Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

45.7%

Resolved

Trades

313

lifetime

Volume

$11.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$56

1 position

First seen

2026-03-05

last 07-12 16:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 27% $-7

Other

26% 100% +$4

Politics

15% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes		-125	$-46	45¢	$-56	$-10	06-01 13:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$857	433	433	+0	open	—	03-31 17:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$737	1,603	1,603	+0	open	—	04-01 07:28
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	5	$530	1,311	715	+597	open	—	04-10 21:54
cricipl che del 2026 04 11	4	$470	459	451	+8	open	—	04-11 16:19
will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on april 13	3	$434	2,871	0	+2,871	open	—	04-13 11:44
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14?	5	$381	692	477	+214	open	—	05-14 14:47
btc updown 5m 1775757900	2	$376	625	587	+38	open	—	04-09 18:08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$328	274	274	+0	open	—	04-20 14:18
btc updown 5m 1775170800	4	$314	700	249	+451	open	—	04-02 23:04
btc updown 5m 1775028900	2	$309	333	317	+16	open	—	04-01 07:37
btc updown 5m 1775758800	1	$307	1,035	0	+1,035	open	—	04-09 18:20
btc updown 5m 1775171700	3	$301	432	252	+180	open	—	04-02 23:18
btc updown 5m 1775168400	2	$268	263	251	+12	open	—	04-02 22:21
btc updown 5m 1775169600	2	$257	248	238	+11	open	—	04-02 22:44
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 280 299	3	$238	1,442	421	+1,021	open	—	04-03 15:54
btc updown 5m 1775171400	2	$200	1,059	0	+1,059	open	—	04-02 23:12
btc updown 5m 1775757600	3	$200	2,805	0	+2,805	open	—	04-09 18:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	2	$194	254	248	+6	open	—	04-02 23:27
btc updown 5m 1775172300	2	$191	101	100	+1	open	—	04-02 23:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$186	147	147	+0	open	—	04-19 15:35
starmer out by june 22 2026	2	$150	536	0	+536	open	—	06-22 07:12
will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on april 2	2	$143	179	169	+9	open	—	04-02 05:02
btc updown 5m 1775169300	3	$143	166	125	+40	open	—	04-02 22:39
btc updown 5m 1775172000	1	$141	265	0	+265	open	—	04-02 23:20
will bitcoin reach 76k april 6 12	2	$131	621	580	+41	open	—	04-11 18:42
btc updown 5m 1775045100	4	$119	120	113	+7	open	—	04-01 12:10
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	3	$112	145	145	+0	open	—	05-21 18:57
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$104	172	172	+0	open	—	05-16 22:47
bitcoin above 66k on april 3	1	$100	1,250	0	+1,250	open	—	04-03 08:38
btc updown 5m 1775758200	1	$100	352	0	+352	open	—	04-09 18:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 16:16:35	btc updown 5m 1783872900	Down	BUY	103	19¢	$20	0x7868cb…
07-12 16:15:44	btc updown 5m 1783872900	Down	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xb737d9…
06-22 07:12:49	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0x7aaf53…
06-21 14:52:02	btc updown 5m 1782053400	Down	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0x5f503b…
06-21 14:51:13	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0x5a792c…
06-12 06:06:22	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	125	24¢	$30	0xa20f4f…
06-01 13:12:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	70¢	$44	0x77b3a9…
06-01 13:11:46	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	125	37¢	$46	0x17f9b8…
06-01 13:10:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	69¢	$26	0x77c747…
05-31 17:01:26	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Gujarat Titans	BUY	345	3¢	$10	0xd79c56…
05-31 17:00:32	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	270	13¢	$35	0xfdc0af…
05-22 17:19:16	Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	No	BUY	284	2¢	$5	0xe3a3a7…
05-22 14:15:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22?	Down	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0xe2f0f2…
05-22 08:41:48	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	176	17¢	$30	0x15d08b…
05-22 08:39:26	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	BUY	128	23¢	$30	0x017a8c…
05-21 18:57:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	SELL	55	63¢	$34	0x900b4c…
05-21 18:57:45	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	SELL	90	64¢	$58	0x701736…
05-21 17:52:01	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	145	14¢	$20	0xbd5f5a…
05-20 21:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0xf321cb…
05-20 21:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xf3d156…
05-18 17:03:52	Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	Chennai Super Kings	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xf70611…
05-17 17:19:06	Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals	Rajasthan Royals	SELL	375	16¢	$60	0xbbddc8…
05-17 16:57:49	Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals	Rajasthan Royals	BUY	375	8¢	$30	0xb429ac…
05-16 22:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	208	5¢	$10	0x607ee3…
05-16 22:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x0ec35d…
05-16 22:47:25	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	172	31¢	$54	0x5a1b96…
05-16 10:36:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	3,279	0¢	$10	0x387d14…
05-16 10:35:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	435	2¢	$10	0x57e9a8…
05-15 20:03:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xe0ee60…
05-15 20:02:28	Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?	Yes	SELL	120	13¢	$15	0x8df13d…
05-15 14:35:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xb93631…
