Obvious-Deduction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.5%

Resolved

Trades

175

lifetime

Volume

$129.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$741

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 06-15 09:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

83% 100% +$251

Other

13% 0% $-196

Sports

2% 67% $-14

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	15	$16.6K	9,140	9,750	-610	open	—	06-09 08:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	11	$12.1K	7,487	7,487	+0	open	—	06-01 09:46
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	11	$11.5K	21,283	2,216	+19,066	open	—	06-15 09:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$9.4K	7,052	4,324	+2,728	open	—	05-28 08:24
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$7.2K	4,590	4,590	+0	open	—	05-27 13:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	7	$7.0K	4,173	4,173	+0	open	—	05-13 10:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	5	$6.1K	4,167	4,167	+0	open	—	05-19 14:35
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$5.8K	3,404	3,404	+0	open	—	06-13 17:24
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	5	$4.5K	2,541	2,541	+0	open	—	06-12 18:48
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	8	$3.7K	2,381	2,381	+0	open	—	06-14 21:37
israel closes its airspace by june 8	4	$3.1K	1,659	1,659	+0	open	—	06-09 05:38
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	2	$3.0K	1,667	1,667	+0	open	—	06-03 07:22
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	3	$2.9K	1,679	1,679	+0	open	—	05-18 09:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	2	$2.9K	1,235	2,003	-768	open	—	06-02 08:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$2.8K	2,032	2,032	+0	open	—	06-12 09:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$2.8K	2,375	1,164	+1,211	open	—	05-30 09:34
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	2	$2.5K	1,313	1,313	+0	open	—	05-16 14:25
israel closes its airspace by june 9	4	$2.4K	1,349	1,349	+0	open	—	06-09 08:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$2.2K	1,250	1,250	+0	open	—	05-26 10:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	4	$2.2K	1,170	1,170	+0	open	—	05-17 11:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	3	$2.1K	1,250	1,250	+0	No	+$251	05-06 13:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	4	$2.1K	1,208	1,208	+0	open	—	06-11 17:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$2.0K	1,149	1,149	+0	open	—	05-09 12:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$1.5K	811	811	+0	open	—	05-05 15:18
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?	2	$1.0K	522	522	+0	open	—	04-29 14:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$1.0K	512	512	+0	open	—	04-29 14:55
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$968	877	877	+0	open	—	05-04 19:39
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar	2	$873	1,022	0	+1,022	open	—	04-29 15:30
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev	1	$850	1,012	0	+1,012	open	—	05-03 14:49
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$503	287	287	+0	open	—	06-11 17:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 09:54:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	11,276	13¢	$1,500	0xcc561f…
06-14 21:37:03	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	786	79¢	$620	0x87e40c…
06-14 12:44:21	btc updown 5m 1781440800	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xe29a7f…
06-14 06:30:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	847	79¢	$670	0xb2f948…
06-14 06:30:24	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	786	86¢	$674	0x3d8496…
06-13 21:13:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,951	73¢	$1,430	0xb07b54…
06-13 21:12:55	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	281	86¢	$242	0x71c22d…
06-13 21:12:48	Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	342	71¢	$243	0x7b1343…
06-13 21:12:15	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	810	85¢	$684	0xa1721e…
06-13 17:34:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	743	67¢	$500	0x92bd1e…
06-13 17:24:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	3,404	92¢	$3,134	0xa86e73…
06-12 18:49:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,494	81¢	$1,215	0x7cf070…
06-12 18:48:39	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	1,270	96¢	$1,215	0x9aee55…
06-12 10:14:18	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	287	86¢	$247	0x72234a…
06-12 10:14:15	Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	291	84¢	$245	0x9e95dc…
06-12 09:47:24	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	301	91¢	$275	0xd266b8…
06-12 09:46:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,151	87¢	$1,000	0xe11f91…
06-12 09:46:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,032	63¢	$1,276	0x0f4529…
06-11 17:57:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	296	84¢	$250	0xbbeca9…
06-11 17:56:37	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	287	88¢	$253	0x41acb5…
06-11 17:55:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,308	85¢	$1,108	0x2d8cac…
06-11 17:54:19	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	1,270	87¢	$1,109	0x4853f8…
06-11 17:53:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	665	89¢	$592	0xda006e…
06-11 17:52:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	746	67¢	$500	0x66a02f…
06-11 17:51:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	1,208	90¢	$1,091	0xf6d507…
06-10 05:57:52	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	279	77¢	$215	0x65ca14…
06-10 05:57:27	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	SELL	674	31¢	$210	0x47daaf…
06-09 15:40:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	333	78¢	$260	0xf62ab0…
06-09 15:03:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	169	92¢	$155	0xe77911…
06-09 09:08:39	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0x9e4d33…
06-09 09:05:31	Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	342	73¢	$250	0x046580…
06-09 08:55:13	Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	287	87¢	$250	0x61692d…
