Unlucky-Path — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$84

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

91.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$14.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$169

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-25

last 11-01 17:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 78% -$17

Other

1% 6% -$68

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+73	$18	2¢	$2	-$16	07-05 14:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 78k january 19 25	2	$588	295	295	+0	No	-$2	01-25 19:31
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 4?	1	$556	556	0	+556	No	+$1	05-04 11:48
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	1	$548	549	0	+549	Yes	+$1	05-18 11:22
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21?	1	$548	549	0	+549	Yes	+$1	05-21 13:00
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 11-17?	1	$547	548	0	+548	No	+$1	05-17 12:02
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?	1	$546	547	0	+547	No	+$1	05-16 11:51
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$543	417	417	+0	No	-$13	03-02 21:55
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21?	1	$524	527	0	+527	No	+$3	06-21 12:59
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14?	1	$524	524	0	+524	No	+$1	06-14 14:44
bitcoin above 68k on june 6 2026	1	$522	523	0	+523	No	+$1	06-06 02:16
bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	1	$522	523	0	+523	No	+$1	06-04 10:57
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 2?	1	$521	522	0	+522	No	+$1	06-02 10:33
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3?	1	$521	522	0	+522	Yes	+$1	06-03 11:56
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 25?	1	$520	521	0	+521	No	+$1	05-25 12:01
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 25-31?	1	$520	521	0	+521	No	+$1	05-31 14:31
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 18-24?	1	$519	520	0	+520	No	+$1	05-24 17:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22?	1	$519	520	0	+520	No	+$1	05-22 14:08
will bitcoin reach 84k april 13 19	1	$503	504	0	+504	No	+$1	04-19 15:35
will solana reach 100 april 6 12	1	$503	504	0	+504	No	+$1	04-12 02:01
will solana dip to 50 march 30 april 5	1	$502	503	0	+503	No	+$1	04-05 16:24
will bitcoin reach 66k june 29 july 5 2026	1	$502	505	0	+505	No	+$3	07-05 14:46
bitcoin above 58k on june 7 2026 356 993	1	$501	502	0	+502	Yes	+$1	06-07 12:38
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 16?	1	$404	406	0	+406	No	+$2	09-16 14:28
will bitcoin dip to 56k march 2 8	1	$401	401	0	+401	No	+$0	03-08 16:32
will xrp dip to 1pt2 march 9 15	1	$399	399	0	+399	No	+$0	03-15 16:43
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 26-November 1?	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	11-01 17:53
will bitcoin reach 94k january 19 25	1	$293	293	0	+293	No	+$0	01-25 19:32
will bitcoin reach 98k january 26 1	1	$290	291	0	+291	No	+$0	01-31 14:47
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 20-26?	1	$156	156	0	+156	No	+$0	04-26 11:21
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26?	1	$154	154	0	+154	No	+$0	04-26 11:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 17:53:34	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x3907e1…
10-01 19:12:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xa0d66c…
09-16 14:28:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 16?	No	BUY	406	99¢	$404	0xb685ef…
07-05 14:46:29	will bitcoin reach 66k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	505	99¢	$502	0x693e71…
07-05 14:42:37	Will Rabby launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x0abb61…
07-05 14:40:40	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	25¢	$18	0x13e659…
07-05 14:34:49	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	3¢	$2	0xbeace8…
07-05 13:57:41	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x1fc8b1…
06-21 12:59:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21?	No	BUY	527	99¢	$524	0x322067…
06-14 14:44:46	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14?	No	BUY	524	100¢	$524	0x5c1920…
06-07 12:38:18	bitcoin above 58k on june 7 2026 356 993	Yes	BUY	502	100¢	$501	0xe7bc5a…
06-07 12:36:58	will solana reach 90 june 1 7 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x9b6ee9…
06-06 02:16:22	bitcoin above 68k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	523	100¢	$522	0x0a68df…
06-04 10:57:09	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	523	100¢	$522	0xdd59e2…
06-03 11:56:07	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	522	100¢	$521	0x6eb10b…
06-02 10:33:07	Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 2?	No	BUY	522	100¢	$521	0xdcbeca…
05-31 14:31:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 25-31?	No	BUY	521	100¢	$520	0xe9603c…
05-25 12:01:24	Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 25?	No	BUY	521	100¢	$520	0xe7d619…
05-24 17:57:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	520	100¢	$519	0xb0dbe3…
05-22 14:08:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	520	100¢	$519	0x848f54…
05-22 14:06:11	Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?	Yes	BUY	110	7¢	$8	0x325d95…
05-22 13:58:52	Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0x6cb0ef…
05-22 13:44:43	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	152	1¢	$2	0x35abc1…
