Distorted-Experiment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.4%

Resolved

Trades

143

lifetime

Volume

$19.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$139

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 06-04 14:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 100% +$0

Other

25% 0% $-2

Sports

12% 100% +$4

Politics

9% 0% $-14

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	6	$2.7K	1,200	1,500	-300	open	—	05-26 11:57
bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	5	$2.4K	1,600	800	+800	open	—	06-04 14:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	2	$1.4K	700	700	+0	open	—	05-27 11:56
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2?	4	$1.1K	527	527	+0	open	—	06-01 13:02
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	2	$995	500	500	+0	open	—	05-13 15:27
nba gsw phx 2026 04 17	4	$985	1,052	0	+1,052	open	—	04-18 04:30
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	2	$798	400	400	+0	open	—	05-17 16:15
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	2	$797	400	400	+0	open	—	05-10 14:04
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	4	$720	400	400	+0	open	—	05-07 06:25
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	4	$654	400	400	+0	No	$-14	05-05 08:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3?	2	$599	300	300	+0	open	—	06-03 08:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	2	$598	300	300	+0	open	—	06-02 07:01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	1	$500	500	0	+500	open	—	05-18 10:37
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16?	2	$399	200	200	+0	open	—	05-15 10:09
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	2	$399	200	200	+0	open	—	05-10 10:56
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	2	$398	200	200	+0	open	—	05-09 05:43
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8	$394	300	101	+199	No	+$4	04-21 13:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	5	$367	200	200	+0	open	—	05-18 19:34
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$356	200	200	+0	open	—	04-30 14:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	5	$300	203	203	+0	open	—	05-04 15:12
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8?	1	$300	300	0	+300	Yes	+$0	05-07 11:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?	1	$300	300	0	+300	open	—	06-01 14:27
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	1	$299	300	0	+300	open	—	05-18 09:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?	1	$299	300	0	+300	open	—	05-20 10:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16?	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	05-15 11:08
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-22 22:48
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$117	60	60	+0	Yes	+$0	04-24 21:02
nba orl det 2026 04 19	1	$100	125	0	+125	open	—	04-19 13:36
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	1	$100	196	0	+196	open	—	04-25 16:51
Knicks vs. Hawks	1	$100	213	0	+213	open	—	04-25 16:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 14:23:45	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	800	100¢	$799	0x9c9897…
06-04 10:45:46	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	SELL	459	100¢	$458	0xb66a9e…
06-04 10:45:28	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	SELL	329	100¢	$328	0xf35420…
06-04 10:45:21	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x0815b5…
06-04 02:27:51	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	800	100¢	$797	0x7d82cc…
06-03 11:53:59	GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xa8b27c…
06-03 08:10:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x82bd3b…
06-03 03:26:47	GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x3f4681…
06-03 02:15:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0x92a289…
06-03 01:21:01	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x208c12…
06-03 01:08:49	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x5912b0…
06-03 01:01:02	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xca76ee…
06-02 22:13:05	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 2?	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x75724b…
06-02 17:44:30	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xb16696…
06-02 15:20:16	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x3b567d…
06-02 15:17:19	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	58¢	$1	0x22a272…
06-02 15:16:58	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0x44ef8a…
06-02 13:47:31	Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xe6c169…
06-02 08:34:33	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xbbafcc…
06-02 07:01:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0x9c9ec4…
06-02 05:58:40	Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x1d313b…
06-02 05:04:12	Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xe602af…
06-02 04:46:58	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x4c637c…
06-02 04:28:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$298	0xf1ed78…
06-02 03:32:22	Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x35f531…
06-02 03:31:47	Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xd44f59…
06-02 03:25:55	Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x13852c…
06-02 03:25:02	Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x5f2f7c…
06-01 14:27:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x317f5f…
06-01 13:02:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2?	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0x324932…
06-01 13:01:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2?	No	SELL	366	100¢	$365	0x2b81e3…
06-01 12:53:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xf47068…
06-01 10:18:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	527	100¢	$525	0x8308d9…
