Graceful-Guerrilla — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.1%

Resolved

Trades

506

lifetime

Volume

$681.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.35K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-18

last 07-02 12:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

63% 0% $-23

Politics

37% 100% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	34	$177.0K	99,773	99,773	+0	open	—	07-02 12:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	71	$112.9K	58,593	58,593	+0	open	—	05-27 13:29
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	58	$95.4K	51,985	46,686	+5,299	open	—	06-10 08:30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	87	$72.9K	38,341	38,243	+98	open	—	05-28 03:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	46	$42.1K	22,120	22,120	+0	open	—	05-13 04:50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	8	$33.1K	18,030	18,030	+0	open	—	05-28 17:54
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	31	$27.3K	20,837	9,063	+11,774	open	—	05-31 22:23
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$21.5K	12,550	12,550	+0	open	—	06-13 11:36
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	2	$20.1K	10,500	10,500	+0	open	—	05-27 03:06
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	12	$16.0K	10,336	6,595	+3,741	open	—	06-13 04:46
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	12	$10.1K	148	10,020	-9,872	open	—	05-26 04:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$9.4K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	06-01 16:56
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	17	$7.1K	7,570	0	+7,570	open	—	06-09 17:33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	32	$6.0K	6,600	0	+6,600	open	—	05-13 11:48
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	10	$5.4K	2,790	2,790	+0	open	—	05-31 04:06
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	2	$5.3K	5,731	0	+5,731	open	—	06-13 19:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$5.0K	2,549	2,549	+0	open	—	06-01 03:05
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	7	$4.2K	6,014	0	+6,014	open	—	06-01 17:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	9	$2.3K	1,159	1,159	+0	No	+$7	05-08 14:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	6	$2.0K	1,161	1,161	+0	open	—	04-30 11:01
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	6	$1.8K	989	989	+0	open	—	06-01 02:08
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$955	481	481	+0	open	—	06-01 04:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$739	500	500	+0	open	—	04-21 20:58
will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216 619	2	$264	337	0	+337	open	—	06-19 12:22
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	3	$244	500	500	+0	open	—	05-05 17:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$4	05-12 06:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$193	100	100	+0	open	—	05-12 14:17
israel closes its airspace by june 12	2	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	06-12 15:26
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	3	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	04-26 19:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$183	100	100	+0	open	—	05-11 05:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 12:31:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	8,671	100¢	$8,645	0x1ebfbf…
06-25 11:49:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	259	90¢	$234	0xfe8983…
06-25 11:49:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	4,750	90¢	$4,299	0x18f7e8…
06-25 11:49:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	442	90¢	$400	0xd9a21c…
06-24 06:05:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	411	98¢	$402	0x2b3143…
06-23 17:32:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	13,674	97¢	$13,264	0xd367cf…
06-23 17:32:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0x29e61f…
06-20 17:38:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	502	92¢	$461	0x41da56…
06-20 17:38:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	44,000	92¢	$40,480	0x8aa8e8…
06-20 17:36:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	120	92¢	$111	0xaaf89e…
06-20 12:30:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3,700	90¢	$3,330	0x85b046…
06-19 12:22:37	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216 619	No	BUY	296	84¢	$249	0x85b623…
06-19 12:19:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	20,688	91¢	$18,826	0x3a72ce…
06-18 14:50:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	19,657	87¢	$17,101	0x9686c3…
06-18 14:50:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0xb5ab17…
06-18 14:45:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0xf31969…
06-18 14:42:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x3ffde6…
06-18 14:41:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	312	87¢	$272	0xbfe367…
06-18 13:46:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xa1d05a…
06-15 05:03:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x43bc47…
06-15 05:03:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xea4370…
06-15 05:03:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	47	70¢	$33	0xb135d6…
06-15 05:03:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x0e763c…
06-15 05:02:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xd74836…
06-15 05:02:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	64	70¢	$45	0x42efe2…
06-15 05:02:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0x078c95…
06-15 05:02:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	380	11¢	$42	0xae5fe0…
06-13 19:35:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x1f520f…
06-13 13:37:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	5,721	93¢	$5,321	0x6a1a1f…
06-13 12:39:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	35,178	77¢	$27,189	0xa7187f…
