Generous-Decisionmaking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$32.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.63K

Hit rate

79.5%

Resolved

431

Trades

2,738

lifetime

Volume

$797.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$291

Open exposure

$10.9K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-26 22:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 161 days

Categories

Politics

69% 58% +$17,619

Other

22% 60% +$6,212

Sports

6% 62% +$6,955

Tech

3% 71% +$1,112

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$521

Crypto

0% 50% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 593 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	+5,786	$5,301	95¢	$5.5K	+$182	10-15 21:01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	+12,983	$5,567	30¢	$3.8K	-$1,737	10-18 20:00
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+7,518	$684	6¢	$489	-$195	10-16 16:50
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	+387	$294	91¢	$352	+$58	10-21 19:05
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	+305	$221	95¢	$289	+$69	10-22 21:08
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+298	$155	90¢	$268	+$113	10-01 17:52
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+400	$230	46¢	$183	-$47	06-09 02:43
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	+8	-$6	97¢	$8	+$13	09-16 03:06
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	Yes	+90	$22	1¢	$1	-$22	10-24 12:16
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Yes	+5	$67	6¢	$0	-$67	09-18 19:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump renames AI by September 30?	93	$91.0K	72,350	43,253	+29,097	Yes	+$2,628	09-29 21:19
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	12	$36.8K	18,961	18,961	+0	No	+$1,091	10-26 01:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	23	$34.5K	17,452	18,552	-1,100	Yes	+$199	03-01 03:06
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	31	$30.3K	25,748	25,748	+0	No	+$3,868	06-19 01:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	20	$29.0K	23,812	23,812	+0	Yes	+$5,101	04-07 23:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	46	$27.9K	21,846	21,846	+0	No	-$670	05-29 17:58
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	29	$26.2K	17,196	17,195	+1	Yes	+$579	07-07 19:36
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	21	$21.0K	15,770	15,770	+0	open	—	09-14 22:23
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	20	$16.7K	71,187	1,147	+70,040	No	-$16,112	03-24 21:07
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	11	$15.4K	25,000	12,017	+12,983	open	—	10-18 20:00
Will Trump say "Excursion" or "Journey" this week? (April 20 - 26)	11	$15.2K	15,307	0	+15,307	Yes	+$121	04-21 03:34
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	568	$14.7K	7,483	7,483	+0	Yes	+$237	08-12 22:13
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	46	$14.4K	12,307	12,307	+0	Yes	+$8,042	02-09 03:56
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?	23	$11.3K	10,532	10,516	+16	Yes	-$353	04-02 17:27
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	9	$9.2K	9,805	0	+9,805	No	+$653	02-27 23:56
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	6	$9.0K	5,088	5,088	+0	No	-$133	07-01 00:01
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	26	$9.0K	5,632	5,943	-311	No	+$416	05-20 16:52
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	25	$7.7K	8,565	8,565	+0	Yes	+$161	04-19 19:59
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	5	$7.5K	7,796	0	+7,796	No	+$345	04-26 00:05
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	24	$7.4K	14,277	11,275	+3,002	No	+$2,990	06-17 18:41
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	19	$7.0K	6,488	1,768	+4,720	Yes	+$587	08-12 22:04
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	3	$6.9K	4,756	4,756	+0	No	+$895	01-07 17:36
iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	18	$6.9K	4,603	3,970	+634	No	+$556	07-11 18:41
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	27	$6.6K	17,198	17,198	+0	Yes	+$3,103	08-02 03:51
Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026?	9	$6.3K	4,370	3,583	+788	Yes	+$898	04-03 02:02
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	7	$5.8K	3,888	3,888	+0	No	-$152	10-12 20:10
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?	14	$5.4K	14,117	14,117	+0	No	-$5,145	05-19 20:19
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?	8	$5.3K	2,894	2,848	+46	Yes	+$332	04-29 18:33
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	3	$5.3K	5,786	0	+5,786	open	—	10-15 21:01
will all of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	3	$5.2K	6,050	0	+6,050	No	+$898	01-21 19:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 22:28:14	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	450	73¢	$328	0x0626fc…
10-26 22:28:12	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xaff108…
10-26 22:28:12	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x427482…
10-26 22:28:12	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x374192…
10-26 21:08:18	Will Pere Romeu win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Women's Coach of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x8e2c30…
10-26 20:56:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	4,231	93¢	$3,918	0xe241c3…
10-26 20:45:59	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	SELL	300	3¢	$9	0x880ea6…
10-26 20:45:35	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	SELL	389	3¢	$12	0xbaa768…
10-26 20:45:27	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	SELL	260	3¢	$9	0xf0cecc…
10-26 20:45:27	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xcf9b48…
10-26 19:27:42	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	BUY	989	5¢	$47	0xa6d840…
10-26 19:00:30	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	299	15¢	$45	0x053db9…
10-26 17:32:17	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,534	72¢	$1,105	0x346c61…
10-26 17:28:06	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	969	72¢	$697	0x0eeebe…
10-26 17:15:47	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,011	67¢	$681	0x5b0ded…
10-26 17:12:57	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	660	67¢	$443	0x5fcb53…
10-26 17:12:51	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	140	67¢	$94	0x2ecfeb…
10-26 17:12:17	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	504	67¢	$339	0xfc4653…
10-26 17:12:03	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	460	67¢	$309	0xc99023…
10-26 01:42:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	18,961	100¢	$18,942	0x0b7d19…
10-25 23:39:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	345	94¢	$325	0xf972ce…
10-25 23:39:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4,445	94¢	$4,188	0xbe0384…
10-25 23:39:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,990	94¢	$1,875	0xfcfa70…
10-25 23:39:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	345	94¢	$325	0xa6044e…
10-25 23:39:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4,627	94¢	$4,359	0xa3a7c5…
