Flawed-Forecast — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$21

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.4%

Resolved

153

Trades

11,254

lifetime

Volume

$102.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 07-14 13:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 38% +$15

Sports

1% — —

Politics

1% — —

Other

1% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 223 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	51	$1.4K	2,005	0	+2,005	open	—	04-30 07:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	32	$1.0K	2,024	18	+2,006	open	—	05-04 15:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	17	$895	1,110	0	+1,110	open	—	04-29 17:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	10	$888	956	0	+956	open	—	04-30 02:31
Lakers vs. Rockets	4	$876	900	0	+900	open	—	05-02 03:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	63	$785	2,294	0	+2,294	open	—	04-29 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	44	$705	1,522	0	+1,522	open	—	04-29 10:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	41	$702	2,092	0	+2,092	open	—	04-29 12:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	17	$692	953	0	+953	open	—	05-04 15:58
bitcoin up or down june 7 2026 11pm et	31	$670	1,190	0	+1,190	open	—	06-08 03:57
bitcoin up or down april 21 2026 8am et	28	$660	465	378	+88	open	—	04-21 15:42
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$620	500	500	+0	open	—	04-28 15:12
bitcoin up or down july 2 2026 6am et	18	$582	1,349	0	+1,349	open	—	07-02 10:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	30	$565	2,023	0	+2,023	open	—	04-29 16:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6PM ET	32	$551	1,289	0	+1,289	Up	+$26	05-09 23:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	46	$499	991	2	+989	open	—	04-29 02:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5AM ET	17	$495	756	0	+756	open	—	05-26 09:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	75	$483	1,865	12	+1,853	open	—	04-29 07:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	38	$480	1,384	0	+1,384	open	—	04-29 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	34	$480	1,478	0	+1,478	open	—	04-29 12:59
bitcoin up or down june 6 2026 8am et	12	$474	652	0	+652	open	—	06-06 12:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	60	$474	1,938	0	+1,938	open	—	04-29 08:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	42	$472	1,114	0	+1,114	Up	+$202	05-12 14:59
bitcoin up or down july 2 2026 11am et	22	$460	920	0	+920	open	—	07-02 15:57
bitcoin up or down june 8 2026 9am et	17	$452	624	0	+624	open	—	06-08 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7AM ET	18	$445	569	0	+569	open	—	05-01 11:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	31	$437	997	0	+997	open	—	04-29 15:29
bitcoin up or down june 26 2026 8am et	32	$435	1,957	30	+1,926	open	—	06-26 12:57
bitcoin up or down june 16 2026 8am et	16	$431	867	0	+867	open	—	06-16 12:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	63	$423	2,156	0	+2,156	open	—	04-29 14:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 13:01:44	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 8am et	Up	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x823193…
07-14 12:32:05	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	15	91¢	$13	0x3f1fb2…
07-14 11:54:59	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	94	3¢	$3	0x8be3f0…
07-14 11:46:07	ethereum up or down july 14 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x4cc4e1…
07-14 11:28:32	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	152	26¢	$39	0x719a39…
07-14 11:28:29	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	259	25¢	$65	0x6504f4…
07-14 11:21:55	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x741349…
07-14 10:31:43	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x80da6c…
07-14 10:31:22	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x0a35ae…
07-14 10:14:34	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x7a6fa2…
07-14 09:55:04	ethereum up or down july 14 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x1d19dd…
07-14 09:54:07	ethereum up or down july 14 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xe0df18…
07-14 09:50:11	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	45	3¢	$1	0x6d8301…
07-14 09:50:08	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x6a095d…
07-14 09:37:07	ethereum up or down july 14 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	73	23¢	$17	0x43b9fe…
07-14 09:30:55	ethereum up or down july 14 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x366867…
07-14 09:30:32	ethereum up or down july 14 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	8	69¢	$5	0x7eafbf…
07-14 09:30:29	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	12	31¢	$4	0xa3b496…
07-14 07:46:10	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	65	82¢	$53	0xd70ea4…
07-14 07:44:13	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x8acc8d…
07-14 05:57:20	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	21	17¢	$4	0xbdc68b…
07-14 05:57:16	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	91	16¢	$14	0xf7fabf…
07-14 05:56:43	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	18	18¢	$3	0xffce26…
07-14 05:56:38	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x10aace…
07-14 05:55:28	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x448ef3…
07-14 05:20:22	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	109	56¢	$61	0x489535…
07-14 04:33:16	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 12am et	Down	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x9807ff…
07-14 04:32:26	bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 12am et	Down	BUY	13	17¢	$2	0x4baf35…
07-14 04:03:53	ethereum up or down july 14 2026 12am et	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x08a163…
