Artistic-Mud — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$42.9K

Unrealized P&L

+$288

Hit rate

87.3%

Resolved

1,097

Trades

11,141

lifetime

Volume

$2.16M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$194

Open exposure

$4.26K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-25 23:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 129 days

Categories

Other

55% 75% +$31,073

Politics

41% 77% +$13,787

Crypto

3% 71% +$4,051

Tech

1% 78% -$6,414

Sports

1% 61% +$408

Pop-Culture

0% 25% -$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recession by end of 2026?	No		+4,000	$3,530	94¢	$3.7K	+$210	09-26 09:49
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No		+525	$437	98¢	$515	+$78	05-20 00:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	289	$241.0K	123,704	120,835	+2,869	No	+$813	02-02 14:39
will the us strike somalia next 656	87	$73.0K	36,677	36,779	-102	Yes	+$242	01-25 02:42
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	13	$51.6K	50,700	1,000	+49,700	No	+$121	01-04 13:37
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	191	$40.4K	32,010	18,867	+13,143	Yes	-$738	02-02 14:45
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	172	$38.5K	32,650	26,595	+6,055	No	+$1,227	01-30 04:48
will israel nuke iran by january 31	43	$30.7K	15,432	15,432	+0	No	+$31	01-23 04:42
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	131	$27.5K	15,664	12,785	+2,880	No	+$428	02-11 15:07
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	46	$26.5K	13,020	14,015	-995	No	+$136	01-23 21:58
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	122	$21.2K	17,844	17,165	+680	No	-$1,821	01-30 23:28
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	33	$21.0K	12,640	9,000	+3,640	No	+$132	01-31 12:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	49	$19.0K	12,532	8,566	+3,966	No	+$531	01-29 23:02
will the us strike iran next 433	44	$18.2K	12,451	5,900	+6,551	No	+$156	01-23 23:17
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	105	$17.7K	11,943	11,847	+96	No	+$706	01-30 14:51
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	27	$17.6K	8,975	9,067	-92	No	+$255	01-31 02:18
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	39	$17.2K	15,386	2,500	+12,886	Yes	+$545	01-28 10:55
earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times	17	$17.1K	10,925	6,641	+4,284	Yes	+$147	01-23 20:27
will zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the world economic forum	63	$17.1K	15,394	2,001	+13,393	No	+$332	01-23 23:40
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	109	$16.7K	10,530	10,530	+0	No	+$51	03-25 19:29
italy nordio reform referendum passes	90	$16.5K	11,473	11,555	-83	No	-$235	03-24 07:11
netanyahu out by march 31 854	23	$16.2K	7,888	8,888	-1,000	No	+$288	03-19 19:19
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	178	$15.4K	8,100	7,800	+300	No	+$11	02-05 16:48
will seguro win all of portugals districts	39	$14.4K	8,202	8,567	-365	Yes	+$1,027	02-08 20:34
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	49	$14.2K	8,194	6,900	+1,294	No	+$233	03-26 16:13
Will the US strike Somalia next?	56	$13.8K	8,494	5,831	+2,663	Yes	+$173	01-15 23:19
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	53	$13.6K	7,056	7,651	-595	Yes	+$970	01-28 18:12
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 400m and 440m by january 31	47	$13.5K	7,278	7,685	-406	No	+$94	01-28 15:21
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	19	$12.8K	13,029	0	+13,029	Yes	+$191	02-03 20:27
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	19	$12.7K	6,000	7,000	-1,000	No	+$151	01-28 11:55
us anti cartel operation on foreign soil by december 31	2	$12.0K	12,000	0	+12,000	Yes	+$14	01-02 23:36
will edgex launch a token in 2025	9	$12.0K	11,992	0	+11,992	Yes	+$24	01-01 14:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:36:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4,242	94¢	$4,009	0xa786bd…
10-25 23:36:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	310	95¢	$293	0x2954db…
10-25 23:35:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	12	94¢	$12	0x34d6f0…
09-26 09:49:29	US recession by end of 2026?	No	SELL	991	91¢	$902	0x09cc7e…
09-25 15:02:21	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	123	88¢	$108	0x7e5bbd…
09-25 15:02:20	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	877	88¢	$772	0xd3fa30…
09-25 14:46:05	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,877	89¢	$1,671	0x076672…
09-25 14:45:50	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	123	89¢	$109	0xc26b3b…
09-25 14:45:48	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,991	89¢	$1,772	0xa2d8c0…
09-21 09:09:59	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	4,000	100¢	$3,996	0x462967…
09-15 19:37:03	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	No	BUY	3,000	97¢	$2,910	0x9026eb…
06-15 16:07:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	730	99¢	$721	0xe9b93f…
06-15 15:34:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xe9eaa2…
06-15 15:34:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5ba8a3…
06-15 15:34:34	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xad1beb…
06-15 15:34:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1,154	99¢	$1,139	0xce5a3a…
06-15 15:29:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x00e6b6…
06-05 18:01:10	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	616	100¢	$614	0x6d27aa…
06-05 18:00:43	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0xff5bb2…
06-05 17:57:39	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0xadbf6c…
06-05 17:57:39	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9bd030…
06-05 17:57:39	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x77b385…
06-05 17:57:39	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3552e9…
06-05 17:57:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xf8471c…
06-05 17:57:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xcb3b9c…
06-05 17:57:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xafee70…
06-05 17:57:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x9d9470…
