Damaged-Duck — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

7.9%

Resolved

Trades

130

lifetime

Volume

$13.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$106

Open exposure

$218

1 position

First seen

2026-04-17

last 06-09 23:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

44% — —

Other

39% — —

Sports

17% 50% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No		+220	$218	99¢	$218	+$0	05-30 22:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	4	$2.4K	1,894	1,894	+0	open	—	04-19 18:26
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$2.1K	1,193	1,193	+0	No	+$0	04-17 08:01
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	4	$1.9K	2,772	2,772	+0	open	—	04-18 19:26
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	10	$1.5K	794	794	+0	open	—	06-06 05:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	12	$855	882	882	+0	open	—	05-30 15:18
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	8	$621	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	06-02 10:43
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	5	$466	485	485	+0	open	—	06-01 18:06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$444	435	435	+0	open	—	06-05 07:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$419	216	216	+0	open	—	04-18 01:55
Will Alberta join the US?	10	$418	697	697	+0	open	—	06-06 08:56
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	4	$409	209	209	+0	open	—	06-03 02:06
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	7	$383	475	475	+0	open	—	05-29 04:15
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$357	185	185	+0	open	—	06-09 12:17
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	3	$263	302	302	+0	open	—	06-09 23:05
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	1	$218	220	0	+220	open	—	05-30 22:03
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	4	$187	193	193	+0	open	—	04-24 00:51
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$181	6,148	6,148	+0	No	+$4	04-19 07:18
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	4	$150	111	111	+0	open	—	06-09 15:59
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	3	$110	343	343	+0	open	—	05-21 10:11
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$91	656	656	+0	open	—	05-28 22:41
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$65	2,024	2,024	+0	open	—	04-19 01:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	3	$60	92	92	+0	open	—	06-09 01:51
will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	4	$48	196	196	+0	open	—	04-25 03:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$41	64	64	+0	open	—	06-04 14:40
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	3	$33	169	169	+0	open	—	04-24 16:03
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$19	300	300	+0	open	—	05-23 21:02
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	4	$18	383	383	+0	open	—	06-05 14:56
Iran leadership change by June 30?	6	$10	102	102	+0	open	—	06-03 21:13
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	2	$5	185	185	+0	open	—	05-28 00:48
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-23 19:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 23:05:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	56	44¢	$25	0x30d2a7…
06-09 23:05:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	246	44¢	$108	0x29e3c5…
06-09 21:28:04	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	302	43¢	$130	0x2edd57…
06-09 15:59:33	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	67¢	$34	0x382a87…
06-09 15:59:33	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	53	67¢	$36	0x06c0d0…
06-09 15:59:31	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0x1ee08a…
06-09 13:50:36	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	111	68¢	$75	0xf28835…
06-09 12:17:34	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	185	97¢	$179	0x1490c4…
06-09 07:05:01	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	139	96¢	$134	0xbdb6df…
06-09 07:05:01	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0x07b341…
06-09 01:51:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	32¢	$6	0x250eec…
06-09 01:51:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	32¢	$23	0x08c23c…
06-09 00:25:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	33¢	$30	0x1a06a4…
06-06 08:56:09	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xf9fb2e…
06-06 08:56:09	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	29	95¢	$28	0xbbd0bf…
06-06 08:56:09	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	157	95¢	$150	0x69b934…
06-06 05:40:36	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0xd712a3…
06-06 05:40:36	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	174	95¢	$166	0x9f6d4b…
06-06 05:16:54	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0x5a606e…
06-06 04:14:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	89	97¢	$86	0x80535f…
06-06 04:14:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	97	97¢	$94	0x26fa8f…
06-06 00:42:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	208	97¢	$202	0x46c8de…
06-05 14:56:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	35	2¢	$1	0x07affd…
06-05 14:55:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	232	2¢	$6	0xc0b6e1…
06-05 14:55:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	116	2¢	$3	0xbb994c…
06-05 12:20:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	383	2¢	$9	0xd82384…
06-05 07:46:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	435	51¢	$222	0x31b39c…
06-05 05:47:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	435	51¢	$222	0x364380…
06-04 14:40:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	64	31¢	$20	0xbff6a3…
06-04 12:26:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	64	33¢	$21	0xca6f85…
06-03 21:13:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	47	5¢	$2	0x4387b3…
06-03 08:57:05	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	16	5¢	$1	0xd6486c…
