Hard-Crown — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

222

lifetime

Volume

$7.86K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-26

last 06-25 09:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

43% 0% —

Politics

33% 0% $-0

Sports

23% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes		+0	$0	12¢	$0	$-0	06-25 09:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	9	$427	411	411	+0	No	$-0	04-24 12:48
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	5	$402	219	219	+0	open	—	06-13 12:38
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	9	$378	240	240	+0	open	—	06-06 05:56
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	6	$293	388	388	+0	open	—	06-10 20:16
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	11	$261	482	482	+0	open	—	05-26 10:46
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	5	$252	128	128	+0	open	—	04-23 14:56
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	3	$213	159	159	+0	open	—	06-09 03:52
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	2	$211	109	109	+0	open	—	03-31 20:03
will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$211	113	113	+0	open	—	03-26 08:14
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	2	$210	112	112	+0	No	$-0	03-31 02:46
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	5	$210	730	418	+312	open	—	06-14 15:06
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$210	107	107	+0	open	—	04-03 17:29
Will Alberta join the US?	2	$210	110	110	+0	open	—	06-05 16:42
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$202	151	151	+0	open	—	06-18 05:14
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$201	118	117	+1	open	—	04-26 12:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$194	176	176	+0	open	—	06-12 21:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	5	$191	195	195	+0	open	—	06-05 06:40
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	3	$191	99	99	+0	open	—	03-27 21:32
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$187	291	291	+0	No	$-0	04-18 07:19
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$187	108	108	+0	open	—	04-22 03:50
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$186	94	175	-81	open	—	05-29 19:33
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	4	$185	94	94	+0	open	—	04-13 01:50
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	3	$183	185	185	+0	open	—	05-28 16:21
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$183	94	94	+0	open	—	04-21 09:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	4	$182	95	95	+0	open	—	05-31 18:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	3	$182	92	92	+0	open	—	05-25 11:08
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$181	95	95	+0	open	—	04-20 19:52
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$179	93	93	+0	open	—	06-23 00:21
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	4	$179	91	91	+0	open	—	06-10 00:35
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	2	$178	129	129	+0	open	—	06-23 13:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 09:23:46	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	185	19¢	$35	0x29784c…
06-25 07:44:40	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x529993…
06-25 07:43:13	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	19¢	$12	0xbed57b…
06-25 07:43:13	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	19¢	$19	0x78bc44…
06-23 20:18:56	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x2cbacb…
06-23 18:17:26	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	53	87¢	$46	0xd89543…
06-23 18:17:26	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	18	87¢	$16	0x2875c7…
06-23 15:09:52	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	81	88¢	$71	0x1b58f6…
06-23 13:07:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	129	68¢	$88	0x9b794d…
06-23 07:24:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	129	70¢	$90	0x0aa2b8…
06-23 00:21:43	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0xc59af3…
06-23 00:21:43	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0xba4656…
06-22 20:42:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	93	96¢	$89	0x286da7…
06-22 00:12:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x4e21f6…
06-20 00:32:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	Yes	SELL	38	5¢	$2	0x43a5aa…
06-19 22:30:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	Yes	BUY	48	6¢	$3	0x008445…
06-19 15:20:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	2¢	$2	0x448803…
06-19 14:03:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	2¢	$2	0x468d8e…
06-18 19:29:59	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x403d42…
06-18 19:29:59	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	137	12¢	$16	0x053990…
06-18 17:50:32	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	86	12¢	$10	0x666fc6…
06-18 17:50:32	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	61	12¢	$7	0x539a90…
06-18 05:14:10	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0xa54fbd…
06-18 03:13:25	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	146	66¢	$96	0x0eb570…
06-18 01:54:37	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	151	68¢	$103	0x386239…
06-15 15:22:33	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	7¢	$14	0xb90320…
06-15 09:59:43	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x870eea…
06-15 09:59:34	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	5¢	$4	0x94a0af…
06-15 09:59:34	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x7802d1…
06-15 09:59:34	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x1faf25…
06-14 15:06:18	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	323	2¢	$7	0x7e22e2…
06-14 13:56:21	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	323	3¢	$9	0x03641e…
