Diligent-Spray — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$118

Unrealized P&L

+$79

Hit rate

80.7%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

1,111 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$2.14K

$93.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

$464

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-03 22:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 67 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 70% -$330

Other

29% 71% +$269

Politics

17% 43% -$1,836

Tech

0% 100% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No		+319	$149	70¢	$225	+$76	10-29 13:13
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No		+120	$90	92¢	$110	+$20	08-05 13:10
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		+427	$47	14¢	$58	+$11	10-29 13:35
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No		+65	$40	58¢	$38	-$2	11-03 22:17
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	—	+72	$50	46¢	$34	-$16	10-25 15:47
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes		+40	$10	0¢	$0	-$10	11-03 22:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	28	$5.1K	6,191	7,933	-1,742	Yes	+$341	06-03 19:39
bitcoin up or down april 14 2026 10am et	16	$4.4K	2,580	2,536	+44	Down	+$554	04-14 14:55
will tisza win at least 130 seats	7	$4.3K	3,161	3,161	+0	Yes	+$12	04-13 10:00
bitcoin up or down january 3 10am et	2	$3.0K	1,508	1,508	+0	Down	+$15	01-03 15:54
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark?	17	$2.9K	1,398	5,693	-4,295	Yes	+$1,116	05-24 16:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 20:15 UTC	50	$2.8K	1,552	1,535	+17	Down	+$225	04-14 20:25
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	9	$2.4K	1,409	1,409	+0	Yes	+$254	04-12 18:37
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	13	$2.2K	8,759	11,151	-2,393	No	-$1,927	05-24 16:23
bitcoin up or down april 16 2026 8am et	29	$2.0K	1,889	1,866	+23	Up	+$72	04-16 12:34
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-04-11 12:00 UTC	43	$1.7K	1,022	1,012	+9	Down	+$19	04-11 15:33
will tisza win at least 120 seats	2	$1.6K	1,050	1,050	+0	Yes	+$446	04-13 10:00
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?	3	$1.6K	825	825	+0	No	+$36	06-03 19:40
ethereum up or down january 4 4pm et	4	$1.6K	1,345	1,345	+0	Up	-$697	01-04 22:00
bitcoin up or down on april 11 2026	15	$1.6K	1,078	1,065	+13	Up	+$9	04-11 14:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-16 12:00 UTC	61	$1.6K	857	851	+6	Up	+$27	04-16 12:10
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	10	$1.5K	1,691	1,624	+67	Yes	-$361	08-17 18:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	2	$1.5K	837	837	+0	Down	+$43	05-21 14:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-14 20:30 UTC	25	$1.5K	2,267	2,232	+35	Up	-$650	04-14 20:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	28	$1.4K	819	819	+0	Down	+$19	05-06 09:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-04 22:15 UTC	14	$1.2K	1,271	1,271	+0	Up	-$91	01-04 22:23
will tisza win 46 50 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$1.2K	696	696	+0	No	+$192	04-13 10:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 20:25 UTC	17	$1.2K	1,229	1,221	+8	Down	-$394	03-19 20:29
bitcoin up or down april 16 2026 10am et	3	$1.1K	1,265	1,231	+34	Up	-$449	04-16 14:35
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-19 20:15 UTC	21	$1.1K	727	726	+1	Up	-$32	03-19 20:24
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-04-11 08:00 UTC	13	$1.0K	749	732	+16	Up	+$16	04-11 10:38
bitcoin up or down april 13 2026 10am et	12	$1.0K	637	637	+0	Up	+$210	04-13 14:52
will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	2	$1.0K	712	534	+178	No	+$185	06-29 07:02
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-03 15:30 UTC	1	$956	1,478	0	+1,478	Up	+$521	01-03 15:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 15:30 UTC	5	$928	837	824	+13	Up	+$84	03-19 15:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 20:15 UTC	2	$865	487	484	+3	Up	+$74	03-19 20:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 22:32:31	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	63	75¢	$48	0x029ede…
11-03 22:31:36	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	106	75¢	$80	0xe70684…
11-03 22:31:28	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x506bf0…
11-03 22:31:22	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x4520f1…
11-03 22:31:01	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	6	75¢	$5	0x8cb84a…
11-03 22:22:55	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x06de85…
11-03 22:17:03	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0xeab353…
11-03 22:02:54	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	455	24¢	$111	0x5254f3…
11-03 22:02:24	Sweden snap election called in 2026?	Yes	SELL	201	20¢	$41	0x7531bd…
11-03 20:19:57	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?	Yes	SELL	158	14¢	$22	0xc18956…
11-03 20:09:10	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	1,804	14¢	$247	0xc3f4c8…
11-03 19:29:27	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0x0038cd…
11-03 19:28:46	Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	159	61¢	$97	0x4e1a87…
11-03 19:25:33	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?	Yes	SELL	343	11¢	$38	0xe16fe3…
10-29 14:34:22	Sweden snap election called in 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	18¢	$36	0x5eec9b…
10-29 13:35:04	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	427	11¢	$47	0xf381d1…
10-29 13:13:41	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	60	58¢	$35	0xaae8d8…
10-29 13:09:38	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?	Yes	BUY	343	15¢	$50	0x4f4a0a…
10-29 13:07:16	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?	Yes	BUY	158	13¢	$20	0xdb9086…
10-29 13:00:17	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	455	24¢	$110	0xe870c8…
10-29 12:18:17	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	164	64¢	$105	0x386d47…
10-29 11:33:08	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	80	97¢	$78	0x466196…
10-29 11:32:25	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	60	97¢	$58	0x72bd03…
10-27 21:58:42	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	17	44¢	$7	0x1f2ac3…
10-27 21:48:21	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	140	44¢	$62	0xb04f12…
10-27 21:47:27	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	102	44¢	$45	0x5cf721…
10-27 21:39:59	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xa2869e…
