Sticky-Closing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11.3K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.5%

Resolved

Trades

4,355

lifetime

Volume

$1.64M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$378

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-10 18:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

49% 100% +$11,855

Politics

36% 0% $-24

Tech

14% — —

Sports

1% 50% $-522

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 95 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	173	$76.5K	52,048	40,760	+11,287	No	+$11,855	04-30 00:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	68	$67.3K	37,105	39,743	-2,638	open	—	05-23 16:50
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	43	$65.0K	26,450	47,884	-21,434	open	—	06-12 16:55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	99	$48.1K	26,951	27,971	-1,019	open	—	05-23 18:05
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	51	$48.0K	38,947	18,173	+20,773	open	—	08-07 19:37
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	36	$44.8K	27,223	27,223	+0	open	—	07-30 12:53
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	27	$38.5K	21,543	21,543	+0	open	—	06-19 17:05
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	29	$37.6K	19,523	22,468	-2,945	open	—	05-23 20:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	29	$37.4K	26,316	24,063	+2,253	open	—	06-12 19:47
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	71	$33.8K	20,500	22,823	-2,323	open	—	04-12 19:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	31	$30.1K	33,580	19,783	+13,797	open	—	06-12 19:32
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	46	$28.9K	15,908	15,908	+0	open	—	03-27 19:47
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	33	$27.4K	14,299	14,299	+0	open	—	07-27 04:26
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	45	$23.9K	31,561	5,975	+25,586	open	—	08-10 10:32
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	32	$22.4K	13,338	14,128	-790	open	—	03-23 14:46
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	48	$21.1K	14,615	14,868	-254	open	—	03-06 12:18
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	40	$20.8K	12,487	12,487	+0	open	—	07-27 05:10
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	167	$20.6K	11,494	16,781	-5,287	open	—	05-23 16:38
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	32	$19.6K	18,165	18,165	+0	open	—	04-09 15:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	33	$19.6K	9,092	11,292	-2,200	open	—	05-09 17:10
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	17	$18.4K	10,842	10,842	+0	open	—	07-04 19:56
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	39	$18.4K	9,699	9,699	+0	open	—	03-06 14:19
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	62	$17.9K	9,658	12,363	-2,705	open	—	04-15 11:21
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	72	$17.7K	9,355	10,397	-1,042	open	—	04-26 14:00
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	48	$16.8K	9,053	10,475	-1,422	open	—	05-31 19:40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	31	$16.8K	7,577	9,956	-2,380	open	—	03-31 10:29
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	39	$16.3K	11,703	11,703	+0	open	—	03-23 15:05
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	17	$15.4K	8,309	8,309	+0	open	—	03-11 09:45
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	17	$14.8K	12,242	5,287	+6,954	open	—	07-30 20:54
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	196	$14.8K	9,434	10,549	-1,115	open	—	04-16 04:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 18:41:42	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	309	98¢	$304	0x4675a5…
08-10 18:02:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	2,164	67¢	$1,448	0x04cba3…
08-10 17:37:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xed94ad…
08-10 16:08:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,200	86¢	$1,032	0xebf45d…
08-10 15:53:33	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	711	64¢	$455	0xd3921a…
08-10 11:08:58	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by august 31	No	BUY	271	92¢	$250	0xb24eb8…
08-10 10:32:36	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	191	84¢	$160	0x04559b…
08-10 07:47:42	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	200	84¢	$168	0xc6eefe…
08-10 07:41:43	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	581	84¢	$488	0xee27e6…
08-10 07:41:36	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	165	84¢	$139	0x528dfc…
08-09 20:52:55	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	No	BUY	430	7¢	$30	0x0e4f8c…
08-09 19:16:09	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	73¢	$3	0x4d197b…
08-09 19:13:51	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	9	73¢	$6	0x7f96b0…
08-09 18:53:46	will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xc1db17…
08-09 18:18:49	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	898	73¢	$656	0x7de978…
08-09 18:15:54	will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639	No	BUY	1,867	70¢	$1,302	0xce8ef3…
08-09 18:10:55	will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	No	BUY	754	69¢	$523	0x100a80…
08-09 13:14:24	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	160	66¢	$106	0xa9f1fe…
08-09 13:13:06	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	249	66¢	$164	0xd1aeb0…
08-09 13:05:36	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	734	66¢	$484	0xad7675…
08-09 13:04:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0x83eb63…
08-09 13:00:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	2,282	64¢	$1,451	0x99db9b…
08-09 12:59:30	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	968	71¢	$687	0xd8db18…
08-09 12:59:21	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	636	70¢	$445	0x0b7e49…
08-09 12:59:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	564	70¢	$395	0x189405…
08-08 23:09:34	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	330	86¢	$284	0x3687b3…
08-08 23:08:09	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	495	86¢	$426	0xbfc045…
08-08 23:06:54	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	1,123	85¢	$955	0xf02932…
