Enormous-Cesspool — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$207

Unrealized P&L

+$589

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,499

lifetime

Volume

$397.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$265

Open exposure

$17.5K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-02 21:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

49% 100% +$50

Tech

25% — —

Politics

18% 100% +$158

Crypto

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+15,338	$13,296	100¢	$15.3K	+$2,003	07-02 08:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+4,783	$2,983	26¢	$1.2K	$-1,763	06-28 08:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+1,000	$640	74¢	$745	+$105	06-28 08:46
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	+256	$237	99¢	$253	+$16	06-02 16:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	-1,900	$-233	0¢	$-5	+$228	06-16 06:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	65	$22.5K	20,700	6,262	+14,438	open	—	07-02 08:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	25	$22.5K	14,300	9,518	+4,782	open	—	05-31 13:06
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	145	$19.0K	21,571	17,323	+4,248	open	—	02-27 13:39
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	25	$16.4K	7,995	9,043	-1,048	open	—	04-22 14:43
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	98	$16.3K	17,470	0	+17,470	open	—	01-21 04:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	86	$15.7K	13,766	3,300	+10,466	open	—	04-27 21:58
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	12	$13.8K	7,200	7,200	+0	open	—	04-14 14:17
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	116	$13.8K	15,093	3,700	+11,393	open	—	02-26 12:49
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	146	$12.6K	15,037	0	+15,037	open	—	03-23 09:30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	16	$11.8K	6,136	6,136	+0	open	—	04-28 23:31
will claude 5 be released by march 15 2026	9	$10.9K	5,500	5,500	+0	open	—	03-13 22:24
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	12	$10.6K	5,347	5,347	+0	open	—	03-18 14:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	8	$7.8K	3,680	4,380	-700	open	—	05-23 04:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$7.6K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	05-01 14:54
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	9	$6.9K	3,558	3,558	+0	open	—	04-23 18:03
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	9	$6.8K	2,500	4,500	-2,000	open	—	06-21 09:26
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	9	$6.7K	3,500	3,375	+125	open	—	06-07 13:23
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	11	$6.4K	7,000	0	+7,000	open	—	06-12 04:06
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	20	$6.1K	5,550	3,300	+2,250	open	—	07-01 14:00
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	7	$5.8K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	03-04 10:15
will bitcoin dip to 45k in february 2026 429 933 793	9	$5.7K	3,204	3,204	+0	open	—	02-07 01:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	28	$5.5K	7,983	2,200	+5,783	open	—	06-28 08:46
will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	29	$5.2K	2,960	3,400	-440	open	—	03-29 06:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	11	$5.1K	3,800	2,937	+863	open	—	06-15 08:46
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	3	$4.8K	2,719	2,219	+500	open	—	02-22 01:36
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	7	$4.4K	2,248	2,248	+0	open	—	02-24 06:55
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	14	$4.3K	2,489	2,339	+150	open	—	04-19 13:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	8	$4.1K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	06-16 03:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	7	$3.9K	2,100	2,100	+0	open	—	05-15 14:09
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?	9	$3.7K	3,959	0	+3,959	open	—	06-09 06:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 01:47:37	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912	No	BUY	65	90¢	$58	0x39dac7…
07-02 21:51:14	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912	No	BUY	73	90¢	$66	0xa92c7a…
07-02 12:29:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$973	0xcc2b5c…
07-02 08:04:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2,334	100¢	$2,327	0x9e40cd…
07-01 14:00:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0x065f99…
07-01 12:44:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,500	86¢	$1,290	0xc9cf98…
06-28 20:34:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	900	90¢	$810	0x3a5243…
06-28 08:46:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,000	64¢	$640	0x08b378…
06-28 08:46:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	36¢	$360	0x08b378…
06-27 05:25:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	400	94¢	$376	0xa89d8f…
06-27 05:19:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$999	0xe7d214…
06-26 22:33:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	600	93¢	$558	0x8789c5…
06-26 22:33:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0xb7af58…
06-25 15:09:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	600	61¢	$366	0xd3f25e…
06-25 15:05:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	887	57¢	$506	0x726b88…
06-25 15:05:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x84cf49…
06-25 15:05:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	65¢	$325	0xd2689d…
06-25 15:03:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	993	53¢	$527	0xb1a5e3…
06-25 13:55:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,000	86¢	$855	0x75cc16…
06-25 13:49:17	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xdc7a08…
06-25 13:48:53	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	299	83¢	$248	0x2a3dab…
06-25 13:05:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	666	56¢	$373	0xb660e3…
06-25 12:52:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	328	88¢	$289	0xa0c871…
06-25 02:17:22	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	591	99¢	$585	0x4d592f…
06-24 18:28:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	150	68¢	$102	0xb1fe6a…
