Obvious-Deduction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.17K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.6%

Resolved

Trades

245

lifetime

Volume

$153.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$625

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 06-15 09:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Politics

79% 58% -$7,298

Other

15% 62% +$1,140

Sports

4% 31% -$74

Tech

1% 100% +$79

Crypto

1% 67% -$22

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-15).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	16	$17.1K	9,750	9,750	+0	Yes	+$1,610	06-09 08:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	14	$15.4K	27,808	2,216	+25,592	Yes	-$11,571	06-15 09:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	11	$12.1K	7,487	7,487	+0	No	+$497	06-01 09:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$12.1K	7,052	7,052	+0	No	+$1,112	05-31 06:48
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$7.2K	4,590	4,590	+0	No	+$1,431	05-27 13:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	7	$7.0K	4,173	4,173	+0	No	+$645	05-13 10:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	5	$6.1K	4,167	4,167	+0	No	-$174	05-19 14:35
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$5.8K	3,404	3,404	+0	No	+$419	06-13 17:24
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	5	$4.5K	2,541	2,541	+0	No	+$132	06-12 18:48
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	8	$3.7K	2,381	2,381	+0	No	+$217	06-14 21:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	3	$3.6K	2,003	2,003	+0	No	+$207	06-02 08:20
israel closes its airspace by june 8	4	$3.1K	1,659	1,659	+0	No	+$209	06-09 05:38
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	2	$3.0K	1,667	1,667	+0	No	-$10	06-03 07:22
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	3	$2.9K	1,679	1,679	+0	No	-$56	05-18 09:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$2.8K	2,032	2,032	+0	Yes	-$284	06-12 09:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$2.8K	2,375	1,164	+1,211	No	+$389	05-30 09:34
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	2	$2.5K	1,313	1,313	+0	Jannik Sinner	+$116	05-16 14:25
israel closes its airspace by june 9	4	$2.4K	1,349	1,349	+0	No	+$288	06-09 08:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$2.2K	1,250	1,250	+0	No	+$175	05-26 10:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	4	$2.2K	1,170	1,170	+0	No	+$79	05-17 11:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	3	$2.1K	1,250	1,250	+0	No	+$251	05-06 13:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	4	$2.1K	1,208	1,208	+0	No	+$86	06-11 17:51
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	4	$2.1K	1,122	1,122	+0	Yes	+$154	06-03 06:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$2.0K	1,149	1,149	+0	No	+$35	05-09 12:23
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar	3	$1.9K	1,022	1,022	+0	Jannik Sinner	+$148	04-29 16:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$1.5K	811	811	+0	No	+$94	05-05 15:18
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	4	$1.5K	906	906	+0	Yes	-$118	06-03 23:53
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	4	$1.2K	1,582	1,582	+0	Yes	-$1,202	06-01 09:45
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$1.2K	7,166	7,166	+0	No	-$24	06-14 12:43
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$1.0K	556	556	+0	Yes	+$48	04-28 13:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 09:54:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	11,276	13¢	$1,500	0xcc561f…
06-14 21:39:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,742	36¢	$620	0x5e8658…
06-14 21:37:03	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	786	79¢	$620	0x87e40c…
06-14 16:44:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	248	81¢	$200	0x1c8cfd…
06-14 12:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x39c076…
06-14 12:44:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xb925a8…
06-14 12:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x5c44de…
06-14 12:44:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 12:40 UTC	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xe29a7f…
06-14 12:43:46	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,249	7¢	$92	0xb3fad8…
06-14 12:43:45	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,177	5¢	$111	0xcc7947…
06-14 06:30:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	847	79¢	$670	0xb2f948…
06-14 06:30:24	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	786	86¢	$674	0x3d8496…
06-13 21:16:00	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,249	8¢	$105	0xf80674…
06-13 21:15:36	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,177	5¢	$111	0x8e2ff4…
06-13 21:13:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,951	73¢	$1,430	0xb07b54…
06-13 21:12:55	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	281	86¢	$242	0x71c22d…
06-13 21:12:48	Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	342	71¢	$243	0x7b1343…
06-13 21:12:36	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,976	8¢	$247	0xe7a69e…
06-13 21:12:15	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	810	85¢	$684	0xa1721e…
06-13 17:34:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	743	67¢	$500	0x92bd1e…
06-13 17:33:00	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	604	82¢	$493	0x00eb8d…
06-13 17:24:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	4,536	68¢	$3,100	0x814ad6…
06-13 17:24:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	3,404	92¢	$3,134	0xa86e73…
06-12 18:49:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,494	81¢	$1,215	0x7cf070…
06-12 18:48:39	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	1,270	96¢	$1,215	0x9aee55…
06-12 10:14:45	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	604	81¢	$490	0x2baa7f…
06-12 10:14:18	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	287	86¢	$247	0x72234a…
06-12 10:14:15	Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	291	84¢	$245	0x9e95dc…
06-12 09:47:24	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	301	91¢	$275	0xd266b8…
06-12 09:46:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,151	87¢	$1,000	0xe11f91…
06-12 09:46:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,032	63¢	$1,276	0x0f4529…