05-15 14:34:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	370	3¢	$10	0xb09800…
05-15 11:19:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	56	55¢	$31	0xc3b27b…
05-15 11:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xa891e5…
05-15 04:19:04	Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?	Yes	BUY	110	17¢	$19	0x24ae42…
05-15 02:32:24	Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xa7a0db…
05-14 20:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	83	33¢	$27	0x371c00…
05-14 20:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x8af8bd…
05-14 14:47:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	214	14¢	$30	0x667a4a…
05-14 14:30:18	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	333	15¢	$50	0x948767…
05-14 14:17:49	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x7b5943…
05-14 13:46:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	316	46¢	$145	0x77c220…
05-14 10:55:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	316	32¢	$100	0x2aa636…
05-14 10:55:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	444	1¢	$5	0x1c2b5c…
05-14 10:31:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x9f14d8…
05-14 10:29:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	161	35¢	$56	0x525d96…
05-14 04:55:09	Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??	No	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x6b989f…
05-13 23:20:54	Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet?	Yes	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0x9d09b7…
05-13 22:45:04	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x31df3c…
05-13 22:41:53	Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??	No	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xb072b0…
05-13 22:41:48	Will Trump say "Sovereign" or "Sovereignty" during Chinese State Banquet?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x3b2352…
05-13 22:40:29	Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x392b64…
05-13 22:39:49	Will Trump say "Silk Road" during Chinese State Banquet?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x3702f5…
05-13 22:37:29	Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??	No	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x9b4801…
05-13 15:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x1379f4…
05-13 15:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x16f5db…
05-13 15:53:54	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0x8ae620…
05-13 15:47:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x460245…
05-13 15:46:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x085687…
05-13 15:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x85907a…
05-13 15:11:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xf0e468…
05-13 15:09:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xc6c9b0…
05-13 06:54:33	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x6fee8e…
05-12 22:52:25	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0xf5977e…
05-12 22:49:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x733d09…
05-12 22:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x8d9adf…
05-12 22:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x3a3343…
05-12 22:13:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x96420c…
05-12 22:13:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0x79ec05…
05-12 22:12:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	77	33¢	$25	0x3cc64a…
05-12 22:10:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0xc2a868…
05-12 22:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xc11c55…
05-12 22:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xad96ee…
05-12 22:02:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x268867…
05-12 22:01:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x57e800…
05-12 11:34:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x6ed032…
05-12 10:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xb3e36f…
05-12 10:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0xdf62ae…
05-12 10:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xd356a6…
05-12 06:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xdaa34f…
05-11 20:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x043bdb…
05-11 20:42:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xc8d79d…
05-11 20:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x0c1d42…
05-11 20:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0xb8bf5c…
05-11 20:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x539151…
05-11 20:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	70	27¢	$19	0x97f82e…
05-11 20:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	70	22¢	$15	0x943f86…
05-11 20:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	26	32¢	$8	0x151df5…
05-11 20:27:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	26	20¢	$5	0x8b1f8c…
05-11 08:50:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	625	1¢	$5	0xd39332…
05-10 19:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x7fcd96…
05-10 14:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xb88302…
05-09 23:03:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	SELL	26	57¢	$15	0x255179…
05-09 23:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x82cfe3…
05-09 22:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xf1c769…
05-09 22:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x95f7be…
05-09 22:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x6d3007…
05-09 22:42:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xef6fc8…
05-09 22:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x9abfd7…
05-09 22:32:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x8093db…