Short-Convention — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$57.1K

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

97.8%

Resolved

37,130

Trades

92,171

lifetime

Volume

$32.6M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$354

Open exposure

$973

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 01:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 300 days

Categories

Other

83% 100% +$43,442

Politics

7% 94% +$13,339

Crypto

6% 99% +$8,412

Sports

4% 98% -$7,402

Pop-Culture

0% 95% -$754

Tech

0% 83% +$41

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 1043 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	Yes		+978	$977	100¢	$973	-$4	10-27 02:41
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No		+0	$5	98¢	$0	-$5	05-07 22:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	132	$521.5K	341,656	182,325	+159,331	No	+$606	06-04 00:04
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	52	$383.9K	384,313	0	+384,313	Up	+$384	10-08 00:13
will ethereum reach 2250 by december 31 2026 from june 8	3	$374.2K	378,000	0	+378,000	Yes	+$3,780	08-19 21:06
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13?	2	$304.7K	305,000	0	+305,000	Yes	+$305	09-13 14:54
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	3	$297.7K	298,000	0	+298,000	No	+$298	07-06 21:05
spx opens up or down on august 3 2026	271	$256.5K	256,780	0	+256,780	Up	+$260	08-03 19:31
cbb txtech ala 2026 03 22	2	$245.8K	248,260	248,260	+0	Alabama Crimson Tide	-$2,483	03-21 21:14
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 1?	156	$233.1K	233,342	0	+233,342	Up	+$233	10-01 19:13
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	175	$229.3K	142,428	112,570	+29,858	No	+$479	01-08 03:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	216	$215.6K	181,264	52,500	+128,764	Yes	+$5,850	06-17 23:32
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	118	$208.3K	208,818	0	+208,818	No	+$522	07-11 23:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	34	$204.5K	112,373	93,036	+19,337	No	+$761	06-01 21:23
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	2,908	$190.8K	178,988	12,000	+166,988	No	+$199	08-01 18:58
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 0.5	10	$190.5K	192,004	0	+192,004	Under	+$1,533	09-01 05:16
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	9	$182.3K	91,349	91,336	+13	No	+$194	10-22 23:24
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	27	$179.8K	180,000	0	+180,000	No	+$180	06-29 23:16
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 728 921 637 263	82	$168.6K	104,329	65,000	+39,329	Yes	+$419	03-11 07:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	29	$141.4K	96,000	46,000	+50,000	Yes	+$233	04-08 12:58
Will Leylah Fernandez be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	2	$138.3K	138,846	0	+138,846	No	+$561	06-29 17:20
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	25	$137.5K	95,768	42,184	+53,584	No	+$217	05-01 00:08
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	10	$131.2K	129,413	2,000	+127,413	Yes	+$171	09-15 19:42
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev	29	$128.2K	128,510	0	+128,510	Alexander Zverev	+$292	04-29 01:20
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	43	$125.8K	63,003	63,003	+0	No	+$32	04-06 16:53
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	15	$122.5K	122,623	0	+122,623	Yes	+$123	05-30 18:57
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	168	$112.0K	72,326	72,326	+0	Yes	+$336	02-28 03:41
col1 foc adp 2026 03 24 total 2pt5	6	$111.0K	111,834	0	+111,834	Over	+$833	03-25 03:08
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	20	$109.9K	110,000	0	+110,000	No	+$110	07-19 21:31
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	2	$108.7K	108,783	0	+108,783	No	+$116	05-26 12:58
atp holmgre oki 2026 03 29	4	$106.0K	106,107	0	+106,107	Yuto Oki	+$107	03-30 11:30
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	24	$101.9K	101,475	1,475	+100,000	Yes	+$261	07-07 19:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 02:56:54	Will CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xb5c7e1…
10-27 02:46:38	Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x7ff696…
10-27 02:45:45	Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	351	100¢	$350	0x2bf7fa…
10-27 02:41:36	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	466	100¢	$465	0xfb4cb4…
10-27 02:40:33	Spread: CA Nacional Potosí (-3.5)	Club Guabirá	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa67ea4…
10-27 02:32:15	Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 212.5	Under	BUY	1,374	100¢	$1,373	0x262927…
10-27 02:22:27	CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	165	100¢	$164	0x863bd0…
10-27 02:18:41	Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x8ef641…
10-27 02:18:20	Jaguares de Córdoba FC vs. Llaneros FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x069936…