08-08 20:16:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	24	80¢	$19	0x99a2fe…
08-08 20:16:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	34	80¢	$28	0x6c675a…
08-08 20:08:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	781	80¢	$625	0x922fa8…
08-08 20:07:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x31f1f7…
08-08 19:49:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x6b8432…
08-08 19:30:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0xb54c5a…
08-08 19:08:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	829	80¢	$663	0x5123d1…
08-08 19:05:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	195	81¢	$158	0x1b8345…
08-08 17:07:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	600	84¢	$504	0xf5a4c2…
08-08 17:06:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	600	88¢	$528	0xe66a28…
08-08 17:06:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	600	89¢	$534	0xdf863a…
08-08 13:41:06	will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	No	BUY	1,831	73¢	$1,337	0xdf7ebc…
08-08 13:34:51	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	3,000	69¢	$2,070	0xc0617a…
08-08 13:34:36	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	3,000	69¢	$2,070	0x6a84e5…
08-08 13:19:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	2,000	85¢	$1,700	0x671b59…
08-08 08:26:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	1,231	99¢	$1,217	0xa38217…
08-07 19:37:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	690	86¢	$593	0x7e0220…
08-07 19:37:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x332654…
08-07 19:23:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	245	86¢	$211	0xc2a724…
08-07 19:18:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	415	86¢	$357	0x1be6c0…
08-07 16:23:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	501	87¢	$436	0x7b6ecd…
08-07 16:14:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x59ddf2…
08-07 15:31:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	691	87¢	$601	0x537f35…
08-07 13:20:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	600	90¢	$540	0x2d5904…
08-07 13:14:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	1,200	90¢	$1,080	0xb78a31…
08-07 13:09:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,051	87¢	$914	0xac0523…
08-07 13:09:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xa19572…
08-07 13:04:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x039565…
08-07 13:03:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x01cfca…
08-07 12:54:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	126	87¢	$109	0xc45a47…
08-07 09:34:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	3,387	88¢	$2,968	0xe1d258…
08-07 09:34:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	272	87¢	$238	0x0e444b…
08-07 09:26:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	65	89¢	$57	0xcd9e0c…
08-07 09:24:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x2c000d…
08-07 07:19:37	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	5,008	97¢	$4,844	0xa31d36…
08-07 06:41:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	3,519	87¢	$3,074	0x0a20e7…
08-07 06:34:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x3533d8…
08-07 06:34:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	43	86¢	$37	0x9e1fb8…
08-07 06:33:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	200	87¢	$173	0x1c86dd…
08-07 01:18:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,800	87¢	$1,566	0xb17490…
08-06 18:16:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	183	86¢	$158	0x8c1541…
08-06 05:08:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	600	88¢	$528	0x143157…
08-06 02:49:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	31	91¢	$28	0x00c204…
08-05 22:32:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	120	86¢	$103	0x5449a3…
08-05 21:27:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xf58767…
08-05 21:16:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	79	86¢	$68	0xec1c1d…
08-05 21:00:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xc9c4aa…
08-05 20:59:57	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	7,854	96¢	$7,572	0xd7b73c…
08-05 20:18:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	1,200	91¢	$1,092	0x8ae403…
08-05 20:11:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xae8e54…
08-05 20:06:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	93	89¢	$83	0xd1fbb9…
08-05 19:56:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xa8ab01…
08-05 19:46:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	278	89¢	$247	0x76b6f0…
08-05 19:32:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x041385…
08-05 19:29:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x3c88db…
08-05 18:28:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	600	90¢	$540	0x1ade9e…
08-05 17:59:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	1,200	90¢	$1,080	0x91edb0…
08-05 14:21:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	600	81¢	$486	0x9dec30…
08-05 13:41:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	600	82¢	$492	0xf86ec0…
08-05 08:07:53	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by august 31	No	BUY	182	92¢	$168	0x7b2ddf…
08-05 06:14:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,800	83¢	$1,494	0x569b5e…
08-05 05:20:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	13,173	82¢	$10,802	0xf07fc2…
08-05 04:49:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	1,990	96¢	$1,914	0xb40abb…
08-05 04:38:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	5,000	82¢	$4,100	0x291609…
08-04 15:53:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	1,990	95¢	$1,890	0xc9b84e…
08-04 15:46:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	800	80¢	$640	0x933fb5…
08-04 15:30:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	942	82¢	$772	0x6ec02c…
08-04 14:54:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	2,200	81¢	$1,782	0xc6d6ec…
08-04 14:42:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0x53da9a…
08-04 13:42:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	593	82¢	$486	0xcaae55…
08-04 13:39:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x0c5565…
08-04 13:38:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	387	82¢	$317	0xa74288…