Sticky-Closing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11.3K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.21K

Hit rate

93.5%

Resolved

Trades

4,140

lifetime

Volume

$1.48M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$357

Open exposure

$12.0K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-20 18:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

48% 100% +$11,855

Politics

36% 0% $-24

Tech

16% — —

Sports

1% 50% $-522

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 95 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	+14,947	$12,926	78¢	$11.7K	$-1,267	07-20 07:55
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	+212	$178	99¢	$209	+$31	07-20 18:34
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	+431	$56	18¢	$80	+$24	07-16 15:39
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	-19	$-3	12¢	$-2	+$0	06-20 14:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	173	$76.5K	52,048	40,760	+11,287	No	+$11,855	04-30 00:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	68	$67.3K	37,105	39,743	-2,638	open	—	05-23 16:50
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	43	$65.0K	26,450	47,884	-21,434	open	—	06-12 16:55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	99	$48.1K	26,951	27,971	-1,019	open	—	05-23 18:05
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	27	$38.5K	21,543	21,543	+0	open	—	06-19 17:05
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	29	$37.6K	19,523	22,468	-2,945	open	—	05-23 20:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	29	$37.4K	26,316	24,063	+2,253	open	—	06-12 19:47
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	71	$33.8K	20,500	22,823	-2,323	open	—	04-12 19:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	31	$30.1K	33,580	19,783	+13,797	open	—	06-12 19:32
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	46	$28.9K	15,908	15,908	+0	open	—	03-27 19:47
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	26	$28.0K	27,223	6,910	+20,313	open	—	07-20 07:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	32	$22.4K	13,338	14,128	-790	open	—	03-23 14:46
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	48	$21.1K	14,615	14,868	-254	open	—	03-06 12:18
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	167	$20.6K	11,494	16,781	-5,287	open	—	05-23 16:38
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	32	$19.6K	18,165	18,165	+0	open	—	04-09 15:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	33	$19.6K	9,092	11,292	-2,200	open	—	05-09 17:10
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	37	$18.9K	31,561	0	+31,561	open	—	07-14 11:16
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	17	$18.4K	10,842	10,842	+0	open	—	07-04 19:56
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	39	$18.4K	9,699	9,699	+0	open	—	03-06 14:19
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	62	$17.9K	9,658	12,363	-2,705	open	—	04-15 11:21
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	72	$17.7K	9,355	10,397	-1,042	open	—	04-26 14:00
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	36	$17.6K	12,487	8,975	+3,512	open	—	07-20 07:31
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	48	$16.8K	9,053	10,475	-1,422	open	—	05-31 19:40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	31	$16.8K	7,577	9,956	-2,380	open	—	03-31 10:29
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	39	$16.3K	11,703	11,703	+0	open	—	03-23 15:05
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	17	$15.4K	8,309	8,309	+0	open	—	03-11 09:45
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	196	$14.8K	9,434	10,549	-1,115	open	—	04-16 04:19
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	16	$13.8K	11,280	5,287	+5,993	open	—	07-19 12:53
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	13	$13.7K	7,366	7,366	+0	open	—	03-14 21:37
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	28	$13.2K	14,299	0	+14,299	open	—	07-17 19:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 18:34:54	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x1da4c2…
07-20 15:13:51	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	SELL	764	99¢	$756	0xcbef0d…
07-20 07:55:48	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	2,905	78¢	$2,266	0xd88104…
07-20 07:31:52	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	68	82¢	$56	0xfd59c0…
07-20 06:21:15	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	96	82¢	$79	0x55a4c1…
07-19 23:26:04	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	1,006	82¢	$825	0x4616f6…
07-19 20:12:24	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xf85c7f…
07-19 17:59:28	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	29	78¢	$23	0x5292dd…
07-19 17:54:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	1,171	78¢	$913	0x6c9c7c…
07-19 17:20:15	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	114	82¢	$94	0x56a1ce…
07-19 15:53:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	2,343	77¢	$1,804	0x8b7e0e…
07-19 15:50:37	israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	No	BUY	1,600	73¢	$1,166	0x8f7b15…
07-19 15:46:58	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	BUY	1,098	92¢	$1,010	0xb213e8…
07-19 15:46:12	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	BUY	1,507	90¢	$1,356	0xb54163…
07-19 12:53:06	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	1,200	96¢	$1,147	0xdf2cb4…
07-19 12:29:21	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	463	77¢	$357	0xabb5eb…
07-19 10:36:55	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	4,683	80¢	$3,754	0x49ecde…
07-18 20:10:42	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	1,925	99¢	$1,904	0x7a04f9…
07-18 17:28:34	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	36	99¢	$35	0xe528e0…
07-18 16:34:12	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	490	99¢	$485	0x9f9448…
07-17 19:26:48	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	343	88¢	$302	0xa6f4b4…
07-17 19:21:21	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	111	88¢	$98	0xad7fef…
07-17 09:44:52	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	484	88¢	$427	0x4fa097…
07-17 09:40:22	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	51	88¢	$45	0xe03321…
07-17 09:40:21	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	65	88¢	$57	0x94c52d…
07-17 09:04:18	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	900	90¢	$813	0x40982b…
07-17 07:48:33	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0x215275…