10-27 21:38:23	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	60	62¢	$37	0xab74c6…
10-27 21:32:56	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	456	39¢	$178	0x9b36e1…
10-27 21:30:09	Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	37	17¢	$6	0x748c8e…
10-26 08:00:44	Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xa3e46a…
10-25 16:19:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x4b8be0…
10-25 16:19:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x8ad92f…
10-25 15:53:53	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0xd55e9f…
10-25 15:47:32	Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0xf78e7c…
10-25 15:46:23	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	79	75¢	$60	0x97a568…
09-13 20:20:25	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	79	75¢	$60	0x63a8f9…
09-13 19:36:00	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%?	Yes	BUY	118	68¢	$80	0xb13291…
09-13 19:35:25	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	399	34¢	$137	0x32047a…
09-13 19:25:28	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 84-86%?	No	BUY	360	94¢	$340	0x6187a3…
09-13 19:19:04	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	270	90¢	$243	0xa7f9a3…
09-13 19:16:46	Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	287	7¢	$20	0xe98bd9…
09-13 19:16:25	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	395	8¢	$32	0x35235c…
09-03 17:00:07	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	399	35¢	$140	0x19b308…
09-03 16:57:04	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	164	49¢	$80	0x8c5bfd…
09-01 15:33:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	56	37¢	$21	0x8420d7…
09-01 15:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 11AM ET	Down	SELL	114	90¢	$102	0xcb21da…
09-01 15:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x4c3f51…
08-18 15:06:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x8f44bb…
08-17 18:32:55	will jptdpt vance attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221264	No	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x717aba…
08-17 18:32:22	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	BUY	67	74¢	$50	0x5363b7…
08-17 18:31:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	71¢	$40	0xe4a0dc…
08-13 20:29:13	Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	BUY	53	32¢	$17	0x442056…
08-13 19:13:10	Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x873203…
08-13 19:12:30	Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x5ef58c…
08-13 16:40:36	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	108	98¢	$106	0x17547a…
08-13 11:13:51	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0x3c1beb…
08-13 11:01:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x05b995…
08-13 06:28:46	Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	SELL	177	35¢	$62	0x480666…
08-05 13:10:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	120	75¢	$90	0x8a75e6…
08-05 13:08:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	292	51¢	$150	0xadcc81…
08-05 12:59:05	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x6920bb…
08-04 13:32:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	550	39¢	$214	0x3613c1…
08-03 06:42:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	52	88¢	$46	0xb145bf…
07-21 13:12:48	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	125	61¢	$76	0xb6d647…
07-21 13:11:04	Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	BUY	177	17¢	$30	0x23b46f…
07-21 13:05:12	US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	No	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x3a1ee3…
07-11 07:45:49	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	553	38¢	$208	0x8fa277…
07-09 19:58:55	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	128	61¢	$78	0xe96372…
07-09 19:56:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	530	15¢	$80	0x95429e…
07-06 08:48:07	Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	287	78¢	$224	0x3054f4…
07-06 08:35:34	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,312	5¢	$66	0x25f79d…
07-06 08:35:04	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	220	44¢	$97	0x7bf6d6…
07-01 16:23:58	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	SELL	39	47¢	$18	0xb5a61e…
07-01 12:15:56	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	395	76¢	$300	0x442b64…
07-01 12:14:56	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	9¢	$20	0xa704b3…
07-01 12:11:01	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0xe49e22…
07-01 12:08:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0x535bce…
07-01 12:03:11	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	270	74¢	$200	0x26ea5e…
07-01 12:00:32	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x310406…
07-01 11:59:37	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x48623b…
07-01 11:58:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x9898a7…
07-01 11:58:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	550	20¢	$110	0xc5a823…
06-29 07:02:34	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	534	95¢	$507	0xb324cb…
06-19 05:59:04	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	131	94¢	$123	0xa96c75…
06-19 05:48:26	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	400	30¢	$121	0x4a3d82…
06-18 17:13:34	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$16	0xe682dd…
06-18 17:04:52	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	110	83¢	$91	0xe4d6ee…
06-18 16:56:46	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	119	83¢	$99	0x3f872a…
06-18 16:54:53	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	107	83¢	$89	0xce787b…
06-18 16:48:29	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	45	83¢	$37	0x513ac5…
06-18 16:36:44	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	SELL	190	95¢	$181	0x8f7f66…
06-15 11:45:22	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	190	75¢	$143	0x7b3e00…
06-15 11:29:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	111	90¢	$100	0xf36ac8…
06-15 11:28:39	Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xa11a08…
06-12 19:44:57	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	86	88¢	$76	0xe95dfb…
06-12 19:44:25	bitcoin up or down june 12 2026 3pm et	Up	SELL	210	38¢	$79	0x86c125…
06-12 19:44:06	bitcoin up or down june 12 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	81	41¢	$33	0x4c8804…
06-12 19:37:46	bitcoin up or down june 12 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	118	73¢	$86	0xe6d23f…
06-12 19:37:45	bitcoin up or down june 12 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0xbd7376…