Flawed-Forecast — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$15

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

73.6%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

36 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$399

$399 lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-05 20:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 50% +$15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4PM ET	Up		+8	$5	100¢	$8	+$3	05-05 20:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	2	$84	88	+88	Up	+$4	05-05 01:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	2	$54	59	+59	Up	+$5	05-05 00:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	2	$49	59	+59	Down	+$9	05-05 04:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	6	$41	172	+172	Down	$-41	05-05 05:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	2	$30	42	+42	Up	$-0	05-04 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	1	$27	29	+29	Down	+$2	05-04 22:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	2	$21	37	+37	Up	+$16	05-05 01:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	2	$21	58	+58	Down	+$37	05-05 04:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	3	$16	51	+51	Down	+$7	05-05 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	2	$12	40	+40	open	—	05-05 06:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	1	$9	30	+30	Up	$-9	05-05 03:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	3	$8	37	+37	Down	$-8	05-05 03:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	2	$7	30	+30	Up	$-7	05-05 00:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	1	$7	12	+12	Down	+$5	05-05 05:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4PM ET	1	$5	8	+8	open	—	05-05 20:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	1	$4	32	+32	Up	$-4	05-05 02:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9AM ET	1	$3	8	+8	open	—	05-05 13:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	1	$1	30	+30	Up	$-1	05-05 03:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	1	$1	34	+34	Up	$-1	05-05 02:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 20:40:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0xb8d513…
05-05 13:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x9e945b…
05-05 06:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	23	32¢	$7	0xeb9a94…
05-05 06:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	25¢	$4	0xe92e02…
05-05 05:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	74	23¢	$17	0x0f7897…
05-05 05:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	18	23¢	$4	0xab6da0…
05-05 05:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x8c7a4c…
05-05 05:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x223ff0…
05-05 05:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	26	24¢	$6	0xd7106d…
05-05 05:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	31	24¢	$7	0x77cf1a…
05-05 05:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0x6cc667…
05-05 04:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	28	38¢	$11	0xe0f63f…
05-05 04:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	30	35¢	$11	0x6e86c7…
05-05 04:10:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	29	84¢	$25	0x31d4b5…
05-05 04:10:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	29	84¢	$25	0x799b0c…
05-05 03:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	19	22¢	$4	0x42bfd9…
05-05 03:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x483ffa…
05-05 03:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x7e8da2…
05-05 03:35:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x1f5eee…
05-05 03:26:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x1fcf52…
05-05 02:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x77480e…
05-05 02:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	32	12¢	$4	0x0cb20a…
05-05 01:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x56cb1f…
05-05 01:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x8b008c…
05-05 01:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xf4602d…
05-05 01:39:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	65¢	$8	0x71a597…
05-05 01:39:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	65¢	$8	0xc982c4…
05-05 01:20:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	29	58¢	$17	0xd8bfb3…
05-05 01:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x4158b7…
05-05 00:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0xc7b4ea…
05-05 00:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0xad1405…
05-05 00:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	29	91¢	$27	0x13518c…
05-05 00:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	29	91¢	$27	0xa919a3…
05-04 22:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0x00e234…
05-04 21:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xa1ce24…
05-04 21:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x6b7dc7…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	19	$6.62K	198	05-05 20:54
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	15	$4.02K	79	05-05 20:45
Minty-Complicity 0xee55…7b04	15	$844	80	05-05 06:40
Lucky-Incidence 0x5bea…9f47	14	$627	38	05-05 06:30
Constant-Relation 0x01b7…2eca	13	$768	34	05-05 06:40
Zesty-Mosque 0xdf65…c36d	13	$720	32	05-05 06:40
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	12	$2.94K	99	05-05 06:40
Youthful-Movement 0x8da4…f3d1	11	$795	79	05-05 06:35