05-22 13:41:47	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	152	2¢	$2	0xc7450b…
05-22 13:39:27	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	153	11¢	$16	0x31d880…
05-21 13:00:10	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	549	100¢	$548	0xc30b4f…
05-18 11:22:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	549	100¢	$548	0x30afba…
05-17 12:02:16	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 11-17?	No	BUY	548	100¢	$547	0x8153b8…
05-16 11:51:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	547	100¢	$546	0x47833b…
05-11 16:37:32	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	152	1¢	$2	0x0cc14f…
05-11 16:36:37	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	152	1¢	$2	0xaedabe…
05-11 16:34:44	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x22bc89…
05-11 16:29:43	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	115	3¢	$4	0x3cf499…
05-04 11:48:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 4?	No	BUY	556	100¢	$556	0x9de174…
05-04 11:39:38	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x1fba0d…
04-26 11:21:18	Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 20-26?	No	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0x86dc7f…
04-26 11:12:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26?	No	BUY	154	100¢	$154	0x5f7403…
04-26 10:41:56	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	255	4¢	$10	0xe2b4ad…
04-26 10:24:46	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	151	7¢	$10	0xcf8b51…
04-26 10:11:12	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	205	1¢	$2	0x42c105…
04-26 10:09:30	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	136	4¢	$5	0xad7322…
04-26 10:09:10	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	238	1¢	$3	0x353de6…
04-26 10:08:30	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	206	2¢	$5	0x7dcea2…
04-26 10:07:58	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	550	1¢	$5	0x7c4960…
04-25 11:10:16	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	94	2¢	$2	0x446747…
04-25 11:02:58	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	506	1¢	$6	0x77dcef…
04-25 10:56:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xabe11d…
04-25 10:56:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xa3997f…
04-25 10:56:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x7af7b5…
04-25 10:56:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x42b1e6…
04-25 10:56:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x29263c…
04-25 10:56:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x0fe4ec…
04-25 10:55:04	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0xbe125e…
04-25 10:44:52	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x7a79f9…
04-25 10:40:30	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xcef738…
04-25 10:18:02	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xeb9b9e…
04-25 10:05:40	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x604d24…
04-25 09:51:56	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x51e9c8…
04-25 09:51:48	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x57926e…
04-25 09:28:34	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xb68723…
04-24 22:54:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	38	1¢	$0	0xa39125…
04-24 22:37:58	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x9f96e7…
04-24 22:10:08	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	41	23¢	$10	0x1588d3…
04-24 22:04:02	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or higher on April 25?	Yes	BUY	942	1¢	$10	0xe0790f…
04-19 15:35:00	will bitcoin reach 84k april 13 19	No	BUY	504	100¢	$503	0x7bf1f2…
04-12 02:01:03	will solana reach 100 april 6 12	No	BUY	504	100¢	$503	0x63ce60…
04-05 16:24:15	will solana dip to 50 march 30 april 5	No	BUY	503	100¢	$502	0x723ed2…
04-05 16:04:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	509	2¢	$9	0xc2fd68…
03-21 16:19:01	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	611	1¢	$8	0x263b65…
03-15 16:43:49	will xrp dip to 1pt2 march 9 15	No	BUY	399	100¢	$399	0xb6e36f…
03-15 16:37:59	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	610	0¢	$2	0x6fa5ec…
03-08 16:32:33	will bitcoin dip to 56k march 2 8	No	BUY	401	100¢	$401	0x18ad10…
03-02 22:09:27	Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	110	1¢	$1	0x11425a…
03-02 21:55:21	Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	417	63¢	$265	0x9442c8…
03-02 17:48:43	Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	417	67¢	$278	0x0bf372…
03-02 15:42:21	Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	306	1¢	$2	0x62917f…
03-02 15:30:49	Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	305	1¢	$4	0x56d130…
02-26 15:14:40	will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	Yes	BUY	301	1¢	$2	0xd85766…
02-26 15:01:00	will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	305	0¢	$1	0x2ceae3…
01-31 14:47:20	will bitcoin reach 98k january 26 1	No	BUY	291	100¢	$290	0x2afd90…
01-27 08:54:09	will solana dip to 90 in january 2026	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$3	0x58a8a6…
01-25 19:32:58	will bitcoin reach 94k january 19 25	No	BUY	293	100¢	$293	0x0d0dd5…
01-25 19:31:14	will bitcoin dip to 78k january 19 25	No	SELL	295	99¢	$293	0x67f9ac…
01-25 13:16:08	will bitcoin dip to 78k january 19 25	No	BUY	295	100¢	$295	0xd8a7f2…