Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?
open
Total volume
$1,659
$1,750 in 24h
Trades
94
Unique wallets
30
Liquidity
$22,247
Latest YES mid
80¢
Latest NO mid
20¢
End date
2026-05-16
First seen
2026-05-10
last 05-14 22:59
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-66.6¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $153
vs crowd: 67% YES on $1.6K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 1 | — | $7 | $7 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $320 | $147 | +$173 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 27 | $721 | $369 | +$352 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $153 | $153 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $25 | $2 | +$23 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $330 | $144 | +$186 |
| Median | 7 | $501 | $10 | +$491 |
| Below median | 8 | $60 | $34 | +$26 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $91 | $163 | $71 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $30 | $18 | +$12 |
| unranked | 2 | $4 | — | +$4 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x285e…f38c | No | +843 | $142 | $142 | 1 | 05-14 17:04 |
| Impractical-Junket 0xc7fd…0ded | Yes | +588 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 05-14 17:04 |
| Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | +385 | $234 | $376 | 10 | 05-14 19:24 |
| Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | No | +325 | $141 | $147 | 9 | 05-14 17:19 |
| Unsightly-Girlfriend 0x41b4…10da | No | +288 | $153 | $153 | 9 | 05-14 12:32 |
| Oval-Guilty 0xe4c9…e2dc | Yes | +120 | $91 | $91 | 1 | 05-14 20:37 |
| Overlooked-Means 0xfdf3…2583 | No | +100 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-14 17:44 |
| Lazy-Report 0x2510…008d | No | +50 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-11 05:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | +40 | $14 | $14 | 14 | 05-11 02:09 |
| United-Laughter 0x6fb8…fcf3 | Yes | +40 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 05-10 11:26 |
| Respectful-Clan 0x6e1d…d0fa | No | +31 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 05-14 17:22 |
| Caring-Rice 0x5342…d243 | Yes | +28 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 05-14 16:08 |
| Aged-Sunshine 0xb741…f23c | Yes | +28 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 05-14 20:59 |
| Disgusting-Answer 0xe9c6…95c9 | Yes | +25 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 05-14 14:48 |
| Biodegradable-Belief 0x57c8…3d9b | Yes | +25 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 05-12 20:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | +22 | $15 | $15 | 15 | 05-11 02:09 |
| Sleepy-Parenthesis 0xacec…25a5 | Yes | +20 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 05-10 13:52 |
| Biodegradable-Belief 0x57c8…3d9b | No | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-12 20:50 |
| Frank-Mutt 0x2106…29b5 | No | +15 | $3 | $5 | 5 | 05-14 21:57 |
| Courageous-Cyst 0x6b4e…0e0b | Yes | +10 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-13 23:24 |
| Jittery-Chutney 0x03cc…4f76 | Yes | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-14 16:18 |
| Disgusting-Answer 0xe9c6…95c9 | No | +10 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-10 22:51 |
| Muted-Boatyard 0x419f…e853 | No | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 22:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x471e…9b47 | No | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-14 03:46 |
| Crazy-Potato 0x7689…8ffe | No | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 18:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x50af…76f4 | No | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-10 13:52 |
| Wasteful-Someplace 0x747c…bfb5 | Yes | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-13 01:11 |
| Menacing-Rhinoceros 0xd67b…bdb5 | No | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 21:08 |
| Crazy-Potato 0x7689…8ffe | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 08:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x3d45…25a3 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-12 20:50 |
| Quarrelsome-Wax 0x8a98…f9a3 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-10 14:51 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 22:59:48 | Muted-Boatyard 0x419f…e853 | No | BUY | 6 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x990cca… |
| 05-14 21:57:20 | Frank-Mutt 0x2106…29b5 | No | SELL | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x179a23… |
