Scrawny-Muskrat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

136

lifetime

Volume

$5.63K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 05-22 01:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

71% 100% +$1

Other

29% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	10	$665	342	342	+0	open	—	05-15 15:43
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	9	$526	271	271	+0	open	—	04-27 02:29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$376	190	190	+0	open	—	04-30 22:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	11	$360	356	356	+0	No	+$0	05-10 07:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	5	$348	188	188	+0	open	—	05-06 09:03
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	14	$347	515	515	+0	open	—	05-15 10:26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	6	$331	169	169	+0	No	+$1	05-08 19:25
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	5	$211	234	234	+0	open	—	04-23 04:06
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	5	$195	194	194	+0	open	—	04-25 04:22
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	3	$194	99	99	+0	open	—	04-26 04:26
Will France strike Iran by April 30?	3	$192	98	98	+0	open	—	04-28 02:20
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$192	98	98	+0	open	—	04-22 11:41
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	2	$178	92	92	+0	open	—	04-27 22:11
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	3	$178	90	90	+0	open	—	04-27 08:40
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	3	$176	95	95	+0	open	—	04-20 18:48
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	3	$174	93	93	+0	open	—	04-21 19:35
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	3	$174	92	92	+0	open	—	04-22 01:49
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	2	$169	88	88	+0	open	—	05-14 03:40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$167	86	86	+0	open	—	05-11 19:05
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	3	$146	75	75	+0	open	—	04-26 19:25
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	6	$117	154	154	+0	open	—	04-23 22:50
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$114	58	58	+0	open	—	04-16 02:06
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine?	1	$34	35	0	+35	open	—	05-22 01:39
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	4	$18	193	193	+0	open	—	04-24 03:56
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$16	202	202	+0	open	—	04-25 20:39
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	2	$10	202	202	+0	open	—	04-16 08:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	10	$7	192	192	+0	open	—	05-09 16:11
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	5	$6	223	223	+0	open	—	05-06 19:24
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	3	$4	180	180	+0	open	—	04-23 14:01
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	1	$4	86	0	+86	open	—	05-19 01:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-22 01:39:17	Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine?	Yes	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0xc57d40…
05-19 01:06:13	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	86	5¢	$4	0x5908be…
05-15 15:43:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xafb6c7…
05-15 15:43:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	81	98¢	$80	0x5d70ee…
05-15 10:47:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x70e903…
05-15 10:47:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	73	98¢	$71	0x1fce0d…
05-15 10:26:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	1¢	$0	0xe85c5f…
05-15 05:58:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	1¢	$1	0xc3dcda…
05-15 03:55:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	1¢	$1	0x785a0f…
05-15 03:55:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	1¢	$1	0x3159f0…
05-15 03:55:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x27abb4…
05-14 23:20:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	87	96¢	$84	0xff76ee…
05-14 22:02:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	87	96¢	$84	0x2a62ba…
05-14 21:48:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	87	96¢	$84	0x1ca1c9…
05-14 21:23:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	87	97¢	$84	0xe342ef…
05-14 18:05:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	86	98¢	$84	0x3de007…
05-14 13:26:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xaf0299…
05-14 13:26:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	84	98¢	$82	0x952b0b…
05-14 03:40:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	88	96¢	$85	0xeb3e9e…
05-13 22:33:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	88	96¢	$84	0x92117a…
05-13 11:11:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	86	98¢	$85	0xc15f08…
05-13 09:54:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xae23ae…
05-13 09:54:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	75	98¢	$74	0x5b9850…
05-13 09:32:33	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$0	0x271615…
05-13 06:30:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	83	98¢	$81	0x87c775…
05-13 05:50:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	2¢	$3	0xb586db…
05-13 04:37:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	83	98¢	$81	0x6d82d9…
05-13 04:23:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	187	2¢	$3	0xd34406…
05-11 19:05:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0xed7a31…
05-11 19:05:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0xae03c7…
05-11 15:04:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	65	96¢	$63	0xf2676f…
05-11 15:04:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x9b673a…