07-14 03:59:05	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	33	7¢	$2	0x5ccc58…
07-14 03:53:52	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0xf52c01…
07-14 03:20:43	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xb9ba28…
07-14 02:59:46	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x9f851b…
07-14 02:47:52	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0xa2f240…
07-14 02:26:52	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0xedce1c…
07-14 02:26:50	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	35	8¢	$3	0x7f5a43…
07-14 02:23:47	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	41	16¢	$7	0x0612b8…
07-14 02:19:32	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	36	26¢	$9	0xf0fff5…
07-14 02:18:07	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x73a7cd…
07-14 01:52:37	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xccd1da…
07-14 01:48:28	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	142	69¢	$98	0x3d4bf7…
07-14 01:46:17	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	56	24¢	$13	0x2ec2a4…
07-14 00:52:44	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xcf6343…
07-14 00:46:05	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0xcacbbe…
07-13 22:42:55	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x891bb7…
07-13 20:45:28	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	52	6¢	$3	0xe8a4bf…
07-13 20:44:16	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0x17d943…
07-13 20:36:50	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x3dc0bb…
07-13 20:36:47	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x7490ff…
07-13 20:24:56	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	63	84¢	$53	0xe93814…
07-13 19:14:17	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	88	32¢	$28	0x36e811…
07-13 19:12:40	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	124	33¢	$41	0x9b62ba…
07-13 17:01:29	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	27	39¢	$10	0x22d1b6…
07-13 15:48:28	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	109	86¢	$94	0x8d697e…
07-13 15:23:28	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	49	29¢	$14	0xa9154d…
07-13 15:17:55	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x6f6c9b…
07-13 14:16:53	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x85d056…
07-13 14:10:53	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xa91d92…
07-13 14:04:31	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	125	54¢	$68	0x00919a…
07-13 14:04:28	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x51a3db…
07-13 13:58:29	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0xef453c…
07-13 13:43:35	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x27a8be…
07-13 13:42:07	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0xec9797…
07-13 13:41:37	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x5462ea…
07-13 13:41:02	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0x0cdaa3…
07-13 13:31:10	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0x9fb3a0…
07-13 13:20:17	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0xbb861d…
07-13 13:20:10	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	23	27¢	$6	0xbf0fe5…
07-13 13:19:13	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x734a6c…
07-13 12:36:37	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0x68b347…
07-13 11:56:44	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xac5524…
07-13 11:56:40	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xca085e…
07-13 11:38:26	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	50	89¢	$45	0xc9f9f4…
07-13 11:28:10	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	29	90¢	$27	0x40256b…
07-13 11:28:08	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	47	89¢	$42	0xd70acf…
07-13 11:24:44	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xb30176…
07-13 11:21:50	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x9f9ddf…
07-13 11:18:32	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	13	57¢	$8	0xe5de85…
07-13 11:09:19	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	46	8¢	$4	0x649f91…
07-13 11:09:17	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	32	8¢	$3	0x7d4529…
07-13 11:09:14	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	69	8¢	$6	0x13156e…
07-13 11:02:16	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0xe2ff3b…
07-13 10:45:31	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xb3c63a…
07-13 10:42:05	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x5dce40…
07-13 10:19:31	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	35	37¢	$13	0x6da68e…
07-13 10:19:26	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xb43be7…
07-13 09:46:07	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	39	8¢	$3	0x1a33fb…
07-13 09:35:07	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x03b9cc…
07-13 08:34:49	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	51	18¢	$9	0xab7ac8…
07-13 07:28:38	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	96	8¢	$8	0x78f559…
07-13 07:23:56	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	87	21¢	$18	0x3a0c2f…
07-13 06:52:32	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0x22201d…
07-13 06:45:53	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	45	54¢	$24	0x4a3c37…
07-13 06:25:16	ethereum up or down july 13 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	34	17¢	$6	0xe73de2…
07-13 05:44:34	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x7b0b5e…
07-13 05:44:32	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	23	11¢	$3	0x9096be…
07-13 05:44:31	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	32	11¢	$4	0xe00ce5…
07-13 05:44:28	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x84e1de…
07-13 05:44:25	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	67	11¢	$7	0x58ed26…
07-13 05:37:47	bitcoin up or down july 13 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0xec699a…