Deficient-Pamphlet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

-$17

Hit rate

43.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$305

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 06-12 18:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Politics

59% 33% +$79

Other

26% 0% -$59

Crypto

11% 0% -$35

Sports

3% 0% -$10

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-12).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes		+164	$10	2¢	$3	-$7	05-14 15:36
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes		+16	$10	2¢	$0	-$10	05-23 14:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	2	$65	104	104	+0	Yes	+$55	06-12 18:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$55	71	71	+0	No	+$35	05-23 20:56
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway	1	$23	49	0	+49	Norway	-$23	05-25 14:38
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$18	4,506	0	+4,506	Yes	-$18	05-14 15:39
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?	1	$10	965	0	+965	No	-$10	05-14 15:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14?	1	$10	1,405	0	+1,405	Yes	-$10	05-14 15:25
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	05-23 14:48
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	1	$10	207	0	+207	No	-$10	05-23 14:47
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	1	$10	326	0	+326	Yes	-$10	05-14 15:33
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	1	$10	875	0	+875	No	-$10	05-14 15:44
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	1	$10	500	0	+500	No	-$10	05-14 15:43
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$10	88	0	+88	No	-$10	05-23 14:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$10	56	0	+56	No	-$10	05-23 21:00
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	1	$10	45	0	+45	Yes	-$10	05-24 14:25
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$10	164	0	+164	open	—	05-14 15:36
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$5	05-14 15:49
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	625	0	+625	No	-$5	05-14 15:41
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	1	$5	1,250	0	+1,250	No	-$5	05-14 15:42
World Championships: Great Britain vs. Latvia	1	$5	28	0	+28	Latvia	-$5	05-24 14:26
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	1	$5	150	0	+150	Yes	-$5	05-14 15:49
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	1	$5	131	0	+131	No	-$5	05-23 14:47
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	1	$3	50	0	+50	Yes	+$47	05-14 18:50
World Championships: Germany vs. Great Britain	1	$1	17	0	+17	Germany	-$1	05-25 18:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 18:47:30	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	104	58¢	$60	0x01ba00…
05-25 18:05:14	World Championships: Germany vs. Great Britain	Great Britain	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x8c97c4…
05-25 14:38:04	World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway	Czechia	BUY	49	47¢	$23	0x38e5b0…
05-24 14:26:33	World Championships: Great Britain vs. Latvia	Great Britain	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xee0eaa…
05-24 14:25:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x63c536…
05-23 21:00:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x3cc9e4…
05-23 20:56:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	64¢	$45	0x9df88b…
05-23 14:48:33	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x38b02e…
05-23 14:47:30	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	131	4¢	$5	0x711c61…
05-23 14:47:01	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	207	5¢	$10	0x3ba2de…
05-23 14:45:40	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	88	11¢	$10	0x9f4cf5…
05-23 13:08:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x1a9cf6…
05-14 18:50:14	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x4f2a0c…
05-14 16:35:15	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	104	5¢	$5	0x10b713…
05-14 15:49:38	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0xb68a09…
05-14 15:49:34	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	150	3¢	$5	0xa4c3f6…
05-14 15:44:44	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	Yes	BUY	875	1¢	$10	0x70bbfb…
05-14 15:43:23	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x6f2b84…
05-14 15:42:55	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	1,250	0¢	$5	0x4fd714…
05-14 15:41:00	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	625	1¢	$5	0xc7def1…
05-14 15:39:53	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2,006	0¢	$8	0x0eb7a8…
05-14 15:39:51	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0xec1a8f…
05-14 15:36:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	164	6¢	$10	0xc46a37…
05-14 15:33:18	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	No	BUY	326	3¢	$10	0x93dff8…
05-14 15:25:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	1,405	1¢	$10	0x8d1143…
05-14 15:25:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	965	1¢	$10	0x1dfacf…