06-05 17:57:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x79240e…
06-05 17:57:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$30	0x4012b6…
06-05 17:57:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0x3758ac…
06-05 17:57:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x353b53…
06-05 17:57:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x330932…
06-05 17:57:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x0247a6…
06-05 17:57:36	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	950	100¢	$948	0x07d398…
05-29 10:29:52	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xcc0a1e…
05-29 10:29:52	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x947054…
05-29 10:29:52	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x92b0cc…
05-29 10:29:52	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	Yes	BUY	736	100¢	$733	0x551290…
05-29 10:29:52	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x00f51f…
05-29 09:05:14	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x269f7a…
05-29 09:04:44	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?	Yes	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0xe593e8…
05-29 07:44:53	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,916	0xff1bcf…
05-29 07:43:18	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,916	0x528ac6…
05-20 00:26:48	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0x59af1d…
05-19 20:13:56	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	68	93¢	$63	0x89222a…
05-19 14:35:38	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xe7db1b…
05-19 05:35:31	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	214	49¢	$105	0x2fe32c…
05-19 05:21:01	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	16	49¢	$8	0xa78bdd…
05-19 05:15:08	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$4	0x38626f…
05-19 05:10:12	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x1f3fe8…
05-19 04:34:46	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0x999daf…
05-19 04:22:19	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xc1a0b1…
05-19 04:21:30	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xd1b344…
05-19 04:05:32	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	39	49¢	$19	0x7aba4c…
05-19 03:36:15	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	42¢	$420	0x9f6426…
05-19 03:28:47	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x3c5e16…
05-19 01:41:20	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0xaeb59a…
05-19 01:09:00	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x368341…
05-19 00:56:04	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	12	49¢	$6	0xfb401b…
05-19 00:50:44	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	84	49¢	$41	0xc2b7bd…
05-19 00:48:05	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0x51802c…
05-19 00:26:37	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x2f6805…
05-18 23:44:09	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x42ea8d…
05-18 23:40:27	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	18	49¢	$9	0x25c4e2…
05-18 23:26:04	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0xe49b4a…
05-18 23:17:56	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xb8dafa…
05-18 21:54:57	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0x4f52e1…
05-18 21:39:17	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	12	49¢	$6	0xb936a2…
05-18 21:36:48	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x5ca93c…
05-18 20:43:05	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0x60ba4f…
05-18 19:39:56	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	278	6¢	$17	0x5820b5…
05-18 19:30:29	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	Yes	BUY	16	23¢	$4	0xfdc9d5…
05-18 19:21:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0xa84a4f…
05-14 06:00:08	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x2d4241…
05-14 05:32:42	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	40	49¢	$20	0xec916b…
05-14 05:09:46	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x7a87df…
05-14 05:09:34	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1,124	49¢	$555	0x0fbee6…
05-13 20:54:17	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	300	90¢	$269	0x73d249…
05-12 20:16:19	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	463	82¢	$380	0x1f491a…
05-12 20:15:50	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	207	87¢	$181	0xa3c6d3…
05-04 14:07:32	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	11	51¢	$6	0x9032f7…
05-04 10:28:14	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0xd258c7…
05-03 22:43:14	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x2aa23c…
05-03 22:42:52	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x3f8d0d…
05-03 20:32:52	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0x1edf9a…
05-03 20:30:00	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	360	84¢	$302	0x2dc3a3…
05-03 20:25:28	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x12a365…
05-03 20:24:50	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x718e6a…
05-03 14:28:36	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	84¢	$2	0x28e62c…
05-03 13:09:30	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	61	51¢	$31	0x74fd66…
05-03 08:44:46	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xa7251f…
05-03 08:44:26	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?	No	BUY	3,125	96¢	$3,015	0x3277ab…
05-03 08:43:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	300	96¢	$288	0xec89d2…
04-30 20:10:42	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	300	99¢	$298	0x594bf5…
04-30 20:10:12	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,988	0x35a49a…
04-30 14:37:44	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0xbd7dc1…
04-30 12:23:08	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	57	99¢	$56	0x108a6c…
04-30 10:36:42	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	194	99¢	$193	0x464cdc…
04-30 10:33:56	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	98¢	$293	0x306f99…
04-30 10:32:18	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	98¢	$293	0x704a61…