Realized P&L
+$408
Unrealized P&L
+$70
Hit rate
73.2%
Resolved
172
Trades
5,508
lifetime
Volume
$4.43K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$108
22 positions
First seen
2026-03-26
last 10-30 14:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 66 days
Categories
Politics
61% 59% +$294
Other
39% 50% +$114
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 175 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +3,932 $8 0¢ $16 +$8 10-25 06:43
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +927 -$4 1¢ $13 +$17 10-16 15:48
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +8,769 $19 0¢ $13 -$5 10-30 12:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes +95 $10 12¢ $11 +$0 10-21 16:44
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +6,786 $0 0¢ $10 +$10 10-26 04:39
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +1,310 $0 1¢ $10 +$10 10-28 22:30
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +1,619 -$14 0¢ $7 +$21 10-29 19:15
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +26 $0 24¢ $6 +$7 10-28 19:52
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes +161 -$5 4¢ $6 +$11 10-29 17:45
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +47 $7 6¢ $3 -$5 10-29 17:31
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +387 -$7 1¢ $3 +$9 10-30 14:23
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +1,582 $2 0¢ $2 +$0 10-30 12:22
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes +53 -$3 4¢ $2 +$5 10-24 21:58
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +400 $8 0¢ $2 -$6 10-27 23:29
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +500 $1 0¢ $1 $0 07-08 12:24
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +500 $1 0¢ $1 $0 07-14 02:42
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +500 $1 0¢ $1 $0 08-24 18:10
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +52 $4 1¢ $1 -$3 10-08 19:05
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +392 $1 0¢ $1 $0 07-17 03:13
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +334 $1 0¢ $1 -$1 07-14 02:31
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? Yes +6 $0 1¢ $0 $0 10-23 16:48
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Yes +10 $9 0¢ $0 -$9 10-13 18:40