05-27 11:56:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	SELL	700	100¢	$697	0x8e1492…
05-27 06:26:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	700	100¢	$696	0x732f4c…
05-26 11:57:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x34afd1…
05-26 11:51:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	673	100¢	$671	0xbce296…
05-26 09:13:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	700	100¢	$697	0x647398…
05-22 11:13:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	300	99¢	$297	0xd29b04…
05-21 01:24:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	500	98¢	$492	0xbe2041…
05-20 13:08:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0x4b23fb…
05-20 10:36:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0x69c771…
05-20 00:05:34	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x05bc6e…
05-18 19:34:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	116	90¢	$104	0xae59dc…
05-18 10:37:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x8febd7…
05-18 09:46:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0x69598f…
05-17 16:15:17	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	No	SELL	400	100¢	$399	0xf49077…
05-15 11:54:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	43	93¢	$40	0xdf7627…
05-15 11:48:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	42	93¢	$39	0x4e8858…
05-15 11:08:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xe9ab52…
05-15 10:09:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xce8ed0…
05-15 08:51:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xed3201…
05-15 07:19:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x42082d…
05-15 06:02:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	72	92¢	$66	0xd0ed23…
05-15 06:02:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	128	92¢	$118	0xda6648…
05-13 20:55:34	Will Cisco's AI orders taken from hyperscalers be at least $2.5B in Q3?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xb44e5b…
05-13 15:27:32	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xadc036…
05-12 11:38:28	Will Cisco's Networking revenue be above $9.0B in Q3?	No	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0x260083…
05-11 06:53:14	Will Cisco's AI orders taken from hyperscalers be at least $1.5B in Q3?	No	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x052f65…
05-11 06:24:34	Will Cisco's AI orders taken from hyperscalers be at least $1.5B in Q3?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x325795…
05-11 06:08:36	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x275232…
05-11 05:34:55	Will Cisco's AI orders taken from hyperscalers be at least $2.5B in Q3?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xab12ef…
05-11 05:26:29	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x1c8ded…
05-11 05:22:03	Will Cisco's Networking revenue be above $9.0B in Q3?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x820049…
05-11 04:53:25	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x11072e…
05-10 14:04:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	SELL	400	100¢	$399	0x47b9b2…
05-10 10:56:28	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0xa5ba3b…
05-09 06:26:41	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x8e08a4…
05-09 06:25:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x8777f8…
05-09 05:43:10	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$199	0x168800…
05-07 12:04:41	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x1b806c…
05-07 11:58:45	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x926684…
05-07 11:58:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xc08c4a…
05-07 06:25:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0x5b53e6…
05-06 20:52:56	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x4ffda6…
05-06 13:55:36	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x0a2fe8…
05-06 12:20:30	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x3bb8f0…
05-05 15:03:30	Will Cabot (CBT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x94192a…
05-05 08:15:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0xfda229…
05-05 07:31:14	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	SELL	40	32¢	$13	0x8c13cd…
05-04 15:12:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	203	74¢	$150	0xbe4fb9…
05-04 10:02:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x4a37f6…
05-03 08:41:44	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2bd49e…
05-03 07:13:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	74¢	$52	0x8abf5d…
05-03 07:12:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0xbe3c34…
05-03 07:12:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0xd54048…
05-03 07:09:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0xd826d2…
05-03 07:07:44	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x086c47…
05-03 07:04:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xef733d…
05-03 06:39:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xf3a011…
04-30 14:30:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0xdd2018…
04-29 13:58:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x2b7a3c…
04-28 09:24:54	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	SELL	11	78¢	$8	0xcc3f67…
04-28 09:24:52	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0x4a8d49…
04-28 09:16:00	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x6a4b81…
04-28 09:06:28	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x7c8ac8…
04-28 08:46:32	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x255143…
04-28 08:40:44	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x2e0c93…
04-27 14:01:32	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 27?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x076269…
04-27 09:13:58	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 27?	No	SELL	46	2¢	$1	0x25a918…