| 05-14 21:57:15 | Frank-Mutt 0x2106…29b5 | No | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x391a34… |
| 05-14 21:45:22 | Frank-Mutt 0x2106…29b5 | No | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x0480f0… |
| 05-14 21:42:24 | Frank-Mutt 0x2106…29b5 | No | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x708a4a… |
| 05-14 21:27:30 | Frank-Mutt 0x2106…29b5 | No | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xe97cb3… |
| 05-14 21:08:37 | Menacing-Rhinoceros 0xd67b…bdb5 | No | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xe46ab1… |
| 05-14 20:59:56 | Aged-Sunshine 0xb741…f23c | Yes | BUY | 28 | 79¢ | $22 | 0x487528… |
| 05-14 20:54:32 | Grimy-Nephew 0x1e63…1a5e | Yes | SELL | 16 | 79¢ | $12 | 0xf648bd… |
| 05-14 20:37:04 | Oval-Guilty 0xe4c9…e2dc | Yes | BUY | 120 | 76¢ | $91 | 0xd3fa34… |
| 05-14 19:24:53 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | SELL | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0x544c70… |
| 05-14 18:46:54 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | BUY | 200 | 80¢ | $160 | 0x18b3be… |
| 05-14 18:34:37 | Crazy-Potato 0x7689…8ffe | No | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xf18463… |
| 05-14 17:44:40 | Overlooked-Means 0xfdf3…2583 | No | BUY | 100 | 20¢ | $20 | 0x41baf9… |
| 05-14 17:22:00 | Respectful-Clan 0x6e1d…d0fa | No | BUY | 1 | 22¢ | $0 | 0x83f96d… |
| 05-14 17:22:00 | Respectful-Clan 0x6e1d…d0fa | No | BUY | 30 | 22¢ | $7 | 0x6348d8… |
| 05-14 17:19:36 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | No | SELL | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0xb6cbd1… |
| 05-14 17:18:40 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | No | SELL | 8 | 21¢ | $2 | 0xf08440… |
| 05-14 17:04:40 | (anonymous) 0x285e…f38c | No | BUY | 843 | 17¢ | $142 | 0x9d8f3d… |
| 05-14 17:04:26 | Impractical-Junket 0xc7fd…0ded | Yes | BUY | 588 | 85¢ | $500 | 0xae4116… |
| 05-14 16:18:55 | Jittery-Chutney 0x03cc…4f76 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 77¢ | $8 | 0x7e9246… |
| 05-14 16:08:21 | Caring-Rice 0x5342…d243 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 76¢ | $22 | 0xbd74ca… |
| 05-14 14:49:20 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | No | BUY | 150 | 38¢ | $57 | 0xf3470f… |
| 05-14 14:48:23 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | No | BUY | 100 | 41¢ | $41 | 0x39b69a… |
| 05-14 14:48:23 | Disgusting-Answer 0xe9c6…95c9 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 60¢ | $15 | 0x7cbedd… |
| 05-14 13:56:05 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | BUY | 25 | 48¢ | $12 | 0xe11c31… |
| 05-14 12:32:40 | Unsightly-Girlfriend 0x41b4…10da | No | BUY | 26 | 61¢ | $16 | 0xf8c415… |
| 05-14 11:17:06 | Unsightly-Girlfriend 0x41b4…10da | No | BUY | 55 | 61¢ | $34 | 0x34f833… |
| 05-14 11:14:16 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | No | BUY | 50 | 59¢ | $30 | 0x901f52… |
| 05-14 10:09:31 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | BUY | 100 | 42¢ | $42 | 0xf9d4bc… |
| 05-14 08:49:13 | Crazy-Potato 0x7689…8ffe | Yes | BUY | 2 | 48¢ | $1 | 0x3a59f1… |
| 05-14 06:25:33 | Unsightly-Girlfriend 0x41b4…10da | No | BUY | 9 | 53¢ | $5 | 0xe605d4… |
| 05-14 05:50:12 | Unsightly-Girlfriend 0x41b4…10da | No | BUY | 8 | 54¢ | $4 | 0x92210b… |
| 05-14 03:46:02 | (anonymous) 0x471e…9b47 | No | BUY | 5 | 64¢ | $3 | 0x323fe5… |
| 05-14 03:31:43 | Unsightly-Girlfriend 0x41b4…10da | No | BUY | 28 | 61¢ | $17 | 0x42819e… |
| 05-14 02:56:01 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | BUY | 105 | 40¢ | $42 | 0x493380… |
| 05-14 02:53:58 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | BUY | 5 | 38¢ | $2 | 0x92d971… |
| 05-14 00:17:14 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | No | BUY | 5 | 58¢ | $3 | 0xb20790… |
| 05-14 00:14:50 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | No | BUY | 5 | 59¢ | $3 | 0xab43e6… |
| 05-13 23:24:02 | Courageous-Cyst 0x6b4e…0e0b | Yes | BUY | 10 | 41¢ | $4 | 0xf40cab… |
| 05-13 22:25:17 | Muted-Boatyard 0x419f…e853 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 37¢ | $2 | 0xcc45fb… |
| 05-13 22:18:24 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | SELL | 32 | 39¢ | $12 | 0x4d41d6… |
| 05-13 22:14:12 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | SELL | 120 | 39¢ | $47 | 0x9798e2… |
| 05-13 22:13:39 | Scaly-Deployment 0x96b6…eb60 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0xbb6325… |
| 05-13 22:09:16 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | BUY | 120 | 39¢ | $47 | 0x3588cf… |
