Damaged-Duck — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

7.9%

Resolved

Trades

190

lifetime

Volume

$18.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$96

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-17

last 06-25 13:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

44% — —

Politics

43% — —

Sports

13% 50% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+0	$0	74¢	$0	+$0	06-20 13:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	4	$2.4K	1,894	1,894	+0	open	—	04-19 18:26
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$2.1K	1,193	1,193	+0	No	+$0	04-17 08:01
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	4	$1.9K	2,772	2,772	+0	open	—	04-18 19:26
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	10	$1.5K	794	794	+0	open	—	06-06 05:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	12	$855	882	882	+0	open	—	05-30 15:18
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	10	$806	660	660	+0	open	—	06-10 15:35
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	8	$621	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	06-02 10:43
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	7	$483	764	764	+0	open	—	06-23 22:37
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	4	$454	309	309	+0	open	—	06-20 05:13
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	3	$446	240	240	+0	open	—	06-22 21:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$444	435	435	+0	open	—	06-05 07:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$442	417	417	+0	open	—	06-20 13:18
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	5	$431	310	310	+0	open	—	06-19 22:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$419	216	216	+0	open	—	04-18 01:55
Will Alberta join the US?	10	$418	697	697	+0	open	—	06-06 08:56
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	4	$409	209	209	+0	open	—	06-03 02:06
israel closes its airspace by july 15	3	$396	219	219	+0	open	—	06-20 21:33
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	7	$383	475	475	+0	open	—	05-29 04:15
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$357	185	185	+0	open	—	06-09 12:17
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$330	434	434	+0	open	—	06-18 00:42
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$328	513	513	+0	open	—	06-11 01:53
israel closes its airspace by july 31	4	$303	174	174	+0	open	—	06-25 13:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	3	$263	302	302	+0	open	—	06-09 23:05
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	8	$233	633	633	+0	open	—	06-21 18:42
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	1	$218	220	0	+220	open	—	05-30 22:03
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	4	$187	193	193	+0	open	—	04-24 00:51
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$181	6,148	6,148	+0	No	+$4	04-19 07:18
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	4	$150	111	111	+0	open	—	06-09 15:59
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	4	$128	962	962	+0	open	—	06-17 01:03
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	2	$117	417	417	+0	open	—	06-24 22:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 13:00:19	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	SELL	14	87¢	$12	0xe5d76f…
06-25 13:00:17	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	SELL	160	87¢	$139	0x40248d…
06-25 11:18:41	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	170	87¢	$148	0xfd80a0…
06-25 11:18:41	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	4	87¢	$4	0xd15554…
06-24 22:26:29	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	417	14¢	$58	0xa3b27d…
06-24 18:34:52	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	417	14¢	$58	0xd8d26b…
06-23 22:37:25	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	551	9¢	$50	0xeb7e04…
06-23 18:39:49	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	551	10¢	$55	0x5928dc…
06-22 21:48:13	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	SELL	240	93¢	$223	0x70f07d…
06-22 20:33:13	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	184	93¢	$171	0x2753ba…
06-22 20:33:13	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	56	93¢	$52	0x077cf7…
06-21 18:42:22	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	18¢	$21	0xcfae4c…
06-21 18:42:22	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	18¢	$6	0x1d5314…
06-21 17:44:41	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	18¢	$26	0xbb2694…
06-21 17:44:41	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xa3e779…
06-21 02:19:40	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	245	18¢	$44	0xe4063e…
06-21 02:19:40	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	18¢	$17	0xa4c140…
06-21 02:19:40	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	145	18¢	$26	0x4ea2d4…
06-21 02:18:13	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	483	19¢	$92	0x4c8d35…
06-20 21:33:55	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	SELL	26	91¢	$24	0xff310b…
06-20 21:33:55	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	SELL	193	91¢	$176	0xd813d0…
06-20 19:06:19	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	219	90¢	$197	0x304951…
06-20 13:18:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	21	53¢	$11	0x1a5264…
06-20 13:18:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	42	53¢	$22	0xb7d7fd…
06-20 13:18:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x58bf96…
06-20 08:36:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	349	53¢	$185	0xe3d01f…
06-20 06:35:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	417	53¢	$221	0xe54cf2…
06-20 05:13:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	54	73¢	$39	0xf2e89e…
06-20 05:13:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	188	73¢	$137	0x65ffd5…
06-20 05:13:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	67	73¢	$49	0x0667d3…
06-20 01:37:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	309	74¢	$229	0xbc886f…