10-27 02:12:51	Will Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario end in a draw?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x556803…
10-27 02:08:26	Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	482	100¢	$481	0x0c7f9f…
10-27 02:02:32	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	213	100¢	$213	0xcee566…
10-27 02:01:50	Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x154ab8…
10-27 02:01:35	Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	108	100¢	$107	0x4366c9…
10-27 02:01:00	Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xaf9ff2…
10-27 01:59:53	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	266	100¢	$266	0x02a32c…
10-27 01:59:45	Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcdf1c9…
10-27 01:59:14	Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x230f83…
10-27 01:59:09	Exact Score: Club Bolívar 2 - 2 FC Universitario?	No	BUY	193	100¢	$193	0x419ea4…
10-27 01:59:03	Will Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario end in a draw?	No	BUY	179	100¢	$179	0xf37d99…
10-27 01:58:48	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0e2bd8…
10-27 01:58:18	Will Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario end in a draw?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xaafa49…
10-27 01:57:41	Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x97eaba…
10-27 01:47:51	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x92c205…
10-27 01:41:42	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xade4c7…
10-27 01:38:39	EC Juventude vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: Clube Náutico Capibaribe O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x452353…
10-27 01:37:24	Exact Score: América FC 2 - 1 Cuiabá EC?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd9a749…
10-27 01:04:06	Will CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?	No	BUY	137	100¢	$136	0x15e4b8…
10-27 01:03:12	Will CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xfdd689…
10-27 01:03:12	Will CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$139	0x5d59c2…
10-27 01:01:14	Will CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x25d8a2…
10-27 01:01:03	Jaguares de Córdoba FC vs. Llaneros FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x13bcfd…
10-27 01:01:00	Will CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xb93602…
10-27 01:00:36	Will CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6d4dcf…
10-27 01:00:26	Will CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x73954d…
10-27 01:00:24	Will CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0x787b14…
10-27 00:25:48	Spread: América FC (-1.5)	Cuiabá EC	BUY	215	100¢	$215	0x0dd3c0…
10-27 00:25:24	Spread: Cuiabá EC (-4.5)	América FC	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd2f3ae…
10-27 00:25:24	Spread: América FC (-4.5)	Cuiabá EC	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x11e31e…
10-27 00:25:23	Spread: América FC (-1.5)	Cuiabá EC	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe37731…
10-27 00:25:23	Spread: América FC (-5.5)	Cuiabá EC	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5d3ec9…
10-27 00:07:12	CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: CF Universidad de Chile O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x17d8d1…
10-27 00:01:35	Exact Score: CA Unión 3 - 2 Estudiantes de La Plata?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x8f1686…
10-26 23:58:54	Exact Score: CA Unión 2 - 1 Estudiantes de La Plata?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x3dd966…
10-26 23:57:38	Exact Score: CA Unión 2 - 1 Estudiantes de La Plata?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x88c373…
10-26 23:55:42	Exact Score: CA Unión 2 - 1 Estudiantes de La Plata?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x855afa…
10-26 23:55:42	Exact Score: CA Unión 3 - 1 Estudiantes de La Plata?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x5ac06e…
10-26 23:55:41	Spread: CA Unión (-4.5)	Estudiantes de La Plata	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd12a15…
10-26 23:50:02	CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	272	100¢	$271	0xd13393…
10-26 23:18:24	Will Montpellier HSC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x0ace3f…
10-26 23:10:50	Will US Boulogne Côte d'Opale win on 2026-10-26?	No	BUY	3,003	100¢	$3,000	0x2f86ca…
10-26 23:04:20	CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x23afea…
10-26 23:04:18	Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc0d704…
10-26 23:01:53	Exact Score: CF Universidad de Chile 5 - 1 Everton de Viña del Mar?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xd69c5e…
10-26 22:58:59	CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x524e77…
10-26 22:58:39	CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xb4ed9d…
10-26 22:58:14	CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe38b7f…