| 05-13 20:12:40 | Unsightly-Girlfriend 0x41b4…10da | No | BUY | 51 | 57¢ | $29 | 0x59ece4… |
| 05-13 03:36:13 | Hearty-Ozone-Episode 0xe840…013f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0x135aad… |
| 05-13 01:11:49 | Wasteful-Someplace 0x747c…bfb5 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x59694a… |
| 05-13 01:07:10 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | No | BUY | 13 | 38¢ | $5 | 0xded82b… |
| 05-12 20:50:53 | Biodegradable-Belief 0x57c8…3d9b | No | BUY | 20 | 42¢ | $8 | 0x59fad6… |
| 05-12 20:50:53 | (anonymous) 0x3d45…25a3 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 61¢ | $1 | 0x3705ed… |
| 05-12 20:47:56 | Biodegradable-Belief 0x57c8…3d9b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 61¢ | $12 | 0x99220d… |
| 05-12 20:40:55 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | No | BUY | 15 | 39¢ | $6 | 0x36beea… |
| 05-12 20:40:46 | Biodegradable-Belief 0x57c8…3d9b | Yes | BUY | 5 | 61¢ | $3 | 0xa5bb7c… |
| 05-12 19:47:25 | Unsightly-Girlfriend 0x41b4…10da | No | BUY | 5 | 40¢ | $2 | 0x35d807… |
| 05-12 19:21:22 | Unsightly-Girlfriend 0x41b4…10da | No | BUY | 66 | 39¢ | $26 | 0xfb3cc5… |
| 05-12 16:56:32 | Unsightly-Girlfriend 0x41b4…10da | No | BUY | 40 | 51¢ | $21 | 0x2cf51e… |
| 05-11 05:43:38 | Lazy-Report 0x2510…008d | No | BUY | 50 | 40¢ | $20 | 0x1ab7be… |
| 05-11 05:03:57 | Curvy-Merchandise 0x328c…cbbc | Yes | SELL | 13 | 61¢ | $8 | 0xf215c5… |
| 05-11 02:09:23 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0xd6914f… |
| 05-11 02:09:23 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0xe259b0… |
| 05-11 02:09:23 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x9710f5… |
| 05-11 02:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x168fa4… |
| 05-11 02:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0x776504… |
| 05-11 02:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0x48f427… |
| 05-11 02:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0xa81b8e… |
| 05-11 02:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x5b4cd1… |
| 05-11 02:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x8f46b3… |
| 05-11 02:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0xff616e… |
| 05-11 02:09:21 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0x55800b… |
| 05-11 02:09:19 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0xa6d3f0… |
| 05-11 02:09:19 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0x27bc6e… |
| 05-11 02:09:19 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0xf8997e… |
| 05-11 02:09:18 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x0bddc1… |
| 05-11 02:09:18 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0x0fb557… |
| 05-11 02:09:18 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0x88542c… |
| 05-11 02:09:18 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0x04244a… |
| 05-11 02:09:18 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0xb4ee0d… |
| 05-11 02:09:18 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x8d3831… |
| 05-11 02:09:16 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0xac4799… |
| 05-11 02:09:16 | Forsaken-Smile 0xccfa…aa64 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 65¢ | $1 | 0x945b78… |
| 05-11 02:09:16 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0xa4a77d… |
| 05-11 02:09:14 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0x037744… |
| 05-11 02:09:14 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x290599… |
| 05-11 02:09:14 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0x5310c7… |
| 05-11 02:09:12 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0xfbae5d… |
| 05-11 02:09:11 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | No | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x6c091b… |
| 05-11 02:09:11 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0xc41d3e… |
| 05-11 02:09:09 | (anonymous) 0x9b87…dfc7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 69¢ | $1 | 0xeba2e4… |
| 05-10 22:51:38 | Disgusting-Answer 0xe9c6…95c9 | No | BUY | 10 | 27¢ | $3 | 0xa17e2a… |
| 05-10 14:51:40 | Quarrelsome-Wax 0x8a98…f9a3 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 63¢ | $1 | 0x5c37fe… |
| 05-10 13:52:29 | Sleepy-Parenthesis 0xacec…25a5 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 64¢ | $13 | 0x3437c7… |
| 05-10 13:52:17 | (anonymous) 0x50af…76f4 | No | BUY | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x71bfa5… |
| 05-10 11:26:25 | United-Laughter 0x6fb8…fcf3 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 63¢ | $25 | 0x12205c… |