06-03 08:57:05	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	39	5¢	$2	0xa9e9de…
06-03 06:11:41	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xdfb2c1…
06-03 06:11:41	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0x909865…
06-03 06:11:41	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0x4691f5…
06-03 02:06:03	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	174	98¢	$170	0xe37ba0…
06-02 23:41:10	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x59405b…
06-02 21:50:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	184	98¢	$180	0x5d9b5c…
06-02 21:50:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x389ac1…
06-02 10:43:13	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	31¢	$2	0x4a4b5f…
06-02 10:43:13	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	70	31¢	$22	0x3ecb4e…
06-02 10:43:11	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	489	31¢	$152	0x323c17…
06-02 09:33:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	567	31¢	$176	0x0faec9…
06-02 07:00:58	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	110	31¢	$34	0xbe7947…
06-02 07:00:58	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xb5edca…
06-02 07:00:56	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	275	31¢	$85	0xcfc02c…
06-02 03:27:54	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	435	31¢	$135	0x1ed268…
06-01 18:06:40	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	85	2¢	$1	0xced949…
06-01 18:06:40	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	161	2¢	$2	0xbd0e2d…
06-01 14:35:09	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	246	2¢	$6	0x728a02…
05-31 12:02:03	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	110	4¢	$5	0xa78c54…
05-31 12:02:03	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	198	4¢	$8	0x9e6d33…
05-31 12:02:03	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	95	4¢	$4	0x763a0f…
05-31 12:02:03	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	97	4¢	$4	0x40a902…
05-31 10:36:35	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$22	0xe0e041…
05-30 22:03:30	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	220	99¢	$218	0x33d37f…
05-30 15:18:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0xa912e5…
05-30 15:18:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	192	96¢	$184	0xa4c2c8…
05-30 12:43:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	196	96¢	$188	0x84d6a3…
05-30 12:26:53	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	236	97¢	$228	0x318a29…
05-30 10:40:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	236	97¢	$228	0x31e8d6…
05-30 04:13:19	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	239	96¢	$228	0x0beaca…
05-30 01:42:28	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	239	95¢	$228	0xc74b5d…
05-29 20:35:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	235	97¢	$228	0x4953c2…
05-29 18:24:32	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	235	97¢	$227	0xac8dea…
05-29 09:50:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0x7f3c8e…
05-29 09:50:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	54	94¢	$51	0x20900d…
05-29 09:50:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	27	94¢	$25	0x10810f…
05-29 06:45:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	121	95¢	$115	0x9e8c66…
05-29 04:15:33	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	117	2¢	$2	0x8dfb17…
05-29 04:15:31	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	165	2¢	$3	0x87012e…
05-29 03:08:05	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	282	2¢	$5	0x74716e…
05-28 22:41:27	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	656	7¢	$46	0x14bd27…
05-28 20:31:57	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	656	7¢	$45	0x473fb1…
05-28 15:52:25	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	115	96¢	$110	0xe7ed11…
05-28 11:42:43	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	115	96¢	$110	0xf7ef95…
05-28 00:48:20	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	185	1¢	$2	0x747d8a…
05-27 23:07:41	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	185	1¢	$2	0x5d999c…
05-26 12:13:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	37	20¢	$8	0xef47a3…
05-26 12:13:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	216	20¢	$44	0x6c10a8…
05-26 12:13:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	135	20¢	$28	0x68979b…
05-26 12:13:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	177	20¢	$36	0x55b37e…
05-26 10:03:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	565	24¢	$136	0x3dcbc7…
05-25 00:11:33	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x9320e8…
05-25 00:11:33	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	161	98¢	$157	0x7e8abf…
05-25 00:11:33	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0x6fea2f…
05-24 22:23:12	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	193	96¢	$186	0xe517a1…
05-23 21:02:21	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	225	3¢	$8	0xeaa526…
05-23 21:02:21	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	75	3¢	$3	0x47661d…
05-23 19:16:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$8	0xa78c19…
05-21 10:11:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	178	17¢	$30	0xff0ca8…
05-21 10:11:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	165	17¢	$28	0x13cc5e…
05-21 08:54:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	343	15¢	$51	0xd74550…
04-25 03:26:10	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	SELL	196	12¢	$24	0x03f9c0…
04-25 00:55:16	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	54	12¢	$7	0xf6d1dc…
04-25 00:55:16	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	71	12¢	$9	0x927a1e…
04-25 00:55:16	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	71	12¢	$9	0x4e53e5…
04-24 16:03:52	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	169	9¢	$16	0x1884b4…
04-24 13:52:58	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	10¢	$9	0x816faa…