Outrageous-Weeder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$174

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

92.7%

Resolved

Trades

149

lifetime

Volume

$17.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$114

Open exposure

$624

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-30 09:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Other

85% 93% -$214

Politics

11% 100% +$38

Crypto

4% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+400	$388	97¢	$388	+$0	10-09 08:03
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	No	+100	$98	100¢	$100	+$2	10-09 07:04
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	+60	$59	100¢	$60	+$1	10-09 07:06
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+50	$46	94¢	$47	+$2	07-20 09:52
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	No	+29	$28	99¢	$29	+$0	10-09 07:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	3	$850	472	472	+0	No	-$31	05-12 08:58
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or below on May 12?	1	$767	769	0	+769	No	+$2	05-12 10:09
Will the lowest temperature in London be 4°C on May 13?	1	$653	654	0	+654	No	+$1	05-13 09:59
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	5	$601	609	0	+609	No	+$8	01-30 12:29
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	1	$584	586	0	+586	No	+$2	09-26 13:11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	3	$453	300	200	+100	No	+$11	04-17 12:49
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 16?	2	$397	398	0	+398	No	+$1	05-15 13:35
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C or below on June 27?	1	$390	392	0	+392	No	+$2	06-25 08:21
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$388	400	0	+400	open	—	10-09 08:03
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 16?	2	$387	388	0	+388	No	+$1	05-15 13:35
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	1	$317	318	0	+318	No	+$1	05-13 09:56
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$300	306	0	+306	No	+$6	03-29 08:09
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9?	2	$297	300	0	+300	Yes	+$3	06-09 12:49
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14?	1	$293	294	0	+294	No	+$1	06-13 11:02
iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	1	$290	296	0	+296	No	+$5	07-20 10:02
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 20?	1	$285	285	0	+285	No	+$0	07-20 11:15
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16?	2	$275	276	0	+276	No	+$1	06-15 09:17
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27?	1	$251	252	0	+252	Yes	+$1	05-27 08:45
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?	1	$249	250	0	+250	No	+$1	05-25 09:04
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 300m and 350m by August 31?	1	$242	243	0	+243	No	+$1	08-20 07:55
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 16?	1	$235	235	0	+235	No	+$0	05-15 13:46
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 16?	1	$234	236	0	+236	No	+$2	05-16 07:56
Trump out as President by September 30?	2	$208	210	0	+210	No	+$2	09-14 03:18
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	1	$199	200	0	+200	No	+$1	09-26 11:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$199	214	0	+214	No	+$15	04-17 02:20
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of march	1	$199	200	0	+200	No	+$1	03-04 07:00
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12?	1	$199	200	0	+200	No	+$1	05-12 10:08
will silver si hit high 200 by end of march	1	$199	200	0	+200	No	+$1	03-04 03:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August?	1	$198	199	0	+199	No	+$1	08-27 02:26
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	1	$198	200	0	+200	No	+$2	05-25 08:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:24:03	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in October?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x5219b5…
10-29 16:22:38	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in October?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x9876d5…
10-29 16:22:35	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in October?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xa3be5f…
10-29 16:22:32	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in October?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xfed747…
10-29 16:22:31	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in October?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x78927c…
10-29 13:11:59	Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in October?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x1641dd…
10-29 13:11:41	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in October?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5ad6d8…
10-29 13:11:02	Will BNB dip to $600 in October?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0xfaf308…
10-29 01:04:52	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in October?	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x8364a7…
10-09 08:17:03	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in October?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xdf6c98…
10-09 08:14:54	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 in October?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x406507…
10-09 08:14:33	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in October?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x7821d1…
10-09 08:12:01	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in October?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x038dbf…
10-09 08:03:28	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	400	97¢	$388	0x71fde8…
10-09 07:13:42	Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xbefe8c…
10-09 07:11:37	Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xbcbfee…
10-09 07:10:03	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x789182…
10-09 07:06:42	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0xfbb8d0…
10-09 07:06:13	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x5c7312…
10-09 07:06:00	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xa47829…
10-09 07:04:30	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x7f0ace…
10-09 07:04:10	Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x89cae2…
09-26 13:11:06	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	586	100¢	$584	0xf072ef…
09-26 11:24:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x384bb2…
09-14 03:18:00	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x099d33…
09-08 09:58:06	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x27ee8d…
09-04 02:25:37	Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on September 4?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xc8262f…
09-04 02:25:27	Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on September 4?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x9a63bd…
09-04 02:25:04	Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 6°C or below on September 4?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xc826a3…
09-04 02:24:43	Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on September 4?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x369280…
09-04 02:24:10	Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on September 4?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xc3fd98…
09-04 02:23:52	Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 6°C or below on September 4?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xe43143…