06-13 11:36:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	12,550	76¢	$9,521	0x4de62d…
06-13 04:46:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x0f5231…
06-13 04:37:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	6,585	100¢	$6,572	0x2e2768…
06-12 20:07:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x514d3c…
06-12 17:52:15	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	1,700	90¢	$1,522	0xa10714…
06-12 17:49:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	40	89¢	$35	0xda4577…
06-12 17:49:15	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	69	89¢	$61	0x31a47b…
06-12 17:48:34	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	3,062	90¢	$2,759	0x44e497…
06-12 17:48:30	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	131	90¢	$118	0x39b76b…
06-12 17:47:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5,852	79¢	$4,623	0x00b6ba…
06-12 15:26:10	israel closes its airspace by june 12	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xbbb7a3…
06-12 15:23:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	67	92¢	$62	0x9c7a47…
06-11 14:31:12	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0xd1928a…
06-11 04:58:43	israel closes its airspace by june 12	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x1f148d…
06-10 20:25:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x8d46bb…
06-10 18:44:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	3,060	94¢	$2,876	0xf94e02…
06-10 17:13:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x9a5b35…
06-10 09:59:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10,000	96¢	$9,600	0x8406a6…
06-10 08:52:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$37	0xf738f0…
06-10 08:45:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x351f6e…
06-10 08:42:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd1e6c9…
06-10 08:42:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x06008c…
06-10 08:42:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	38,925	91¢	$35,422	0xbea221…
06-10 08:30:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	40,825	99¢	$40,498	0x3485d7…
06-10 03:45:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	2,180	92¢	$2,006	0x725f2b…
06-09 17:33:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x9eb7a5…
06-09 15:56:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	425	98¢	$416	0x0a86b5…
06-09 14:26:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0x32868f…
06-09 14:19:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	139	99¢	$136	0xc902ae…
06-09 05:28:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x96b698…
06-09 05:25:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0xfc104d…
06-08 17:27:42	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217	No	BUY	17	21¢	$4	0x82823a…
06-08 17:22:48	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216	No	BUY	41	38¢	$15	0x14e714…
06-08 13:12:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x6e2aff…
06-08 11:00:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xf5bb3f…
06-08 10:37:15	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	160	93¢	$149	0x0febdc…
06-08 10:36:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	840	93¢	$781	0x43e500…
06-08 10:05:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x5db614…
06-08 09:44:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	5,041	94¢	$4,744	0x8c0ca2…
06-08 09:43:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	199	94¢	$187	0x6d4d6d…
06-08 09:43:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	72	94¢	$68	0x212876…
06-08 09:43:01	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	72	94¢	$68	0x8a6adf…
06-08 09:42:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	442	94¢	$415	0xbb94c5…
06-08 09:41:01	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa889b6…
06-08 09:40:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0x8f5253…
06-07 12:09:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x9f37dc…
06-07 04:16:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,550	94¢	$1,457	0x55417d…
06-06 18:27:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xc446e9…
06-06 18:19:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$985	0x91e20b…
06-06 17:56:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	220	99¢	$216	0x6a8352…
06-06 17:43:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	300	99¢	$295	0x4301d3…
06-06 17:16:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	3,067	99¢	$3,021	0xb496ab…
06-06 16:30:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	133	99¢	$131	0x92346a…
06-06 15:26:54	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	124	98¢	$121	0x0892fd…
06-04 22:53:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	83¢	$1,660	0xbc58eb…
06-04 19:10:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,505	96¢	$1,447	0xf3291e…
06-04 15:04:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	150	96¢	$145	0x4347b7…
06-03 20:31:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	9,332	97¢	$9,014	0x294439…
06-03 20:31:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x4b0403…
06-03 20:30:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf69833…
06-03 20:19:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x951eb7…
06-03 20:19:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x7f2aba…
06-03 20:19:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0x3f5bdb…
06-03 20:19:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x05029c…
06-03 20:19:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xc4d89a…
06-03 18:55:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	5,000	97¢	$4,840	0xaafa96…
06-03 18:14:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x0c829a…
06-03 18:05:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0xd261e7…
06-03 18:01:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x4886d5…
06-03 17:47:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xdfd42a…