06-11 17:57:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	296	84¢	$250	0xbbeca9…
06-11 17:56:37	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	287	88¢	$253	0x41acb5…
06-11 17:55:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,308	85¢	$1,108	0x2d8cac…
06-11 17:54:19	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	1,270	87¢	$1,109	0x4853f8…
06-11 17:53:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	665	89¢	$592	0xda006e…
06-11 17:52:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	746	67¢	$500	0x66a02f…
06-11 17:51:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	1,208	90¢	$1,091	0xf6d507…
06-10 05:57:52	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	279	77¢	$215	0x65ca14…
06-10 05:57:27	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	SELL	674	31¢	$210	0x47daaf…
06-09 15:40:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	333	78¢	$260	0xf62ab0…
06-09 15:39:57	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9?	No	SELL	266	100¢	$265	0x1c3947…
06-09 15:03:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	169	92¢	$155	0xe77911…
06-09 15:03:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9?	No	SELL	281	5¢	$15	0xc7e45e…
06-09 14:43:10	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9?	No	SELL	88	63¢	$56	0xe7eefd…
06-09 12:30:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10?	No	SELL	142	59¢	$84	0xbebea3…
06-09 12:11:19	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9?	No	BUY	281	85¢	$240	0xf182a9…
06-09 12:10:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10?	No	SELL	142	60¢	$85	0xd99fec…
06-09 12:10:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9?	No	BUY	354	56¢	$200	0xd51f5e…
06-09 09:10:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10?	No	BUY	284	70¢	$200	0x6534c2…
06-09 09:08:39	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0x9e4d33…
06-09 09:05:31	Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	342	73¢	$250	0x046580…
06-09 08:55:13	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	287	87¢	$250	0x61692d…
06-09 08:55:06	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	287	87¢	$250	0x955ad3…
06-09 08:53:58	Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	291	86¢	$250	0x5ac001…
06-09 08:52:45	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	674	37¢	$250	0x076b2f…
06-09 08:49:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	2,666	99¢	$2,626	0xf287d7…
06-09 08:19:16	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	435	77¢	$336	0xe2ad8d…
06-09 08:19:00	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0xed6347…
06-09 08:18:28	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	1,349	98¢	$1,328	0x12c6f1…
06-09 05:39:21	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	2,125	80¢	$1,700	0xc3753b…
06-09 05:38:21	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	1,659	100¢	$1,655	0xc7d8d0…
06-08 20:10:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	952	84¢	$800	0xb90d73…
06-08 20:10:15	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	889	96¢	$849	0xc7f05a…
06-08 13:05:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	765	78¢	$600	0x69198f…
06-08 13:05:45	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	547	91¢	$500	0x60329a…
06-08 13:05:12	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	1,185	94¢	$1,108	0x3921b2…
06-08 11:49:27	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0xbb7834…
06-08 11:48:55	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	479	84¢	$400	0xe67bb9…
06-08 11:48:33	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	469	94¢	$440	0xd02771…
06-08 10:50:18	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	3,500	0¢	$7	0x313aa6…
06-08 10:44:54	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	426	82¢	$350	0xf176cc…
06-08 10:44:40	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	625	80¢	$500	0x3dcd39…
06-08 10:44:33	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	575	87¢	$500	0x9f170c…
06-08 10:44:16	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	65¢	$650	0x23def8…
06-08 10:43:33	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	2,127	94¢	$2,009	0x5c259f…
06-08 10:39:49	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0xe748c3…
06-08 10:39:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	613	82¢	$500	0xdf9721…
06-08 10:38:57	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	638	95¢	$603	0x997f41…
06-08 10:38:16	Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xb33841…
06-08 10:37:52	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1,250	0¢	$2	0x52fda0…
06-08 10:35:43	Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0xf8dc6a…
06-08 10:35:31	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4,353	5¢	$235	0x86a803…
06-08 10:34:54	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,976	8¢	$250	0x7e46a7…
06-08 10:34:16	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	682	73¢	$500	0xc3f4c1…
06-08 10:34:01	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	537	83¢	$446	0xb4f479…
06-08 10:28:31	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	281	89¢	$250	0x8e704f…
06-08 08:16:16	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	1,191	96¢	$1,147	0xf0ea9c…
06-07 20:42:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	585	95¢	$553	0x4338d1…
06-07 14:02:19	Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xd35a9a…
06-07 14:02:00	Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd83a97…
06-04 09:28:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,410	70¢	$987	0xa02667…
06-03 23:53:22	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	227	75¢	$170	0x659268…
06-03 23:53:01	Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	263	66¢	$174	0x335db2…
06-03 23:47:31	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,295	74¢	$959	0x9e946b…
06-03 23:47:12	Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	643	78¢	$502	0x56198d…
06-03 23:46:46	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,941	8¢	$241	0xa86373…
06-03 23:46:43	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4,456	6¢	$245	0x12a406…
06-03 07:22:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,725	86¢	$1,482	0x70e183…
06-03 07:22:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,667	89¢	$1,490	0x054cfd…