Uncommon-Jailhouse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$140

Unrealized P&L

+$3.39K

Hit rate

77.1%

Resolved

164

Trades

288

lifetime

Volume

$10.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

$7.39K

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 10-03 13:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Other

81% 67% +$242

Politics

12% 14% -$400

Crypto

6% 56% +$17

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+7,480	$3,220	88¢	$6.6K	+$3,400	08-04 16:13
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+1,184	$769	64¢	$764	-$6	10-03 13:36
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	-5	-$4	97¢	$-5	$0	06-13 12:11
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	-3	-$2	93¢	$-2	$0	06-13 12:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	6	$3.2K	7,480	0	+7,480	open	—	08-04 16:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$2.1K	1,377	1,377	+0	No	+$532	07-10 21:12
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	2	$1.3K	1,077	1,077	+0	No	+$81	08-04 16:03
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$1.2K	789	789	+0	No	+$189	08-02 13:24
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	1	$769	1,184	0	+1,184	open	—	10-03 13:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	3	$415	10,810	0	+10,810	Yes	-$415	06-18 00:12
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	2	$355	323	323	+0	Yes	-$45	07-11 21:27
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	1	$300	458	0	+458	Yes	-$300	05-30 15:25
starmer out by june 22 2026	3	$242	613	0	+613	Yes	-$242	06-21 16:44
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	3	$46	36	36	+0	Yes	+$13	06-13 12:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$45	32	32	+0	No	+$5	06-13 12:12
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	2	$40	32	32	+0	open	—	06-13 12:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$40	80	0	+80	No	+$40	05-25 15:29
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$39	33	33	+0	open	—	06-13 12:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$35	21	21	+0	No	+$5	04-25 15:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$24	15	15	+0	No	+$4	05-23 18:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 16:55 UTC	4	$21	17	16	+0	Up	+$1	03-27 17:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$20	2,857	0	+2,857	Yes	-$20	06-16 19:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 18:20 UTC	4	$16	16	16	+0	Down	-$3	03-27 18:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:25 UTC	4	$16	13	13	+0	Up	+$2	03-28 22:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 18:25 UTC	2	$15	11	11	+0	Up	+$5	03-27 18:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 02:55 UTC	2	$15	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	03-27 03:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 16:15 UTC	2	$14	9	9	+0	Down	+$4	03-27 16:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 17:55 UTC	3	$14	16	9	+7	Down	+$1	03-27 17:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 16:00 UTC	2	$14	9	9	+0	Down	+$4	03-27 16:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 19:10 UTC	3	$14	17	10	+8	Down	+$2	03-27 19:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 16:30 UTC	2	$14	10	9	+0	Down	+$4	03-27 16:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 16:45 UTC	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$4	03-27 16:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 19:15 UTC	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$4	03-27 19:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 19:00 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Down	+$3	03-27 19:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-03 13:36:15	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	1,184	65¢	$769	0x7db05d…
08-04 16:13:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,829	38¢	$695	0xc218a7…
08-04 16:03:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	1,077	64¢	$695	0xd5f5af…
08-02 13:25:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,633	43¢	$702	0x2743cc…
08-02 13:24:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	789	89¢	$702	0xfbe7b9…
07-17 13:11:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,592	49¢	$780	0xf6e8dd…
07-17 01:52:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 01:50 UTC	Up	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0x9abd5e…
07-17 01:50:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 01:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x247f92…
07-17 01:50:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 01:50 UTC	Down	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0xd172b8…
07-17 01:50:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 01:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xec9e9c…
07-17 01:47:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 01:45 UTC	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xbd1c5e…
07-17 01:46:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 01:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x154f0d…
07-16 18:13:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	652	46¢	$300	0x5b0822…
07-16 17:38:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	667	45¢	$300	0xbbef47…
07-11 21:27:02	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	SELL	323	48¢	$155	0x32fdc7…
07-11 15:14:29	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	BUY	323	62¢	$200	0x5492fb…
07-10 21:12:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,377	94¢	$1,294	0xf0b101…
07-07 11:54:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,108	40¢	$443	0x257f27…
07-06 17:02:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	1,077	57¢	$614	0x67b24d…
07-05 15:20:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	789	65¢	$513	0x56d2f5…
06-21 16:44:07	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	114	41¢	$47	0x9fcaa8…
06-21 16:43:17	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	210	43¢	$90	0x2173d4…
06-21 14:28:56	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	289	36¢	$105	0x888ccd…
06-18 00:12:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xe0350a…
06-16 19:18:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,857	1¢	$20	0x6c5cdc…
06-13 12:13:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	284	37¢	$105	0x0c61d6…
06-13 12:12:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	32	78¢	$25	0x0b9a0f…
06-13 12:11:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x20a64f…
06-13 12:11:51	Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	33	59¢	$19	0xc3e808…
06-13 12:11:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	82¢	$29	0x080395…
06-13 12:11:30	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	32	64¢	$20	0x5195dc…
06-13 12:11:21	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xe409d9…
