Muffled-Sill — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$6

Unrealized P&L

-$40

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

1,016 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$521

$7.59K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$364

16 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 11-04 08:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Other

58% 44% +$281

Sports

29% 58% +$14

Politics

11% 50% -$343

Pop-Culture

1% 50% +$2

Crypto

0% 12% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	+100	$98	99¢	$99	+$0	11-04 08:52
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	+97	$91	97¢	$94	+$3	09-07 18:59
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	+64	$45	89¢	$57	+$13	08-07 09:02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+40	$27	91¢	$36	+$9	05-23 21:30
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	+45	$36	66¢	$30	-$6	08-28 13:42
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Yes	+154	$49	12¢	$18	-$31	10-30 07:19
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	+20	$11	49¢	$10	-$2	08-31 13:27
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	-12	-$9	68¢	$-8	+$1	06-08 18:56
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	+80	$9	4¢	$3	-$5	10-12 12:29
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	+72	$19	4¢	$3	-$16	08-06 07:10
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$5	12¢	$2	-$2	05-31 20:56
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-40	-$1	3¢	$-1	+$0	09-05 12:54
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	-15	-$1	7¢	$-1	$0	06-01 21:21
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	+20	$3	4¢	$1	-$2	05-19 01:02
Will Beyoncé be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	+330	$3	0¢	$0	-$2	05-04 21:33
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-20	-$1	1¢	$-0	+$0	06-06 15:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	37	$410	894	119	+775	No	-$276	05-16 21:32
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	11	$344	375	52	+323	Yes	+$78	05-17 15:42
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	8	$166	180	180	+0	No	-$82	05-17 15:34
Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	2	$99	100	0	+100	Yes	+$1	10-12 09:28
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	11	$98	100	0	+100	open	—	11-04 08:52
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?	2	$97	50	50	+0	open	—	10-20 14:54
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?	3	$96	130	0	+130	open	—	10-20 15:06
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	4	$91	97	0	+97	open	—	09-07 18:59
will 9 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228794	2	$90	50	50	+0	No	+$3	07-03 21:08
Megaquake by June 30?	4	$88	35	65	-30	No	-$6	05-28 18:37
will 4 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228789	3	$83	106	0	+106	Yes	+$23	07-03 20:12
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	8	$83	91	26	+65	Yes	+$1	04-22 15:53
Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	1	$83	90	0	+90	No	+$7	09-03 06:53
will ariana grande have a 1 hit in june	1	$80	80	0	+80	Yes	+$0	06-03 20:33
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	10-30 07:13
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	19	$78	70	25	+45	open	—	08-28 13:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$77	50	50	+0	No	+$23	05-11 20:04
will 8 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228793	2	$76	50	50	+0	No	-$1	06-30 08:13
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	5	$74	40	40	+0	open	—	08-06 08:18
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	13	$72	230	156	+74	Yes	+$24	04-27 18:30
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	1	$70	80	0	+80	No	+$10	09-03 06:51
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$68	128	35	+93	Yes	-$1	06-18 10:03
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	11	$61	204	50	+154	open	—	10-30 07:19
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$59	30	30	+0	Yes	+$1	06-15 09:36
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	7	$57	81	17	+64	open	—	08-07 09:02
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.2 – 8.3?	2	$55	60	0	+60	open	—	10-14 13:44
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	9	$53	60	40	+20	open	—	08-31 13:27
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$52	30	30	+0	No	-$1	06-15 11:02
Will there be 11 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	1	$51	60	0	+60	No	+$9	09-03 10:22
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	4	$51	69	0	+69	Yes	+$19	05-29 11:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 08:52:45	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe87984…
11-04 08:52:45	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe42878…
11-04 08:52:45	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xca8bab…
11-04 08:52:45	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xab4f94…
11-04 08:52:45	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9aa5fb…
11-04 08:52:45	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x904e67…
11-04 08:52:45	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8f4712…
11-04 08:52:45	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x65c38f…
11-04 08:52:45	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x39c3e2…
11-04 08:52:45	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2bd1a0…
10-30 07:50:03	Will a 8.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x097503…
10-30 07:19:46	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x00d883…
10-30 07:14:42	Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x4349eb…
10-30 07:13:46	Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xc6c0dd…
10-30 07:13:16	Will a 8.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xa89dd6…
10-25 14:23:38	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x3d813d…
10-20 15:06:15	Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?	Yes	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0xb66123…
10-20 14:56:14	Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x4ec393…
10-20 14:54:33	Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x557a7c…
10-14 13:45:51	Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.0 – 8.1?	Yes	SELL	150	11¢	$16	0xc81a64…
10-14 13:44:20	Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.2 – 8.3?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x5d51b3…
10-14 08:25:59	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	16¢	$10	0x66135c…
10-12 17:11:02	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xbf5cc0…
10-12 12:29:35	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	6¢	$5	0x85c2ed…
10-12 09:28:02	Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0x5d13c0…
10-12 09:28:01	Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	BUY	57	99¢	$56	0x1175dc…
09-09 15:18:58	Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.0 – 8.1?	Yes	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0x65f072…