06-14 10:55:24	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	95	97¢	$92	0x64f1f8…
06-14 05:48:52	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	95	96¢	$92	0xb92d5d…
06-13 23:51:49	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	312	3¢	$10	0xfd1906…
06-13 12:38:30	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	106	95¢	$101	0x884d1b…
06-13 11:11:40	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	106	96¢	$101	0xabe198…
06-13 04:00:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	104	22¢	$23	0x1cd2bc…
06-12 23:45:21	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	104	23¢	$24	0x67a924…
06-12 21:07:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	122	52¢	$63	0x742b77…
06-12 19:51:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	54	53¢	$29	0x88781e…
06-12 15:03:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	151	58¢	$87	0x71d078…
06-12 15:03:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	25	58¢	$15	0x23d602…
06-12 11:13:54	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	110	91¢	$100	0xf97f85…
06-12 11:13:54	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0xaeec59…
06-12 08:00:16	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	113	86¢	$97	0x023759…
06-10 20:16:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x9631cc…
06-10 18:13:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	109	36¢	$39	0xcccafc…
06-10 18:13:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	159	36¢	$57	0x525204…
06-10 15:47:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	273	36¢	$98	0x259be5…
06-10 07:03:30	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	115	42¢	$48	0xf53b1b…
06-10 05:46:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	115	42¢	$48	0xf4e964…
06-10 00:35:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0x7f358a…
06-10 00:35:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0xcd34a9…
06-09 22:28:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	83	98¢	$81	0xf780e1…
06-09 22:28:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x00dd33…
06-09 03:52:12	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	86	67¢	$58	0x45305f…
06-09 03:52:12	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	73	67¢	$49	0x08f213…
06-09 01:45:19	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	159	67¢	$107	0x65a220…
06-08 17:58:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	36	21¢	$8	0x5ee766…
06-08 15:23:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	36	20¢	$7	0xed221c…
06-06 22:43:10	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	54	82¢	$44	0x9c1411…
06-06 22:43:10	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	21	82¢	$17	0x2b708d…
06-06 22:43:10	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	34	82¢	$28	0x033f68…
06-06 18:51:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	109	81¢	$89	0x12c7d2…
06-06 05:56:58	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0x6aaed9…
06-06 05:49:43	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	105	79¢	$83	0xc7d983…
06-06 05:23:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0x23d21f…
06-06 01:09:16	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0xf1b173…
06-06 01:09:16	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xe216a2…
06-06 01:09:16	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	99	78¢	$77	0x6a1b71…
06-05 16:42:52	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	110	95¢	$105	0xd22f80…
06-05 14:20:01	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	110	95¢	$105	0x253a95…
06-05 06:40:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	49¢	$35	0xfbba4e…
06-05 06:40:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	124	49¢	$61	0x7336fd…
06-05 02:14:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	49¢	$0	0xd34561…
06-05 02:14:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	49¢	$27	0x5d7244…
06-05 02:14:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	139	49¢	$68	0x0fa406…
06-04 21:30:49	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	208	5¢	$10	0x5bbb72…
06-04 19:27:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	208	4¢	$8	0x4a4454…
06-03 23:23:39	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	118	79¢	$93	0x280f4a…
06-03 21:35:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	33	79¢	$26	0xb4c85e…
06-03 21:35:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	85	79¢	$67	0x7489e7…
06-03 15:45:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	31¢	$4	0x8cb30f…
06-03 15:45:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	31¢	$19	0x4bfc49…
06-03 15:45:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	31¢	$7	0x41c19f…
06-03 15:45:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	41	31¢	$13	0x085357…
06-03 15:45:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	62	31¢	$19	0x079583…
06-03 15:45:21	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	31¢	$4	0x011999…
06-03 12:05:51	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	210	30¢	$63	0x85dc81…
06-02 11:23:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	1¢	$0	0xfef62c…
06-02 11:23:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	1¢	$1	0xf5f529…
06-02 11:23:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	1¢	$1	0xda2456…
06-02 11:23:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0xd8eb08…
06-02 11:23:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0xd67d62…
06-02 11:23:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	1¢	$1	0x20635d…
06-02 09:28:15	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	305	2¢	$5	0x61412e…
05-31 18:34:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	36	96¢	$35	0xcf37a6…
05-31 18:34:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	44	96¢	$42	0x4ff180…
05-31 18:34:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x30f86a…