Expensive-Thumb — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$91

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

5 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$30.3K

$30.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$6.06K

Open exposure

$405

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-13 23:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

99% 0% $-90

Other

1% 50% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No		-400	$-392	100¢	$-400	$-7	05-09 14:13
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	No		-6	$-4	88¢	$-5	$-1	05-07 01:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	1	$29.9K	0	30,000	-30,000	No	$-90	05-06 02:29
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	1	$392	0	400	-400	open	—	05-09 14:13
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	1	$4	0	6	-6	open	—	05-07 01:33
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 11000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	1	$1	208	0	+208	No	$-1	05-13 23:04
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	1	$0	0	115	-115	No	+$0	05-06 01:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 23:04:41	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 11000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	BUY	208	1¢	$1	0xfe57f8…
05-09 14:13:05	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	SELL	400	98¢	$392	0x80a724…
05-07 01:33:13	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	70¢	$4	0x4d6868…
05-06 02:29:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	30,000	100¢	$29,910	0xbbac21…
05-06 01:39:06	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	SELL	115	0¢	$0	0x95aade…