316	185	186	-1	No	+$51	03-31 07:08
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	6	$146	117	117	+0	No	-$3	03-17 06:49
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	11	$120	437	456	-18	No	-$85	04-05 16:10
will mrbeast hit 480 million subscribers by march 31 385 949 751 549 325 327 411 863 793	10	$114	249	249	+0	No	-$54	02-08 12:17
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?	15	$113	391	390	+0	No	-$94	04-05 13:12
Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1?	8	$111	459	459	+0	No	-$100	04-05 13:12
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	10	$105	95	105	-10	No	$0	03-12 11:44
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	15	$103	89	89	+0	open	—	10-24 06:45
epl lee ars 2026 01 31 btts	6	$88	78	78	+0	No	$0	01-31 15:49
will american express axp q3 total revenue net of interest expense be above 20261008120034000 19pt75b	6	$84	59	59	+0	Yes	+$10	10-13 22:36
will mrbeast hit 474 million subscribers by march 31 977 964	13	$83	70	70	+0	Yes	+$9	03-25 12:53
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $6.5B?	7	$71	43	43	+0	No	+$7	10-23 05:04
Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April 30?	9	$65	112	130	-18	Yes	+$0	03-25 18:28
will corning glw q3 optical communications sales be above 20261008120040000 2pt1b	9	$64	48	48	+0	Yes	+$12	10-14 11:24
will booking bkng q3 gross bookings be above 20261008120126000 51b	8	$56	39	37	+2	open	—	10-23 07:23
Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?	7	$55	45	45	+0	Yes	-$6	03-31 18:42
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$52	39	39	+0	No	+$7	03-05 07:39
Muse Charm released by December 31, 2026?	6	$50	45	45	+0	open	—	10-07 19:55
will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	3	$48	34	34	+0	Yes	-$2	02-14 19:37
efa man2 ars 2026 03 07 ars	2	$46	29	23	+7	Yes	+$1	03-07 13:48
will mrbeast hit 116 billion views by march 31	7	$43	41	41	+0	Yes	-$1	03-26 20:49
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 113	16	$40	1,043	1,043	+0	No	-$3	02-04 01:06
will grok 4pt20 not be released by february 14 2026	4	$39	64	63	+0	Yes	-$1	02-09 10:13
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$38	30	30	+0	Yes	+$8	02-05 18:53
will mrbeasts next video get 90 million or more views on week 1 212	3	$36	24	24	+0	No	-$4	03-22 17:12
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$34	23	23	+0	Yes	+$4	01-20 09:14
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?	5	$34	28	28	+0	open	—	08-29 06:15
Will MrBeast hit 478 million subscribers by April 30?	3	$33	25	25	+0	Yes	-$1	03-25 13:00
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	4	$33	24	24	+0	No	+$1	03-01 11:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 06:30:21	Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc07252…
10-31 06:22:03	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x75c368…
10-30 18:54:00	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 105m?	Yes	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x23c5b9…
10-30 17:52:13	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xc101d7…
10-30 15:57:12	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xace117…
10-30 15:54:52	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x364687…
10-30 15:52:19	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x0f6b2a…
10-30 15:49:37	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd9d411…
10-30 15:48:43	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xdf6953…
10-30 15:39:42	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x190f83…
10-30 14:48:10	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xf9f5b7…
10-30 14:42:40	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xab5ba2…
10-30 14:41:57	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xddae8b…
10-30 04:33:37	Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 15?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xfd36ee…
10-30 04:26:16	Dota 2 patch 7.42 released by November 30?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x4deea2…
10-29 19:53:19	Will Trump say "Golden Age" in November?	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x16748a…
10-29 15:10:14	Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x3631cd…
10-29 14:37:52	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 5.5 million?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xd67519…
10-29 14:31:34	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x27c948…
10-29 14:21:20	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x6c53d1…
10-29 14:08:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x05c404…
10-29 14:07:52	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x409fdf…
10-29 13:52:35	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x913e9b…
10-29 13:26:49	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 105m?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xdf290d…
10-29 13:21:10	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x59436e…
10-29 12:37:02	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 5.5 million?	No	SELL	8	31¢	$3	0x88de59…
10-29 10:36:37	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 5.5 million?	No	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0xe70963…
10-29 04:14:20	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $7.5B?	No	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0x5f0440…
10-28 20:00:04	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) Q3 total service revenues be above $19.1B?	Yes	SELL	14	89¢	$13	0x7b619b…
10-28 18:50:59	over 20m committed to the over computer public sale	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa1fdd1…
10-28 18:50:29	Over $7.5M committed to the over.computer public sale?	No	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xf6e3e0…
10-28 18:38:40	over 20m committed to the over computer public sale	No	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x335f84…
10-28 18:38:28	over 40m committed to the over computer public sale	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xd00008…
10-28 18:30:56	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x2ac523…
10-28 18:26:46	Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 28m?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x5631eb…
10-28 18:20:25	Over $7.5M committed to the over.computer public sale?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x3ce9ad…
10-28 18:09:07	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x22830f…