10-25 23:39:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	345	94¢	$325	0x307809…
10-25 23:39:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$471	0x15b84c…
10-25 23:39:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	93	94¢	$88	0xf552c5…
10-25 23:39:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	150	94¢	$141	0xc89d52…
10-25 23:39:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,121	94¢	$1,056	0x40b3c5…
10-25 23:37:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	5,000	94¢	$4,700	0xaa6423…
10-25 21:44:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	2,094	10¢	$209	0x75da8b…
10-25 18:12:32	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	2,000	54¢	$1,080	0xa4f43a…
10-25 15:43:05	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,030	89¢	$1,810	0x85f96a…
10-24 21:05:57	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	2,000	70¢	$1,400	0xc882db…
10-24 20:54:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	5,358	11¢	$589	0x7e13c3…
10-24 20:27:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	7,452	11¢	$820	0xc888ce…
10-24 14:29:08	Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?	No	BUY	118	5¢	$6	0x581962…
10-24 12:16:41	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	Yes	BUY	90	25¢	$22	0xcafd61…
10-23 17:53:23	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0xdfb857…
10-22 21:08:12	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	205	72¢	$148	0xe77147…
10-22 18:59:06	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?	No	BUY	708	74¢	$524	0x2cce62…
10-22 18:54:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	905	79¢	$715	0xa93ed8…
10-22 17:50:24	will wti reach 100 in october 2026 from october 22	No	BUY	73	10¢	$7	0x825779…
10-22 17:50:17	will wti reach 100 in october 2026 from october 22	No	BUY	80	9¢	$7	0x53c5fb…
10-22 12:30:06	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x1c38be…
10-21 19:05:06	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	387	76¢	$294	0x0963fd…
10-20 18:15:14	Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?	Yes	BUY	371	7¢	$25	0x1aa259…
10-20 00:22:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elizabeth Warren by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	315	77¢	$242	0x8b6638…
10-19 18:22:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	905	85¢	$768	0x69c9a5…
10-18 20:00:11	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	10,000	41¢	$4,104	0x84c13d…
10-16 22:55:35	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	2,788	57¢	$1,589	0xb0d97d…
10-16 22:55:29	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	SELL	11	54¢	$6	0x92b5fb…
10-16 22:55:29	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	SELL	174	54¢	$94	0x6e4e5e…
10-16 22:55:29	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	SELL	11	54¢	$6	0x0d5bc9…
10-16 22:55:20	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	SELL	46	54¢	$25	0xd2bc32…
10-16 22:55:11	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	SELL	1,473	53¢	$781	0x72c8f8…
10-16 22:39:23	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	1,131	52¢	$588	0x85b4ac…
10-16 22:39:08	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	584	54¢	$315	0x6791af…
10-16 17:33:03	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,348	90¢	$2,104	0x7e0779…
10-16 17:33:02	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,608	90¢	$1,440	0x6ca519…
10-16 16:50:18	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,444	40¢	$978	0x5fab52…
10-16 16:33:18	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	90	42¢	$38	0x9a0344…
10-16 16:31:30	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	137	42¢	$57	0xfbc246…
10-16 16:27:13	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	80	42¢	$34	0x38e464…
10-16 16:27:12	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	18	42¢	$8	0x7251f6…
10-16 16:26:48	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	71	42¢	$30	0x55d5f5…
10-16 16:23:40	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x659032…
10-16 01:39:28	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	1,208	40¢	$489	0x3a0eae…
10-16 01:36:37	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	410	42¢	$172	0xc3fcbf…
10-16 01:32:15	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	290	31¢	$91	0x2e63aa…
10-16 01:22:00	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	290	8¢	$23	0x6f078c…
10-15 22:11:24	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 15?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$33	0x5c5d94…
10-15 21:08:12	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	10,000	42¢	$4,200	0x5b96b6…
10-15 21:01:42	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	2,586	94¢	$2,421	0xb0f60a…
10-15 21:00:56	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	15,000	42¢	$6,300	0xe862d9…
10-12 20:10:21	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	SELL	1,829	68¢	$1,239	0xc18b7f…
10-12 20:06:02	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	SELL	51	75¢	$38	0x427984…
10-12 20:06:02	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x213164…
10-12 19:29:50	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	SELL	2,000	78¢	$1,560	0xa6d024…
10-12 16:23:47	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	3,222	77¢	$2,475	0xc674a7…
10-12 16:20:57	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	500	78¢	$388	0x86ad16…
10-12 16:03:08	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	166	79¢	$132	0x8d7650…
10-04 22:36:13	Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?	No	BUY	501	6¢	$30	0x8d5f2e…
10-02 20:02:35	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Letitia James by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x1f7aec…
10-02 04:29:47	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,488	18¢	$264	0x67eadc…
10-02 01:43:11	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	666	20¢	$133	0x19b275…
10-02 01:18:47	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,001	19¢	$190	0x9556d7…
10-01 20:42:36	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,305	19¢	$250	0x34787a…
10-01 18:32:05	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xee14bc…
10-01 17:52:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	68¢	$122	0x046c58…
10-01 17:49:59	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,800	68¢	$1,224	0x46110c…
10-01 17:45:56	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x9b672f…
10-01 17:43:30	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	68¢	$27	0x096553…
10-01 17:38:09	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	15¢	$750	0xc931ea…
10-01 17:37:51	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	403	14¢	$57	0xc9cb4c…
10-01 17:30:24	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0xf816f8…
10-01 17:27:35	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,348	66¢	$1,550	0xe4f309…
09-30 18:59:17	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	32¢	$82	0x4ee4e5…
09-29 21:19:32	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	SELL	2,764	100¢	$2,753	0x3c46e0…