05-10 07:22:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x844490…
05-10 07:22:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	73	96¢	$70	0x77d0f3…
05-10 07:22:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x0f9a7a…
05-10 03:34:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	86	96¢	$83	0x014bc6…
05-09 22:46:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	176	4¢	$7	0x1b834b…
05-09 19:51:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	4¢	$3	0xe50274…
05-09 19:51:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0x6bfc47…
05-09 19:51:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	4¢	$2	0x6351a2…
05-09 16:11:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	87	1¢	$1	0xf7f1e7…
05-09 16:11:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x405cca…
05-09 13:38:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	92	2¢	$2	0xc2fa35…
05-09 12:42:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x218a9a…
05-09 12:42:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	64	96¢	$61	0x019160…
05-09 10:11:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	94	96¢	$91	0x44e165…
05-08 19:25:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	63	99¢	$62	0x23aef5…
05-08 19:25:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x147df7…
05-08 15:45:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	84	98¢	$83	0x7064a8…
05-08 05:08:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0x6ecaf7…
05-08 05:08:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	51	97¢	$50	0x2bf5e2…
05-08 01:47:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	85	97¢	$82	0x6a4646…
05-06 19:24:38	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	68	2¢	$1	0xf5d37b…
05-06 19:24:38	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	29	2¢	$0	0xec9215…
05-06 19:24:38	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	48	2¢	$1	0x98a7b2…
05-06 19:24:38	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	78	2¢	$1	0x0d5d1b…
05-06 15:46:07	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	223	1¢	$3	0xd3546f…
05-06 09:03:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	95	83¢	$79	0x509e97…
05-06 05:01:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	95	95¢	$90	0x059894…
05-05 21:51:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0x9932af…
05-05 21:51:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	24	2¢	$0	0xe98364…
05-05 21:51:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	24	2¢	$0	0xb02cfc…
05-05 21:51:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	31	2¢	$1	0xa8518c…
05-05 21:51:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0xa3fcc4…
05-05 19:47:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	78	2¢	$2	0xab9483…
05-05 19:47:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x7e44ed…
05-05 16:58:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	93	96¢	$90	0x6e2f79…
05-05 14:15:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	63	96¢	$61	0x9a11a9…
05-05 14:15:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x08f9bd…
04-30 22:00:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	99	99¢	$98	0xa9aefe…
04-30 19:20:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	99	99¢	$98	0xbb017f…
04-30 11:46:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0xf2e7a0…
04-30 06:33:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x509fb9…
04-28 02:20:46	Will France strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb92e5b…
04-27 22:11:12	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	92	97¢	$89	0x083738…
04-27 21:41:30	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	92	97¢	$89	0x62d5aa…
04-27 08:40:02	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	69	99¢	$68	0xb892e6…
04-27 08:40:02	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x4a97dc…
04-27 06:20:32	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x72b602…
04-27 02:29:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0xc2fb4b…
04-26 23:44:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0xdbe709…
04-26 19:25:04	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	72	97¢	$70	0x496e16…
04-26 19:25:04	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x4699e3…
04-26 16:21:40	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	75	98¢	$73	0x45c691…
04-26 14:18:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	69	98¢	$68	0xfed7ec…
04-26 14:18:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xc638a6…
04-26 14:18:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0xb82883…
04-26 09:44:34	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0xda8401…
04-26 04:26:04	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xb239cc…
04-26 04:15:18	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0xcb29b6…
04-26 04:14:32	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0xcb1453…
04-25 20:39:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	202	4¢	$9	0x378b8c…
04-25 18:40:44	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	202	4¢	$7	0x2dfc35…
04-25 07:58:48	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	91	95¢	$87	0xaef4dc…
04-25 05:28:06	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	89	95¢	$85	0x7f77ee…
04-25 05:28:06	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x0a5dcc…
04-25 04:22:48	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	97	99¢	$96	0x858159…
04-25 02:15:56	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0xaafe6f…
04-24 22:27:44	Will France strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	97	98¢	$95	0xbeb036…
04-24 21:24:58	Will France strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	98	98¢	$96	0x6f44dc…