10-28 17:57:35	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x57a761…
10-28 17:56:44	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	3	45¢	$2	0x740944…
10-28 16:46:35	1win FDV above $45M one day after launch?	No	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0xd29f13…
10-28 12:11:32	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x78afbf…
10-28 12:05:28	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xd2cb7a…
10-27 17:13:29	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6.5 million?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0xb7ff29…
10-27 17:11:47	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 5.5 million?	No	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x5d80ce…
10-27 16:39:51	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 5.5 million?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xa44d07…
10-27 08:41:45	Will Oxford's 2026 Word of the Year contain "slop"?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd1d5ce…
10-27 08:08:30	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6.25 million?	No	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xc16311…
10-27 08:08:15	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6.5 million?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x288c16…
10-27 01:13:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x36f4c1…
10-26 20:01:15	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x644cee…
10-26 19:39:56	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x9a22fc…
10-26 19:00:47	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x422868…
10-26 19:00:11	Will Vance peak at Category 1 or weaker?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa02ef6…
10-26 18:29:24	Dota 2 patch 7.42 released by November 30?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x3a18f0…
10-26 16:49:09	Dota 2 patch 7.42 released by November 30?	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe23ea9…
10-26 05:55:20	Will Linde (LIN) Q3 sales be above $9.05B?	Yes	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0xa355ab…
10-24 18:47:26	Dota 2 patch 7.42 released by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x073d97…
10-24 09:13:00	Will Hyatt Hotels (H) Q3 system-wide hotels RevPAR be above $154?	Yes	SELL	57	35¢	$20	0xc51b1b…
10-24 06:45:26	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	86¢	$10	0x5ab784…
10-24 04:06:51	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x383f33…
10-23 17:02:45	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xd7a083…
10-23 15:24:35	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x1a0aaa…
10-23 15:21:32	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x320124…
10-23 15:11:00	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x758752…
10-23 14:37:12	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x3a2f86…
10-23 07:23:15	Will Booking (BKNG) Q3 gross bookings be above $51B?	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x358106…
10-23 07:14:38	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb0a9bd…
10-23 06:15:26	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	72¢	$27	0xe7b6f1…
10-23 06:15:26	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	72¢	$14	0xd6a0f4…
10-23 06:15:26	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0xc3c180…
10-23 05:04:39	Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $6.5B?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xd2f72e…
10-22 19:02:17	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	Yes	SELL	21	14¢	$3	0x076a2a…
10-22 18:47:57	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xca7ae6…
10-22 17:00:02	Will Vance peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x46f2af…
10-22 16:58:12	1win FDV above $45M one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x1f13f7…
10-22 16:36:00	will vance peak at category 1 or weaker	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x03393c…
10-22 16:22:03	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 25?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x42944a…
10-22 15:37:03	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$1	0x4faaf1…
10-22 15:27:29	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 23?	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$1	0xd4c07b…
10-22 14:36:17	Will Dell Q3 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $36.5B?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x64cfb9…
10-22 13:54:42	Dota 2 patch 7.42 released by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x901641…
10-22 13:41:48	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xbc1b39…
10-22 13:41:29	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x2ac600…
10-22 13:36:54	Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.8B?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x8fd30d…
10-22 13:32:14	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	17¢	$2	0x4e3d18…
10-22 13:23:09	Will Hyatt Hotels (H) Q3 system-wide hotels RevPAR be above $146?	Yes	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0xa90b28…
10-22 12:33:42	Will Dota 2 average more Steam players in November than in October?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x95be6f…
10-22 08:33:32	Will Jynxzi beat the Elden Ring DLC by October 24?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x9133ae…
10-21 01:10:05	Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $6.5B?	No	SELL	17	88¢	$15	0xcd3f7f…
10-20 12:30:14	Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x546240…
10-20 12:20:12	Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x20484c…
10-20 10:20:57	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0xeba952…
10-20 10:20:41	Spotify Monthly Active Users above 800M in Q3?	No	SELL	3	88¢	$2	0xc10f14…
10-20 10:20:30	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	Yes	SELL	4	61¢	$2	0xd27c74…
10-20 10:20:24	Will "Hoppers" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	7	21¢	$1	0x98a577…
10-20 10:20:14	Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.45B?	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x6c053d…
10-20 10:17:41	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x36f907…
10-20 09:39:06	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0x84ddd3…
10-20 09:32:38	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x476d8b…
10-20 09:31:26	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0xe5ca08…