06-13 12:11:19	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0x7e5096…
06-12 18:29:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	27	48¢	$13	0xda459e…
06-12 17:12:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	926	54¢	$500	0x7e724e…
06-11 21:54:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	279	57¢	$159	0xcb28fd…
06-01 17:41:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	145	62¢	$90	0x64898b…
05-30 15:26:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	526	57¢	$300	0xab1cba…
05-30 15:25:09	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	458	66¢	$300	0x958dfd…
05-29 18:13:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x49cc0c…
05-26 18:13:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x94e180…
05-26 17:36:43	Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x53cff5…
05-26 14:37:40	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xf95e36…
05-25 15:29:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x12a530…
05-23 23:52:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x6fc670…
05-23 18:46:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	15	88¢	$14	0x074d17…
05-17 23:50:15	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	32¢	$5	0x986767…
05-17 23:47:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x51bfa2…
05-16 16:03:27	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xd415ab…
05-03 14:30:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	60¢	$11	0x507d75…
04-25 15:57:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x062889…
04-25 15:57:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xb54f87…
04-25 15:56:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$20	0xa75eb1…
04-18 13:28:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0x60a1e5…
03-30 15:02:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x029272…
03-30 02:06:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 02:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x6cb284…
03-30 01:49:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 01:45 UTC	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x77a46f…
03-30 00:24:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x936412…
03-30 00:20:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 00:15 UTC	Down	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0xd642df…
03-30 00:16:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xe88110…
03-30 00:06:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 00:05 UTC	Down	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0xbf8927…
03-30 00:06:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 00:05 UTC	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x927b77…
03-29 20:14:46	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-29 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xc19562…
03-29 16:40:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xb03a3c…
03-29 16:40:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xbb0b4a…
03-29 16:11:52	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-29 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x92904f…
03-29 15:35:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:35 UTC	Up	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0xb31c42…
03-29 15:35:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x7aab24…
03-29 01:49:02	bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 9pm et	Up	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0x523f5e…
03-29 01:17:14	bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xad397f…
03-29 01:14:56	bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 8pm et	Up	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x528d21…
03-29 01:14:08	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-29 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x41156d…
03-29 00:36:48	bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x444940…
03-29 00:25:04	bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 8pm et	Up	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0x7c8f1d…
03-29 00:06:24	bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x4fb3e4…
03-29 00:00:14	will russia capture all of huliaipole by march 31	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x8347c2…
03-28 23:34:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xcc873e…
03-28 23:07:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 23:05 UTC	Up	SELL	0	20¢	$0	0xc864ab…
03-28 23:07:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 23:05 UTC	Up	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xef5d33…
03-28 23:05:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 23:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xa8b02f…
03-28 23:01:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:55 UTC	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x79bfec…
03-28 23:00:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x71f125…
03-28 22:56:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xc913d8…
03-28 22:52:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x12f093…
03-28 22:50:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:45 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x59639e…
03-28 22:48:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xf6b20e…
03-28 22:36:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:35 UTC	Down	SELL	0	56¢	$0	0x4f3c7d…
03-28 22:36:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:30 UTC	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$3	0xd2edbc…
03-28 22:35:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:35 UTC	Down	SELL	3	53¢	$2	0xf39920…
03-28 22:35:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x981955…
03-28 22:33:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x9ec860…
03-28 22:32:06	bitcoin up or down march 28 2026 6pm et	Down	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0xa62e0b…
03-28 22:29:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:25 UTC	Down	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0x000da4…
03-28 22:28:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:25 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xe12db0…
03-28 22:26:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:25 UTC	Down	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0xf39f1f…
03-28 22:25:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x72fac6…
03-28 22:16:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:15 UTC	Down	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0x2f1eea…
03-28 22:15:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xf7eef1…
03-28 22:13:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:10 UTC	Up	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0x21930e…
03-28 22:13:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x15aaa7…