Mysterious-Fright — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$21

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

126

Trades

159

lifetime

Volume

$2.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$91

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-29 17:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

45% 96% +$6

Politics

40% 100% +$15

Crypto

14% 100% +$1

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes		+92	$89	99¢	$91	+$2	10-29 17:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$197	158	72	+86	Yes	+$12	10-25 23:13
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$160	86	86	+0	open	—	10-28 11:26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	3	$141	84	62	+22	No	+$1	08-28 07:30
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	4	$96	48	48	+0	No	+$0	09-01 07:38
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$89	92	0	+92	open	—	10-29 17:45
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	2	$81	44	44	+0	open	—	10-20 22:21
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	1	$73	73	0	+73	No	+$0	10-06 04:26
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	1	$71	71	0	+71	Yes	+$0	09-22 13:46
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	1	$70	70	0	+70	Yes	+$0	09-03 19:45
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	1	$66	66	0	+66	Yes	+$0	08-10 08:21
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	1	$65	65	0	+65	No	+$0	07-31 23:11
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$65	67	0	+67	No	+$2	08-05 07:55
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$64	64	0	+64	No	+$0	08-15 18:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?	1	$63	64	0	+64	No	+$1	08-13 21:02
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$62	62	0	+62	Yes	+$0	08-20 21:33
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	1	$56	57	0	+57	No	+$0	09-16 00:19
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	09-15 04:53
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	09-27 10:16
Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	5	$45	23	23	+0	No	+$0	08-31 15:59
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	06-30 13:59
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	05-31 10:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	2	$35	17	17	+0	No	+$0	08-28 19:10
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	05-16 08:45
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	1	$32	33	0	+33	Yes	+$1	10-13 12:56
will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	07-01 00:07
will spy dip to 720 in july 2026	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	07-31 14:00
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	02-25 03:43
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	05-29 12:35
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 in August?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	08-28 19:23
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	06-26 12:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:45:01	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	92	97¢	$89	0xf909db…
10-28 11:26:28	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	86	96¢	$83	0xc90f45…
10-27 21:59:59	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	86	89¢	$77	0x849363…
10-25 23:13:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	86	87¢	$75	0x6f4308…
10-25 22:08:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	430	0¢	$2	0x708ba8…
10-23 22:39:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	59	0¢	$0	0x83c342…
10-23 22:39:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	85	0¢	$0	0x1df99e…
10-23 22:39:33	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	90	0¢	$0	0x6879aa…
10-23 22:39:33	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	140	0¢	$0	0x361514…
10-23 22:39:33	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x2e4b6d…
10-23 22:39:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x255c54…
10-20 22:21:50	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	44	93¢	$41	0x094a1e…
10-13 12:56:20	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0x98495e…
10-10 06:50:21	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	44	92¢	$40	0xe3d49e…
10-06 04:26:09	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	73	100¢	$73	0x67da22…
10-05 13:28:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	72	85¢	$61	0x67986c…
10-05 01:04:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	72	84¢	$60	0xced4b7…
09-30 19:18:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1865c9…
09-27 10:16:14	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x061a96…
09-27 08:48:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x329852…
09-27 00:01:29	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xacb686…
09-25 10:30:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x961ef8…
09-22 13:46:09	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	71	100¢	$71	0xe660ba…
09-18 03:22:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x36ca26…
09-16 00:19:58	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	57	100¢	$56	0xae4817…
09-15 04:53:46	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x120a53…
09-14 07:04:00	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x734e94…
09-11 01:52:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0710fc…
09-03 19:45:12	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xfaf645…
09-01 07:38:16	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xface8e…
09-01 05:44:25	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x3e4716…
08-31 16:32:10	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x752e54…
08-31 15:59:37	Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x1b3e92…
08-31 14:49:51	Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x70ab05…
08-31 05:48:46	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x9ae98e…
08-31 04:09:57	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x9145a9…
08-31 01:54:51	Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe1b3b4…
08-30 10:46:31	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe6f8ce…
08-30 02:29:58	Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x2eff33…
08-28 19:23:58	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 in August?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x64a4cb…
08-28 19:10:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x6cbf19…
08-28 07:30:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x9c5f5c…
08-27 03:53:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xfb4478…
08-26 23:00:24	Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xe62304…
08-25 14:11:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	62	96¢	$60	0xe790cd…
08-24 07:38:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	96¢	$60	0x94a91d…
08-22 21:41:36	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x27954a…
08-21 22:40:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x695285…
08-20 21:33:46	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	62	100¢	$62	0x91f6d7…
08-17 12:01:54	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5d9d01…
08-17 03:39:55	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xc3a672…
08-15 18:15:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	64	99¢	$64	0x1ce15a…
08-13 21:02:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	64	99¢	$63	0xc5df70…
08-13 13:17:07	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x86a94d…
08-10 08:21:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x3c3465…
08-06 19:54:12	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d109f…
08-05 07:55:06	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	67	97¢	$65	0xe0d548…
08-04 19:54:54	will ethereum dip to 900 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x40ca94…
07-31 23:11:33	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x053673…
07-31 14:00:03	will spy dip to 720 in july 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x51232f…
07-31 02:29:41	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0878ca…
07-30 15:20:45	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026 367	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc88145…
07-29 23:54:00	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x66fe6b…
07-29 13:19:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8895c9…
07-29 11:16:38	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x77e1a2…
07-29 06:50:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x162aae…
07-29 06:44:27	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in July?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x334252…
07-29 05:31:48	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xdcb4c5…
07-28 22:48:34	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc252b4…
07-27 08:33:24	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcb0d93…
07-26 19:40:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x86d71b…
07-26 04:04:55	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4e008f…
07-26 01:38:12	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb1a419…
07-25 10:26:54	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4c2533…
07-22 01:32:10	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd2faa6…
07-21 20:45:46	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x49e4f7…
07-01 00:07:58	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb1e789…
06-30 13:59:13	Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x0eb260…
06-29 11:40:44	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x61d946…
06-27 18:56:01	Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x23f971…
06-26 12:00:47	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xe94061…
05-31 10:24:59	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x4581af…
05-29 12:35:52	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x6d58f3…
05-24 13:01:46	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc65374…
05-21 00:15:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x18aab2…
05-20 00:07:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6c2697…
05-16 08:45:59	Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xda1d6a…
05-13 16:37:28	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x78c010…
05-12 08:58:43	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4d1c9c…
05-10 07:45:57	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x489a9f…
05-09 23:38:34	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x9206c0…
05-08 04:21:19	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9661b8…
05-07 13:45:30	Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x45c190…
05-06 02:12:28	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf42292…
05-05 13:21:52	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xd1c0e1…
05-05 08:24:54	Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb3372a…
05-05 05:19:56	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x8593f6…
04-27 11:45:20	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfb0b63…
04-26 10:32:18	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x965666…
04-23 12:14:02	Will Solana reach $130 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x08f584…