10-26 22:58:08	CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	146	100¢	$146	0x830dfb…
10-26 22:57:30	CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe316a3…
10-26 22:57:30	Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-2.5)	CF Universidad de Chile	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xe0d9c8…
10-26 22:57:30	Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-3.5)	Everton de Viña del Mar	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xce71f9…
10-26 22:57:30	CF Universidad de Chile vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	396	100¢	$395	0x4a0596…
10-26 22:54:17	Exact Score: SCU Torreense 2 - 1 Amarante FC?	No	BUY	1,107	100¢	$1,106	0xf4a7b0…
10-26 22:53:17	Exact Score: US Boulogne Côte d'Opale 2 - 1 Stade de Reims?	No	BUY	317	100¢	$316	0x894efb…
10-26 22:53:11	Exact Score: US Boulogne Côte d'Opale 2 - 2 Stade de Reims?	No	BUY	259	100¢	$258	0x09b56c…
10-26 22:52:44	Exact Score: US Boulogne Côte d'Opale 1 - 2 Stade de Reims?	No	BUY	1,162	100¢	$1,161	0x91c190…
10-26 22:46:05	Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x952ba7…
10-26 22:43:14	Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	180	100¢	$180	0xd650c1…
10-26 22:42:56	Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x76d1a7…
10-26 22:42:03	CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa SC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x178a17…
10-26 22:41:26	SCU Torreense vs. Amarante FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x252320…
10-26 22:41:21	Spread: CD Tecnico Universitario (-3.5)	Mushuc Runa SC	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb3fdd6…
10-26 22:41:02	Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf65871…
10-26 22:40:24	Spread: Amarante FC (-1.5)	SCU Torreense	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1d1013…
10-26 22:40:23	Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x2a5721…
10-26 22:34:44	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x12af77…
10-26 22:27:18	CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa SC: CD Tecnico Universitario O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xe762c4…
10-26 22:27:18	CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa SC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xe55162…
10-26 22:27:18	CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa SC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x99e9b3…
10-26 22:27:18	CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa SC: CD Tecnico Universitario O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x5cb775…
10-26 22:27:18	CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa SC: CD Tecnico Universitario O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x4d22b2…
10-26 22:27:18	CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa SC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x0aabff…
10-26 22:26:50	CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa SC: CD Tecnico Universitario O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3c8083…
10-26 22:26:50	CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa SC: CD Tecnico Universitario O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	1,020	100¢	$1,019	0x2589d2…
10-26 22:26:48	CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa SC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd1e3dd…
10-26 22:15:30	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdcce0b…
10-26 22:09:15	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	379	100¢	$379	0xaaf04a…
10-26 22:07:42	Will Montpellier HSC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x9b899a…
10-26 22:04:33	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa50851…
10-26 22:04:29	CA Defensores de Belgrano vs. CA San Miguel: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5899ab…
10-26 22:04:18	Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-10-26?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xa9fe13…
10-26 22:03:53	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5f6704…
10-26 22:01:12	Spread: Montpellier HSC (-1.5)	Red Star FC	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xee9720…
10-26 22:00:38	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x61a420…
10-26 21:59:39	Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-10-26?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x3bd13c…
10-26 21:59:26	FC Andorra vs. Burgos CF: FC Andorra O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x2856c7…
10-26 21:56:47	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6a3e5e…
10-26 21:56:21	FC Crotone vs. S.S.D. Casarano Calcio: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xffb1f4…
10-26 21:54:23	Spread: Galatasaray SK (-2.5)	Fenerbahçe SK	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7b214c…
10-26 21:51:15	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xb51a6e…