08-27 02:26:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August?	No	BUY	199	100¢	$198	0x55ef62…
08-27 02:25:06	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xd9aff2…
08-27 02:23:57	greater tunb island no longer under iranian control by september 30	No	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0xdd176f…
08-27 02:20:09	Will XRP reach $2.80 in August?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x550b5d…
08-25 09:41:21	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 15°C or below on August 25?	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x9523cf…
08-25 09:40:36	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on August 25?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xc909d2…
08-25 09:40:24	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	146	98¢	$144	0x189288…
08-20 07:56:31	will xauusd dip to 3900 in august 2026	No	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0x7a5322…
08-20 07:55:46	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 300m and 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	243	100¢	$242	0x09b11b…
08-20 07:54:30	megaquake by august 31 20260729155103111	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x558796…
08-20 07:47:18	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by august 31 2026	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0xabbdbe…
08-20 07:43:01	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xe72fac…
08-20 07:41:19	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x26ce2b…
08-20 07:39:33	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 20?	No	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0xe9e01e…
08-20 07:39:33	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 20?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x8f5258…
08-20 07:36:57	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 20?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0xa68346…
08-20 07:36:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0x13f0fa…
08-20 07:30:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 20?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0xa66637…
08-08 14:33:12	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742050	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0xcd80be…
08-07 09:13:27	abu musa island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720011758216	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0xf5eb3f…
08-07 09:13:06	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by august 31	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xabe83a…
08-07 09:07:58	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742050	No	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x456af2…
08-07 09:07:57	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742050	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0xe203ab…
08-07 09:07:36	will a european country take military action on iran by august 31 20260720005529606	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x9f1cd6…
07-20 11:18:46	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 21?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xd5155a…
07-20 11:15:46	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on July 21?	No	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0xebfa1d…
07-20 11:15:19	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 20?	No	BUY	285	100¢	$285	0xbf54ec…
07-20 10:20:36	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xcbcc6d…
07-20 10:19:22	will a european country take military action on iran by july 31 20260720005529605	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0xcd12ef…
07-20 10:02:51	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	BUY	296	98¢	$290	0x38f115…
07-20 10:00:18	will italy send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952744	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xc1f2f9…
07-20 09:52:24	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x77d27b…
07-20 09:48:57	will wti reach 115 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0229c6…
07-20 09:44:03	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x27009d…
07-01 03:15:08	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 1?	No	BUY	195	99¢	$193	0xe63bbd…
06-30 14:11:16	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	117	99¢	$115	0x1d0d98…
06-30 09:46:50	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x19b04f…
06-25 08:21:23	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C or below on June 27?	No	BUY	392	100¢	$390	0x9a0a65…
06-15 09:17:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16?	No	BUY	197	100¢	$196	0x669f5b…
06-15 07:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xe54d91…
06-15 07:26:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16?	No	BUY	199	99¢	$198	0x38ed10…
06-15 07:26:06	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x0097c5…
06-15 07:25:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x15504c…
06-15 07:24:25	Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x092863…
06-13 11:12:18	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14?	No	BUY	114	99¢	$113	0x7cfd67…
06-13 11:08:21	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x2a4437…
06-13 11:03:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14?	No	BUY	137	100¢	$136	0x97dd0d…
06-13 11:02:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14?	No	BUY	294	100¢	$293	0x31dc42…
06-10 12:54:34	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 11?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x9e9d22…
06-10 12:52:09	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 11?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x83f051…
06-10 12:50:30	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 11?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xadbd23…
06-10 12:49:51	Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 11?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x8c0422…
06-10 12:45:33	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 11?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x02bb19…
06-10 12:45:18	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x6d0cd9…
06-09 12:57:03	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 10?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x32ec5e…
06-09 12:51:28	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x215561…
06-09 12:49:33	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x47e86a…
06-09 12:49:24	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xcbaaac…
06-09 12:48:45	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x1be3d8…
06-09 12:48:30	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x0feac6…
05-28 13:56:02	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xe973dd…
05-28 13:54:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x3416ae…
05-28 13:52:30	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x060f83…
05-27 08:45:11	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	252	100¢	$251	0x4dd3d4…
05-25 09:04:55	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x45e45b…
05-25 09:02:04	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?	No	BUY	155	99¢	$154	0x3074ce…
05-25 09:01:57	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?	No	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x076444…
05-25 09:01:22	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xecfa05…