Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

54.2%

Resolved

104

Trades

110

lifetime

Volume

$137

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-08-19

last 11-06 22:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

81% 54% +$6

Politics

14% 57% +$3

Tech

5% 60% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	45¢	$2	+$1	11-06 13:08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	+1	$1	97¢	$1	+$0	11-03 03:38
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	+1	$1	90¢	$1	+$0	11-03 22:00
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	+2	$1	56¢	$1	+$0	11-06 22:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will pltr reach 192 in august 2026	2	$3	8	+8	No	-$1	08-29 14:43
Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$2	5	+5	No	-$1	10-18 12:02
will mu dip to 900 by september 14 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	09-15 07:58
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-19 07:39
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-10 14:05
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$2	09-23 20:25
will the next claude opus model be released by september 20 2026	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-16 10:19
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-09 08:47
will xagusd dip to 65 by september 14 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$3	09-17 18:37
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $65 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-14 22:22
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-21 22:48
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-14 06:13
will tsla dip to 360 by september 7 2026 from september 10	1	$2	2	+2	No	-$2	09-10 22:37
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-08 00:23
will warsh say pandemic during september press conference 20260909	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	09-15 17:12
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $164 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	09-10 22:35
will xauusd reach 4350 by september 21 2026 from september 23	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$1	09-24 04:27
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-22 06:52
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 27, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-22 15:27
spy closes above 755 on september 17 2026	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	09-17 05:14
Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$1	09-10 02:26
Will John Ternus say "Hardware" during his Apple Keynote?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$2	09-09 16:53
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $132.50 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-20 22:30
will hood reach 117 50 by september 14 2026	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	-$2	09-14 14:14
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-13 22:12
laptop airdrop by september 9	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	09-08 22:12
Will Trump say "Make America Healthy Again" during his remarks in North Carolina?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-16 02:18
spy up or down on september 23 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Down	+$2	09-23 00:17
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $177 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	09-21 14:48
meta close above 550 on august 20 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-19 15:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 22:46:57	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x273051…
11-06 13:08:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xfafd70…
11-06 00:28:37	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x6a9a46…
11-05 13:14:37	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x5e917e…
11-05 02:45:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8ada34…
11-04 06:09:12	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc2e8d0…
11-03 22:00:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x0e1eec…
11-03 11:39:21	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x00fd2d…
11-03 03:38:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3cdc5e…
11-02 19:37:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xe57c6c…
11-02 11:36:06	Will Booking Holdings (BKNG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x554694…
11-02 03:34:51	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on November 2?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xf09e19…
11-01 19:32:13	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xb5b695…
10-28 11:43:47	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x58a540…
10-28 03:38:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x18ff70…
10-27 05:19:53	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x3da0e5…
10-25 09:15:21	Will Royal Caribbean (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa8782b…
10-23 17:18:44	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xcac044…
10-23 08:25:39	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x644505…
10-22 12:23:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x4ea6b9…
10-21 15:03:00	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xf1ad1c…
10-21 07:00:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x5a3648…
10-18 22:58:08	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $352 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc1fb93…
10-18 12:02:20	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb5cd41…
10-18 11:55:03	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x55cc1d…
10-18 00:03:32	Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x6f3a8a…
10-17 15:58:50	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x151707…
10-17 04:18:56	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 22 2026	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xff927d…
10-16 09:22:46	will hood dip to 100 by october 12 2026 from october 15	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xea4109…
10-16 01:08:31	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x45c170…
10-15 14:07:26	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x26be10…
10-15 06:00:38	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe288ed…
10-14 09:52:28	spy up or down on october 14 2026	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xe26215…
10-14 01:37:37	will meta reach 770 by october 12 2026 from october 13	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xae0784…
10-11 16:48:49	Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd48288…