06-24 17:28:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0xcd9d6a…
06-23 16:19:49	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	6¢	$1	0x7cf211…
06-23 16:07:53	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	6¢	$6	0xf9dd77…
06-23 15:55:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,000	78¢	$780	0xe9825e…
06-23 15:46:02	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x27aded…
06-23 15:40:01	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	6¢	$12	0x667406…
06-23 15:33:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,930	0x604874…
06-23 15:31:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	582	6¢	$35	0xf623f2…
06-23 15:26:05	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	173	6¢	$10	0x28b4f8…
06-23 15:25:53	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	6¢	$3	0x288674…
06-23 15:13:08	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x2dfa9c…
06-23 15:12:50	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	8¢	$12	0x1dd3de…
06-21 20:48:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	287	75¢	$215	0x53401c…
06-21 20:48:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xca2e1b…
06-21 20:48:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xd99e1d…
06-21 20:48:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x764dba…
06-21 20:48:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	150	75¢	$112	0x4a727e…
06-21 20:48:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	335	75¢	$251	0x270d19…
06-21 09:26:08	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	2,848	99¢	$2,831	0x5c2441…
06-21 08:12:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0x14b39d…
06-20 15:02:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,200	93¢	$1,116	0x9fba73…
06-20 13:54:29	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0xccafe3…
06-20 13:47:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xca84bc…
06-20 13:47:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x094bf4…
06-20 13:42:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5e2182…
06-20 13:41:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	691	100¢	$688	0x8ee471…
06-20 13:14:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	955	71¢	$678	0x61c0f6…
06-20 13:13:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x2ad4f1…
06-20 13:05:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	34	71¢	$24	0xc9e3e5…
06-20 12:53:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	209	89¢	$186	0xd22707…
06-20 12:51:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	21	89¢	$18	0x4dbea2…
06-20 12:48:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x2ba8d4…
06-20 12:47:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x58d2ad…
06-20 12:47:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	86	89¢	$77	0x7a372b…
06-20 12:43:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x588547…
06-20 12:43:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x367852…
06-20 12:42:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x598662…
06-20 12:40:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xa170b9…
06-20 12:38:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0xb7ab3f…
06-20 12:31:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x84d2d9…
06-20 12:30:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	89¢	$10	0x7f2129…
06-20 10:11:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0x880031…
06-20 05:28:49	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	84¢	$252	0xa1797f…
06-19 22:14:32	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	600	4¢	$24	0xe978f4…
06-19 19:51:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,200	90¢	$1,080	0x0971d2…
06-19 17:49:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	800	91¢	$728	0x9a8562…
06-19 17:13:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0x44d0fb…
06-19 17:12:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	600	74¢	$444	0x8bddf6…
06-19 12:54:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	500	43¢	$215	0x95dea6…
06-19 12:19:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0x39f6ba…
06-19 09:46:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	800	91¢	$728	0x239390…
06-19 06:07:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	700	54¢	$378	0x189b6b…
06-19 01:04:16	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	600	73¢	$438	0x14f9e9…
06-18 15:42:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0xb422d4…
06-18 00:08:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	600	77¢	$462	0x855114…
06-17 18:33:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	135	55¢	$74	0x6ffd63…
06-17 18:33:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	145	55¢	$80	0x27da3e…
06-17 18:33:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	207	55¢	$114	0x8df399…
06-17 18:33:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	21	55¢	$12	0x69392f…
06-17 18:32:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	92	55¢	$51	0x1b4b99…
06-17 15:18:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0xfbc57c…
06-17 09:32:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	900	81¢	$729	0x599473…
06-16 19:48:56	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	200	58¢	$116	0x93413e…
06-16 18:20:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	251	81¢	$203	0xfa5b8a…
06-16 18:18:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	349	81¢	$283	0x0920e5…
06-16 15:18:34	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	82	46¢	$38	0x61d6b5…
06-16 15:16:26	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	100	46¢	$46	0x88f608…
06-16 15:16:16	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x4d215f…
06-16 15:16:07	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xd48dcb…
06-16 15:15:52	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x040c49…
06-16 15:12:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	305	82¢	$250	0x73e357…
06-16 15:04:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x7f2157…
06-16 15:01:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x6c6289…
06-16 14:59:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	83	82¢	$68	0xe5eb47…
06-16 14:57:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	28	82¢	$23	0x7ef509…