07-17 06:14:06	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	2,424	83¢	$2,012	0xac4e79…
07-17 04:53:28	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	8	97¢	$7	0x4fbf75…
07-17 04:53:25	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	2,558	98¢	$2,495	0xdf15fc…
07-16 22:04:56	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	600	80¢	$480	0x3a5c28…
07-16 16:23:11	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	983	83¢	$816	0x2feeb2…
07-16 15:56:53	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	317	83¢	$263	0x07e07f…
07-16 15:39:07	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	BUY	82	13¢	$11	0xf80a4a…
07-16 15:26:35	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0xcb2cfb…
07-16 15:13:20	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0x85fa6f…
07-16 15:00:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	605	83¢	$502	0x6792ed…
07-16 14:38:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	74	78¢	$58	0x1b5603…
07-16 12:44:05	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	650	80¢	$520	0x09a778…
07-16 11:59:40	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	105	81¢	$85	0xe47655…
07-16 11:59:05	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1,796	92¢	$1,652	0xafeda4…
07-16 11:58:53	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0x687d00…
07-16 11:57:32	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	128	81¢	$103	0x041b10…
07-16 11:50:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	400	82¢	$328	0xf42d6b…
07-16 11:50:40	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	400	83¢	$332	0x8f8296…
07-16 11:50:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0xf69814…
07-16 11:50:20	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	210	85¢	$178	0xd36217…
07-16 11:50:20	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	190	85¢	$162	0xa6ed78…
07-16 03:02:50	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x36463d…
07-16 03:02:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	71	86¢	$61	0xeb1531…
07-16 03:02:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	22	86¢	$19	0x3697d4…
07-16 03:02:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	110	86¢	$95	0x35461b…
07-16 03:02:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x2e160e…
07-16 03:02:47	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	157	86¢	$135	0xf5a385…
07-16 03:02:47	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xa3c78a…
07-16 03:02:47	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	15	86¢	$13	0x49ef01…
07-15 22:26:37	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x53e549…
07-15 21:44:49	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	BUY	217	13¢	$28	0x96a157…
07-15 12:01:29	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	463	87¢	$403	0xdb219c…
07-15 10:14:37	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	495	87¢	$431	0x1c9015…
07-14 21:55:52	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	42	87¢	$36	0xf85ff7…
07-14 12:11:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	188	86¢	$162	0x0bc130…
07-14 11:16:46	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	BUY	1,000	61¢	$610	0x0d5352…
07-14 09:29:19	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	2,461	98¢	$2,415	0xcae277…
07-14 08:37:41	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	135	92¢	$124	0x62bd9c…
07-14 08:37:37	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	250	92¢	$230	0x97d752…
07-14 06:23:52	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	555	92¢	$510	0x0dc722…
07-14 06:00:26	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	88	92¢	$81	0x01faba…
07-14 06:00:13	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	371	92¢	$341	0x8e55dd…
07-13 23:58:02	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x69ec92…
07-13 23:09:37	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	SELL	211	80¢	$169	0x9d6e00…
07-13 22:08:32	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x181259…
07-13 21:52:02	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xeed669…
07-13 21:48:20	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	125	92¢	$115	0xbbcdbf…
07-13 21:30:08	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	38	92¢	$34	0x9d731c…
07-13 21:28:22	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	1,250	92¢	$1,150	0xcaacc3…
07-13 21:22:59	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	124	86¢	$107	0x71ee18…
07-13 20:38:13	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	2,300	92¢	$2,116	0x262343…
07-13 20:17:47	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x678869…
07-13 20:17:44	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x9ee65e…
07-13 20:16:56	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	213	92¢	$196	0x1e093b…
07-13 20:04:37	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	31	89¢	$28	0xb1fd68…
07-13 20:01:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	39	93¢	$37	0xa69134…
07-13 20:01:43	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	3,994	94¢	$3,754	0x253c5a…
07-13 19:58:10	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	541	93¢	$503	0x4cf8cf…
07-13 18:46:44	israeli forces enter choukine by july 31	No	BUY	7	91¢	$7	0x0e1e7d…
07-13 16:23:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	70	83¢	$58	0x3168d5…
07-13 16:11:08	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	1,111	80¢	$889	0xdad395…
07-13 15:29:16	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	BUY	81	13¢	$11	0xc80eba…
07-13 15:25:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	700	78¢	$546	0xb9e37a…
07-13 15:22:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	123	91¢	$112	0xf3c156…
07-13 14:47:32	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0xe6598f…
07-13 14:46:47	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	32	81¢	$26	0x6d85f2…
07-13 14:37:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x9d69f3…
07-13 14:36:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0xa2184c…
07-13 14:25:49	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	331	81¢	$268	0xee6c4b…
07-13 14:20:49	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	120	2¢	$2	0x5d0c42…
07-13 13:28:44	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	1,950	82¢	$1,599	0x75d6c4…
07-13 13:00:41	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	6,677	98¢	$6,517	0x66fea7…
07-13 12:32:28	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by august 31	No	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x47d622…