09-09 15:17:13	Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x4f2e36…
09-07 20:20:57	Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	No	BUY	70	41¢	$29	0xdde501…
09-07 19:15:34	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	SELL	178	11¢	$20	0xb37cf9…
09-07 18:59:36	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xf9d507…
09-07 18:45:55	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x74bf1e…
09-07 14:56:45	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x06616a…
09-07 14:56:30	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x2b0f27…
09-07 12:04:21	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xf35625…
09-06 13:26:25	Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.2 – 8.3?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x63a16e…
09-05 21:57:45	Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x65cadf…
09-05 12:54:01	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x59d21d…
09-03 14:19:18	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xa638b0…
09-03 10:22:58	Will there be 11 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x39ad4f…
09-03 10:22:13	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x933bb6…
09-03 09:56:37	Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x4568dd…
09-03 08:55:18	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0xe7a657…
09-03 08:54:49	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xbd505e…
09-03 06:54:51	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	243	3¢	$7	0xcaf314…
09-03 06:53:40	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	90	92¢	$83	0xd2d8aa…
09-03 06:53:27	Will there be 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xfaf907…
09-03 06:53:16	Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0x7027f5…
09-03 06:51:40	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	80	87¢	$70	0x8937f4…
09-02 09:19:06	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0xdd296d…
09-01 12:37:28	Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x468dca…
09-01 06:48:06	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xbee575…
08-31 19:54:25	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xd12b41…
08-31 19:30:58	Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x1f1712…
08-31 13:45:27	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	54	94¢	$50	0xae923c…
08-31 13:45:21	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xdc86f3…
08-31 13:27:09	Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0xbfe210…
08-29 18:57:30	sweden parliamentary election orebropartiet win seats 20260825132452	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x084127…
08-29 18:57:28	sweden parliamentary election orebropartiet win seats 20260825132452	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x850eaf…
08-28 13:42:57	Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x0a2fc7…
08-28 13:42:06	Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	SELL	30	49¢	$15	0xeefb06…
08-28 12:43:55	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0xa3e66e…
08-28 12:40:33	Will there be 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x4102e6…
08-28 12:39:18	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x1854eb…
08-28 12:37:18	Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x9f3108…
08-28 12:35:16	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xe1206e…
08-26 10:58:49	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x618411…
08-19 21:14:18	sweden parliamentary election liberals win seats 20260812164320900	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x83c446…
08-07 09:02:28	Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x580865…
08-07 06:39:46	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x212875…
08-07 06:29:45	megaquake by august 31 20260729155103111	No	BUY	18	91¢	$17	0x936e45…
08-07 06:29:45	megaquake by august 31 20260729155103111	No	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x18a147…
08-06 08:18:14	Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xb1c093…
08-06 08:18:14	Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x09404a…
08-06 07:10:44	Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0xecb184…
08-06 06:51:33	Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xd05dfe…
07-15 19:13:10	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0xb6b6fb…
07-15 06:23:26	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x54fea4…
07-09 21:03:38	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	25	32¢	$8	0x1ef6a7…
07-09 21:03:20	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xf93dfb…
07-09 21:02:13	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xd7d154…
07-06 20:32:32	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	70	33¢	$23	0xfb9b6f…
07-03 21:08:53	will 9 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228794	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0xad36d2…
07-03 20:32:31	will 7 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228792	Yes	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0x3b25c2…
07-03 20:12:23	will 4 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228789	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x4bdb94…
07-03 19:50:53	will 4 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228789	Yes	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x0a5860…
07-03 07:01:37	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0x9a2a13…
07-03 06:40:37	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x1c853a…
07-03 06:31:50	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x5dae4e…
07-01 10:38:19	will 7 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228792	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x8c1340…
06-30 11:12:26	will 7 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228792	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x8b32a7…
06-30 08:58:11	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	45	38¢	$17	0x5fd0ca…
06-30 08:13:04	will 8 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228793	No	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0xe5f452…
06-29 21:05:31	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x860dc2…
06-26 19:25:59	will 9 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228794	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xf9b984…
06-26 19:20:43	will 7 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228792	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xa10bf3…
06-26 15:03:17	will 8 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228793	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xf2d6f6…
06-26 11:43:08	will 4 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228789	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x6e146e…
06-26 11:19:49	will 3 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228788	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x251f1a…
06-26 11:19:19	will 7 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228792	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x3288bb…