10-09 17:30:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xb5ada9…
10-09 09:22:49	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x262da0…
10-08 06:23:59	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $57 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xffdaf0…
10-07 22:21:40	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xd41f57…
10-06 00:59:25	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x3b4b73…
10-05 16:22:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe2014d…
10-02 15:10:44	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xbd1f99…
10-02 06:03:48	spx up or down on october 2 2026	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xfe5d8e…
10-01 11:49:12	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xdcb204…
10-01 03:46:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1?	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x7a4ee8…
09-30 18:51:36	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd3f834…
09-30 06:08:56	spx up or down on september 30 2026	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x657e03…
09-28 22:05:29	will coin dip to 180 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x575f62…
09-28 14:03:05	will wti dip to 90 in september 2026 from september 23	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x941452…
09-28 05:43:54	will mu dip to 1020 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x850180…
09-27 21:43:26	will xagusd reach 65 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xd6f4c5…
09-27 10:19:57	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x3a22f4…
09-27 01:07:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf17ad4…
09-26 10:34:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x8f9a68…
09-25 13:52:32	wti up or down on september 25 2026	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xe02d2e…
09-25 04:53:32	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x773f0d…
09-24 20:37:53	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $207.50 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x8e1c84…
09-24 12:27:16	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x1b02b7…
09-24 04:27:00	will xauusd reach 4350 by september 21 2026 from september 23	No	BUY	2	65¢	$2	0xde6db4…
09-23 20:25:35	Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	3	44¢	$2	0xa4c58c…
09-23 00:17:55	spy up or down on september 23 2026	Down	BUY	3	46¢	$2	0x7b53a9…
09-22 15:27:03	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x14d699…
09-22 06:52:24	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x1dbd57…
09-21 22:48:36	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	37¢	$2	0x70453d…
09-21 14:48:26	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $177 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x8525b6…
09-21 06:46:47	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$2	0xb0331d…
09-20 22:30:53	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $132.50 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0x0bf651…
09-19 07:39:27	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	No	BUY	4	37¢	$2	0xde42cb…
09-17 18:37:00	will xagusd dip to 65 by september 14 2026	No	BUY	4	35¢	$2	0x96632d…
09-17 05:14:39	spy closes above 755 on september 17 2026	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0xf842bf…
09-16 20:50:55	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	No	BUY	2	72¢	$2	0x36b310…
09-16 10:19:07	will the next claude opus model be released by september 20 2026	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$2	0x667b45…
09-16 02:18:00	Will Trump say "Make America Healthy Again" during his remarks in North Carolina?	No	BUY	4	36¢	$2	0x1d9b52…
09-15 17:12:42	will warsh say pandemic during september press conference 20260909	Yes	BUY	3	44¢	$2	0x9e0932…
09-15 07:58:10	will mu dip to 900 by september 14 2026	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xe2ced7…
09-14 22:22:22	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $65 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xc34312…
09-14 14:14:09	will hood reach 117 50 by september 14 2026	No	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0x007888…
09-14 06:13:39	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	36¢	$2	0x30b4d9…
09-13 22:12:46	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0xc2df91…
09-11 06:37:39	spx up or down on september 11 2026	Up	BUY	2	71¢	$2	0x80527c…
09-10 22:37:04	will tsla dip to 360 by september 7 2026 from september 10	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$2	0x2ef42f…
09-10 22:35:48	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $164 Week of September 7 2026?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x9b48bd…
09-10 14:05:19	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	No	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x92cbc5…
09-10 02:26:10	Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$2	0xf2a1cc…
09-09 17:10:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of September 7 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$2	0x64ba72…
09-09 17:05:39	Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?	Yes	BUY	2	71¢	$2	0x1f7d59…
09-09 16:53:25	Will John Ternus say "Hardware" during his Apple Keynote?	No	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0x75db2d…
09-09 08:47:43	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$2	0x68f61e…
09-08 22:12:04	laptop airdrop by september 9	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x305fd2…
09-08 10:42:01	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$2	0x0b718b…
09-08 00:23:19	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 7 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xa0152a…
09-07 10:08:06	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of September 7 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$2	0xf3a85c…
09-01 05:42:49	will hood reach 117 50 by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0xddde60…
08-30 21:41:13	will spy dip to 760 by august 31 2026	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x9014c0…
08-30 12:34:49	next mythos class model released by september 2 2026	No	BUY	3	46¢	$2	0xf382e2…
08-29 14:43:34	will pltr reach 192 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x36f263…
08-29 14:32:25	will pltr reach 192 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0xfaf328…
08-28 19:14:30	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$2	0x278791…
08-26 23:08:24	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August?	No	BUY	2	71¢	$2	0xed116c…
08-25 02:06:09	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of August 24 2026?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x42fce3…