06-09 08:55:06	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	287	87¢	$250	0x955ad3…
06-09 08:53:58	Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	291	86¢	$250	0x5ac001…
06-09 08:52:45	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	674	37¢	$250	0x076b2f…
06-09 08:49:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	2,666	99¢	$2,626	0xf287d7…
06-09 08:19:16	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	435	77¢	$336	0xe2ad8d…
06-09 08:19:00	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0xed6347…
06-09 08:18:28	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	1,349	98¢	$1,328	0x12c6f1…
06-09 05:39:21	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	2,125	80¢	$1,700	0xc3753b…
06-09 05:38:21	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	1,659	100¢	$1,655	0xc7d8d0…
06-08 20:10:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	952	84¢	$800	0xb90d73…
06-08 20:10:15	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	889	96¢	$849	0xc7f05a…
06-08 13:05:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	765	78¢	$600	0x69198f…
06-08 13:05:45	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	547	91¢	$500	0x60329a…
06-08 13:05:12	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	1,185	94¢	$1,108	0x3921b2…
06-08 11:49:27	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0xbb7834…
06-08 11:48:55	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	479	84¢	$400	0xe67bb9…
06-08 11:48:33	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	469	94¢	$440	0xd02771…
06-08 10:50:18	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	3,500	0¢	$7	0x313aa6…
06-08 10:44:54	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	426	82¢	$350	0xf176cc…
06-08 10:44:40	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	625	80¢	$500	0x3dcd39…
06-08 10:44:33	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	575	87¢	$500	0x9f170c…
06-08 10:44:16	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	65¢	$650	0x23def8…
06-08 10:43:33	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	2,127	94¢	$2,009	0x5c259f…
06-08 10:39:49	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0xe748c3…
06-08 10:39:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	613	82¢	$500	0xdf9721…
06-08 10:38:57	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	638	95¢	$603	0x997f41…
06-08 10:38:16	Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xb33841…
06-08 10:37:52	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1,250	0¢	$2	0x52fda0…
06-08 10:35:43	Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0xf8dc6a…
06-08 10:34:16	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	682	73¢	$500	0xc3f4c1…
06-08 10:34:01	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	537	83¢	$446	0xb4f479…
06-08 10:28:31	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	281	89¢	$250	0x8e704f…
06-08 08:16:16	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	1,191	96¢	$1,147	0xf0ea9c…
06-07 20:42:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	585	95¢	$553	0x4338d1…
06-07 14:02:19	Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xd35a9a…
06-07 14:02:00	Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd83a97…
06-04 09:28:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,410	70¢	$987	0xa02667…
06-03 23:53:22	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	227	75¢	$170	0x659268…
06-03 23:47:31	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,295	74¢	$959	0x9e946b…
06-03 07:22:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,725	86¢	$1,482	0x70e183…
06-03 07:22:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,667	89¢	$1,490	0x054cfd…
06-03 07:20:59	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,657	84¢	$1,384	0xbb5fb0…
06-03 07:20:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,618	86¢	$1,392	0x434901…
06-03 06:36:32	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2,496	80¢	$1,995	0xe2bdb0…
06-02 10:15:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	598	86¢	$515	0x8977ae…
06-02 08:21:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2,216	85¢	$1,884	0xfc508d…
06-02 08:20:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	2,003	94¢	$1,883	0x88a188…
06-01 09:55:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,667	90¢	$1,500	0xf653fa…
06-01 09:46:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	1,309	100¢	$1,308	0xb941be…
05-30 16:31:35	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	330	76¢	$250	0x61e24e…
05-30 16:09:23	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	1,309	96¢	$1,252	0x17d325…
05-30 09:34:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,164	84¢	$978	0x78dbdd…
05-28 17:38:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,067	75¢	$800	0x88b92a…
05-28 17:38:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	873	92¢	$803	0x181fc6…
05-28 08:55:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1,235	81¢	$1,000	0x857bd0…
05-28 08:26:29	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	562	89¢	$500	0xf50b1b…
05-28 08:25:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	1,156	87¢	$1,000	0x92f995…
05-28 08:24:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,728	92¢	$2,510	0xef8475…
05-27 13:56:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,078	77¢	$830	0x847f8c…
05-27 13:55:37	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	872	95¢	$829	0x774b66…
05-27 13:14:29	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	746	67¢	$500	0x9b1216…
05-27 13:10:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	423	77¢	$326	0xddbbd1…
05-27 13:04:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	872	95¢	$827	0x3b3fbf…
05-26 10:00:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,588	74¢	$1,175	0x8b16b0…
05-26 10:00:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	1,250	94¢	$1,175	0x27cc39…
05-26 08:47:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,367	75¢	$1,775	0xefbd6c…
05-26 08:47:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	2,430	73¢	$1,769	0xb367eb…
05-25 12:16:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	3,259	82¢	$2,670	0xaae87a…