06-19 22:04:44	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	212	75¢	$159	0xffb9cb…
06-19 22:04:44	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	93	75¢	$70	0x45e79c…
06-19 22:04:44	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x21d98f…
06-19 18:15:04	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	154	64¢	$99	0xaa7717…
06-19 18:15:02	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xba8472…
06-19 00:03:55	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	89¢	$15	0xbfd223…
06-19 00:03:55	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	184	89¢	$164	0xa8efa6…
06-19 00:03:55	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	89¢	$11	0x8893e2…
06-18 21:20:20	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0xe7f349…
06-18 21:20:20	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	192	89¢	$171	0xb31a79…
06-18 00:42:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	377	38¢	$143	0x1412d8…
06-17 21:55:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	24	38¢	$9	0x10d502…
06-17 21:46:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	33	38¢	$13	0x87c193…
06-17 18:16:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	434	38¢	$165	0x7e329f…
06-17 01:03:59	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	633	7¢	$44	0x2b5bd7…
06-17 01:02:34	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	633	7¢	$44	0x93fa99…
06-15 20:26:36	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	329	6¢	$20	0x5463a3…
06-15 16:23:03	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	329	6¢	$20	0xd29217…
06-11 01:53:21	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0x9b793a…
06-11 01:53:21	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	33¢	$3	0x505b5b…
06-11 01:53:21	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	500	33¢	$165	0x1e434b…
06-11 01:51:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	21	31¢	$7	0x2377a8…
06-11 01:51:25	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	492	31¢	$153	0x265f05…
06-10 17:20:57	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	105	80¢	$84	0xd42f0e…
06-10 15:35:31	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	88	97¢	$86	0xee60d4…
06-10 15:35:31	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	61	97¢	$59	0xd76a68…
06-10 15:35:31	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x377103…
06-10 11:15:51	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	97¢	$117	0xf21ad9…
06-10 11:15:51	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0xae482d…
06-09 23:05:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	56	44¢	$25	0x30d2a7…
06-09 23:05:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	246	44¢	$108	0x29e3c5…
06-09 21:28:04	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	302	43¢	$130	0x2edd57…
06-09 15:59:33	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	67¢	$34	0x382a87…
06-09 15:59:33	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	53	67¢	$36	0x06c0d0…
06-09 15:59:31	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0x1ee08a…
06-09 13:50:36	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	111	68¢	$75	0xf28835…
06-09 12:17:34	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	185	97¢	$179	0x1490c4…
06-09 07:05:01	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	139	96¢	$134	0xbdb6df…
06-09 07:05:01	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0x07b341…
06-09 01:51:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	32¢	$6	0x250eec…
06-09 01:51:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	32¢	$23	0x08c23c…
06-09 00:25:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	33¢	$30	0x1a06a4…
06-06 08:56:09	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xf9fb2e…
06-06 08:56:09	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	29	95¢	$28	0xbbd0bf…
06-06 08:56:09	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	157	95¢	$150	0x69b934…
06-06 05:40:36	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0xd712a3…
06-06 05:40:36	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	174	95¢	$166	0x9f6d4b…
06-06 05:16:54	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0x5a606e…
06-06 04:14:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	89	97¢	$86	0x80535f…
06-06 04:14:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	97	97¢	$94	0x26fa8f…
06-06 00:42:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	208	97¢	$202	0x46c8de…
06-05 14:56:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	35	2¢	$1	0x07affd…
06-05 14:55:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	232	2¢	$6	0xc0b6e1…
06-05 14:55:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	116	2¢	$3	0xbb994c…
06-05 12:20:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	383	2¢	$9	0xd82384…
06-05 07:46:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	435	51¢	$222	0x31b39c…
06-05 05:47:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	435	51¢	$222	0x364380…
06-04 14:40:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	64	31¢	$20	0xbff6a3…
06-04 12:26:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	64	33¢	$21	0xca6f85…
06-03 21:13:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	47	5¢	$2	0x4387b3…
06-03 08:57:05	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	16	5¢	$1	0xd6486c…
06-03 08:57:05	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	39	5¢	$2	0xa9e9de…
06-03 06:11:41	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xdfb2c1…
06-03 06:11:41	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0x909865…
06-03 06:11:41	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0x4691f5…
06-03 02:06:03	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	174	98¢	$170	0xe37ba0…
06-02 23:41:10	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x59405b…
06-02 21:50:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	184	98¢	$180	0x5d9b5c…
06-02 21:50:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x389ac1…