Tart-Tragedy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

32.6%

Resolved

Trades

179

lifetime

Volume

$5.76K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-14 14:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

41% 38% -$6

Politics

29% 32% -$1

Sports

14% 29% -$1

Crypto

13% 38% $0

Tech

4% 67% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-14).

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russian strike on a nato member by march 31	6	$196	101	101	+0	No	$0	02-17 15:29
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?	4	$140	73	73	+0	No	-$1	01-31 07:04
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$131	66	66	+0	No	$0	03-09 12:19
trump out as president by march 31	4	$130	66	66	+0	No	$0	03-27 14:49
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	4	$104	52	52	+0	open	—	05-04 16:15
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	2	$75	38	38	+0	No	$0	01-06 14:15
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$74	38	38	+0	No	-$1	01-07 14:50
nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026	2	$72	37	37	+0	No	+$0	01-11 05:27
will ethereum reach 4400 in january 2026	2	$72	37	37	+0	No	$0	01-12 14:07
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$72	36	36	+0	No	+$0	01-09 15:38
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 440m and 480m by january 31	3	$72	36	36	+0	No	+$0	01-13 12:09
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$72	37	37	+0	No	$0	01-14 11:54
will solana reach 210 in january 2026	2	$72	36	36	+0	No	+$0	01-21 11:20
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	2	$72	37	37	+0	Yes	+$0	01-20 14:52
will israel nuke iran by january 31	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	$0	01-18 14:05
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	2	$71	37	37	+0	No	$0	01-19 12:54
gc hit 6000 high jan 2026	2	$70	36	36	+0	No	$0	01-28 14:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-21 15:37
Human moon landing in 2026?	2	$70	36	36	+0	open	—	05-18 23:16
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	$0	05-20 23:56
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$70	35	35	+0	open	—	05-22 18:20
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	2	$70	36	36	+0	open	—	05-20 00:09
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO day?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	$0	05-23 15:06
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-28 15:30
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	2	$69	35	35	+0	Yes	$0	05-29 14:30
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	05-26 14:49
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	06-12 03:32
Netanyahu out by June 30?	2	$68	35	35	+0	No	+$0	06-09 01:08
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	06-14 14:11
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	05-24 14:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 14:15:40	Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	36	94¢	$34	0x848f5c…
06-14 14:11:45	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x76465b…
06-12 03:36:07	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x396b9c…
06-12 03:32:58	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x0653a0…
06-10 13:06:34	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xdf4c01…
06-10 13:01:31	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xbd818d…
06-09 01:12:24	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x2f9cdb…
06-09 01:08:19	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x6fca58…
06-03 14:02:58	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x78bf43…
06-03 13:31:07	Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xe7b74a…
06-02 11:37:52	Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x3e02b3…
06-02 11:35:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x4d45a8…
06-01 14:40:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x5531bc…
06-01 14:37:03	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x5491d6…
05-31 00:16:35	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x348b11…
05-31 00:14:40	Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xb0d180…
05-29 15:57:14	Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x9f1f96…
05-29 14:30:33	Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x9c9eff…
05-28 15:34:18	Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	BUY	35	99¢	$34	0x532891…
05-28 15:30:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xb52be7…
05-26 14:51:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x5db410…
05-26 14:49:03	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xfa5eea…
05-24 14:18:49	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x5d7e3e…
05-24 14:04:35	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x26be1b…
05-23 15:11:34	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xc8fb41…
05-23 15:06:09	Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$35	0x7e2ff0…
05-22 18:23:37	Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x4569c6…
05-22 18:20:16	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x2e69f2…
05-21 15:43:02	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x4fa3c6…
05-21 15:37:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x596770…
05-21 00:00:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x42b0ad…
05-20 23:56:52	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xfe31ff…
05-20 00:12:06	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xbaee1a…
05-20 00:09:29	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0x067a46…
05-18 23:17:31	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0xbe8ec0…
05-18 23:16:07	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	36	97¢	$35	0x43be4b…
05-18 00:02:22	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0xcb01b4…
05-15 00:10:16	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x24f7f3…
05-14 23:07:30	Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x8296ae…
05-13 00:32:52	Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xb58bcb…
05-13 00:31:32	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xc1483c…
05-12 00:11:06	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x9f1522…
05-12 00:09:24	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x922cd7…
05-10 14:17:11	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1a902e…
05-10 13:56:11	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xdcf354…
05-08 15:26:01	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x856396…
05-08 15:23:50	Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x970dc3…
05-07 15:11:08	Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x23bce9…
05-07 15:08:26	Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x596eb1…
05-05 14:19:52	Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x76a220…
05-05 13:45:18	Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x1f23a3…
05-04 16:19:54	Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x5b015b…
05-04 16:15:48	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x8f6863…
05-04 00:40:56	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xca9dcb…
05-04 00:38:42	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x63f01a…
05-02 15:35:22	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xeded48…
05-02 15:30:24	Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xa98742…
05-01 16:08:32	Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x034edf…
05-01 16:03:34	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x85da2e…
04-29 12:23:38	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x0249cd…
04-29 12:20:42	Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x8f9e8b…
04-28 15:20:16	Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x84c114…
04-28 15:17:16	Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x4e64da…
04-27 14:40:38	Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x8f4614…
04-26 15:18:10	Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x256af6…
04-24 16:20:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xa3706d…
04-23 14:07:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x321d2e…
04-23 13:20:54	Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April?	No	SELL	31	85¢	$27	0x8d5740…
04-21 15:11:10	Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x57030b…
04-21 15:06:44	Will Google dip to $220 in April?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xeef476…
04-19 00:37:32	Will Google dip to $220 in April?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x4ed65b…
04-19 00:33:32	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$31	0x729259…
04-16 13:59:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$31	0x44b286…
04-15 13:14:42	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$31	0x841b31…
04-13 12:27:21	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xc31991…
04-13 12:24:31	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0xa89ab0…
04-10 12:31:49	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x857692…
04-10 12:28:29	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x5614ec…
04-09 14:16:53	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xda8b80…
03-30 14:10:31	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xebb110…
03-29 10:29:12	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x76ff32…
03-29 10:27:38	will trump visit greenland by march 31	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x4161d2…
03-27 14:50:45	will trump visit greenland by march 31	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x76599c…
03-27 14:49:17	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x1d655c…
03-26 13:41:47	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x58c1bc…
03-26 13:28:23	will trump cut off trade with spain	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x5b96ce…
03-25 14:55:43	will trump cut off trade with spain	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x56a643…
03-25 14:53:39	will jean michel aulas win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x4e9382…
03-23 13:58:03	will jean michel aulas win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xdd7a1b…
03-23 13:54:01	Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	33	98¢	$32	0x22e04b…
03-22 14:31:25	Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$32	0x163783…
03-20 15:09:53	will akron win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x2324fa…
03-20 14:39:57	will the momentum movement momentum win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x1b28f1…
03-19 13:23:35	will the momentum movement momentum win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x8b9155…
03-18 11:40:03	Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0xe509d3…
03-16 14:13:09	Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x806371…
03-15 12:27:41	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x71b536…
03-14 15:00:55	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x575551…
03-13 13:08:49	will f1 win best picture at the 98th academy awards 948	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x22e9e0…
03-12 12:44:19	will f1 win best picture at the 98th academy awards 948	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xe5e62a…